Rumor: Foundation Series Expanded to 20,000 Units (Claims Phone Customer Service Rep)

[zoomer0056]

Someone from Reddit

This is where I stopped reading.

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[VR Driving]

20k units is not a lot, Foundation series is more like the dealer add-on bundle to mark up the car more. However, with the 20k units number popped up. I think this is the number that Tesla believes they can sell the Cybertruck at 120k. This is reasonable considering this is the amount of Model X they sell annually.

Also, by the time orders open for non-foundation, The cost to own the Cybertruck goes down, you can think of this as the first price adjustment.

Currently is the most expensive time to buy a Cybertruck, but it is also the best time to get one.

 

[bruce91748]

Foundation Series = Tesla's own ADM.

 

[Art138]

It actually is.

For one, 2 million reservations doesn't mean 2 million units will be sold. It doesn't even mean there are 2 million active reservations. It's actually quite reasonable to believe that 85%+ will or already have canceled their reservation. For reasons such as not being about to afford a 60-100k truck when they might have been budgeting for the 40k, or the fact that the economy is in a far worse state than at reveal, or the fact that there is competition in the electric truck market that even beat the Cybetruck to production.

If you look at the Ford Lightning, the electric version of the F150, the most popular truck and even the most popular vehicle in America, it had 200,000 reservations. Though after 1 year of sales and no where near even 100,000 units sold, dealerships had stock at the ready for anyone to buy and take home. Even now, when they should easily have more than 100,000 reservation holders eagerly awaiting their spot in line, Ford announced that they won't be increasing production and will just build to meet demand. It's also worth noting that this includes a model that is significantly cheaper (while not being as nice) as the current Cybertrucks being sold.

If you look at Tesla. The Model Y is the most popular Tesla and actually one of the best selling vehicles around. Tesla even sells more than 10x the amount of Model Y's than they do of Model S. This is most certainly because of the price. The model Y is a reasonably priced vehicle and people are at least rational enough to realize they can be happy with a Model Y and not break the bank instead of selling a kidney to get the Model S

I don’t know if you can compare the Ford lightning, Rivian, or for that matter any other truck marketing woes to the CT. The aforementioned cater to diehard truck fans and a more crowded field. The Cybertruck,at least for now,is in a field of its own attracting enthusiasts from different driving disciplines. For me,never owned a truck and could care less how many sheets of ply wood it can carry. It will be interesting to determine how many potential buyers were generated after the recent event {120xxxxx forward}. That might gauge better Interest.

 

[davelloydbrown]

At this rate, the regular versions will be the rare ones

yes, 20 k isn't very exclusive.

 

[jerhenderson]

It actually is.

For one, 2 million reservations doesn't mean 2 million units will be sold. It doesn't even mean there are 2 million active reservations. It's actually quite reasonable to believe that 85%+ will or already have canceled their reservation. For reasons such as not being about to afford a 60-100k truck when they might have been budgeting for the 40k, or the fact that the economy is in a far worse state than at reveal, or the fact that there is competition in the electric truck market that even beat the Cybetruck to production.

If you look at the Ford Lightning, the electric version of the F150, the most popular truck and even the most popular vehicle in America, it had 200,000 reservations. Though after 1 year of sales and no where near even 100,000 units sold, dealerships had stock at the ready for anyone to buy and take home. Even now, when they should easily have more than 100,000 reservation holders eagerly awaiting their spot in line, Ford announced that they won't be increasing production and will just build to meet demand. It's also worth noting that this includes a model that is significantly cheaper (while not being as nice) as the current Cybertrucks being sold.

If you look at Tesla. The Model Y is the most popular Tesla and actually one of the best selling vehicles around. Tesla even sells more than 10x the amount of Model Y's than they do of Model S. This is most certainly because of the price. The model Y is a reasonably priced vehicle and people are at least rational enough to realize they can be happy with a Model Y and not break the bank instead of selling a kidney to get the Model S.

So I think with the Cybertruck, the amount of reservation holders that will stay are probably going to be in the 5-15% range, which still leaves 100,000-300,000 people. And out of those people, I think many of them, probably about half, will be waiting on the 60k Cybertruck. Out of the remaining people that will get the AWD/Beast, I still think that the vast majority would rather sit back a few months longer to save 20k.

I'm not saying the Cybertruck won't be successful, but it will be an expensive vehicle and with the current economy, I think if Tesla does well with production in the first year, they could fulfill all AWD and Cyberbeast reservations made before launch, by around mid 2025.

I understand the Lightening comparison, but I don't think it's a good comparison.

As to the Tesla comparison, the difference here is that we're not talking about another car, but it's first truck. I could have bought a MY, but I'm waiting for a truck. I don't think I'm alone in this reason. the truck market in North America is ginormous, so I don't think 20k trucks is a lot as they tend to be an expensive vehicle to begin with. check out ICE truck prices - it's very easy to get to CT pricing with them.

 

[jerhenderson]

The markets are high..inflation is getting inline and retail sales are high. New jobs added have been high. Where is this bad economy other than on fox.

Bingo.

 

[Balthezor]

Foundation Series = Tesla's own ADM.

I disagree. At least you get some stuff with it. The dealer ADM is the salesman patting you in the ass for bending over and taking their shit and being an idiot. At least this money goes to Tesla and not a shitty dealer.

 

[steezymcfresh]

It's crazy how a random Reddit post has generated all for this discussion.

 

[Gigahorse]

It's crazy how a random Reddit post has generated all for this discussion.

The post just got people to connect the dots between the large number of people who have ordered and the numbers of new emails going out and it sure seems like WAY over 1,000
At this point it may be over 20,000

 

[carsly]

If I'm Tesla I'd have the Foundation Series, the Seldon Series, the Darth Vadar Series (all in vantablack) and whatever other special editions I can come up with. Start with a $20K premium, drop to $15K for the next series, $10K for the one after that and so on.

This isn't a new playbook BTW. Ever see how many 'special editions' FCA has devised for the decade-old Challenger and Charger? Or how about Porsche with the 911 and Cayman/Boxter? Or perhaps the brand Tesla is most directly emulating - the Corvette.

Much like the Corvette, Cybertruck is becoming its own brand. Related to, but different from, the mother ship. Good on Tesla for soaking as much demand as they can using special editions/series/whatevs to generate incremental profit for shareholders.

IMHO the Foundation Series is a pretty solid buy with V2H equipment, FSD and other features. But if you don't like it just wait for the next special series or the eventual regular versions. No harm done.

 

[Startreknerd]

You can produce ~ one CT pack or two Model Ys by the pack size. A constraint of only 24k CT worth of 4680s mean they could only have produced 48k 4680 Model Ys/year. But they were at the rate of 260k 4680 Model Ys per year.

At the observed pack rate, they could produce 130k CT and zero 4680 Ys or 65k CT and 100k Ys, or 50k CT and 140k Ys.

There is no pack bottle neck at this time.

 

[CyberMoose]

I don’t know if you can compare the Ford lightning, Rivian, or for that matter any other truck marketing woes to the CT. The aforementioned cater to diehard truck fans and a more crowded field. The Cybertruck,at least for now,is in a field of its own attracting enthusiasts from different driving disciplines. For me,never owned a truck and could care less how many sheets of ply wood it can carry. It will be interesting to determine how many potential buyers were generated after the recent event {120xxxxx forward}. That might gauge better Interest.

I'm not just commenting on the people who wanted a Cybertruck and then switched to a lightning or a rivian. While I'm sure there are some, that's just one factor. I would actually argue that the single largest reason for the absolutely massive number of reservations is because of the 40k reveal price. You put the Cybertruck, which is way roomier, better utility, better features and doesn't have paint to scratch or chip and say that it will be cheaper than basically all other 4 door trucks on the market, everyone is going to want one.

It's also worth noting that while it won't just be truck people going for the cybertruck, many Tesla owners, at least the bulk of them, live in cities. While the Cybertruck has gotten smaller to make it similar size the the f150 and it has better turning due to the rear wheels turning the other way at low speeds, it's still the size of a truck. I worked in the city for years and I didn't see many trucks. Will there be more? probably. but I think a large portion of potential Cybertruck buyers will wait to see it's capabilities before dropping 80k.

But still, it comes down to price. At 40k, you are competing with the same cars that the Model Y is competing with, and offering a lot more utility. At 80k, you are competing with similar electric trucks, the model x, the model s, and other luxury car models.

I don't see any reason Tesla will drop the price on the Cybertruck until demand slows down. I will be shocked if Tesla gets past 100k AWD/Beast deliveries and still has enough demand to maintain those prices. I personally think that we won't even get through 2025 before Tesla drops the price at least 5k.

And I say all this as someone who has wanted a Cybertruck since it rolled out on stage. I would immediately buy a non foundation series if one was offered to me for 80k.

 

[CyberMoose]

I understand the Lightening comparison, but I don't think it's a good comparison.

As to the Tesla comparison, the difference here is that we're not talking about another car, but it's first truck. I could have bought a MY, but I'm waiting for a truck. I don't think I'm alone in this reason. the truck market in North America is ginormous, so I don't think 20k trucks is a lot as they tend to be an expensive vehicle to begin with. check out ICE truck prices - it's very easy to get to CT pricing with them.

It's easy to get to the Cybertruck pricing with ICE trucks, but just because the F150 is the best selling truck, doesn't mean the 80k versions of those are responsible for it being the best selling truck.

We all see expensive trucks all the time, most of them by people that don't need trucks, and the Cybertruck will be no exception to that statistic. But I think the majority of trucks are the cheapest version of the 4 door trucks, which will be similar price to the RWD Cybetruck. I also think that most people will be financing their Cybertrucks, and it's not really the most rational decision to get something that costs 20k on top of your truck, just to get it earlier.

Even I could justify that expense a bit since I do have FSD and will have it on my Cybertruck,. But for some people who don't want FSD, don't want the home backup option, that 20k price tag is a huge expense. Of course there will be some people who get it just to get this wait over with. I personally won't even get the Foundation series if it's offered to me because even after FSD and accessories, it's about 6k on top of the price I would pay to get the foundation series and I would much rather spend that on a vacation.

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