RUMOR: Some Reservation Holders Are Receiving Delivery Dates

happy intruder

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I'm sorry, my snark was too well disguised. I fall victim to Poe's Law again. But just so you know, I reserve the 🤪 emoji only for my most outlandish comments. I actually thought your comment was the most insightful refutation of the posted rumor. There is NO WAY anyone would be getting a delivery date without price and specs being widely available.

I agree with you, I was just being silly. 😃
hey...I am sorry.....I did not mean to be offensive.....I guess we are all on the edge about the CT after 3.5 yrs of waiting.....seem like Tesla is saying all is well and all is being built, but we are just being kept in the dark as to price and config......sorry I mis-judged your sense of humor.....have a good day.....
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RonM

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Maybe we are not 📖reading📖 this right! Could there be something more sinister going on and the government is keeping us in the dark? All 👨‍⚕️physicians👨‍⚕️ are getting the CTs first because of an impending 🧟‍♀️ 🧟‍♂️ZOMBIE ATTACK🧟‍♂️🧟‍♀️..............
 

charliemagpie

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There is paint.
There is no chance of them being in australia for a long time aside from some imported through other means
You are right, if projected capacity is still only 250,000 in 2025, I will be extending my China stay lol.
 

Mini2nut

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Don’t fret about your place in line. Once the revised MSRP’s are announced a lot of reservation holders may be dropping out.
 

intimidator

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Don’t fret about your place in line. Once the revised MSRP’s are announced a lot of reservation holders may be dropping out.
Ford apparently is experiencing that with the Ford Lightning.
Sure, they had a "long line" in 2021 and 2022 because they didn't deliver that many.
In fact, in 2022 Ford only delivered about 14,000 Lightnings. So of course you will have a number of buyers in the queue.

However, if Ford ramps up and builds 100,000 Lightnings in 2023, will the demand still dramatically exceed supply, given the current pricing on the Lightning? It remains to be seen. I have my doubts. $80,000 EV pickups, in my opinion, only have a limited number of buyers willing to close on a sale. Maybe it is 100,000 a year? Maybe it is 200,000 a year? More? But it will be very interesting once Cybertrucks, Rams, Silverado and Lightnings are all available to purchase.
 


mhaze

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fritter63 said:
Friend of a friend of an anonymous person ? Not exactly first hand reporting.

Then again, entire religions have been launched on less reliable testimony......
[/QUOTE]

Wait …. This isn’t a religion ???
 
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alan auerbach

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Don’t fret about your place in line. Once the revised MSRP’s are announced a lot of reservation holders may be dropping out.
Or they may offer their place-in-line to others for a price.
 


cvalue13

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However, if Ford ramps up and builds 100,000 Lightnings in 2023, will the demand still dramatically exceed supply, given the current pricing on the Lightning? It remains to be seen. I have my doubts. $80,000 EV pickups, in my opinion, only have a limited number of buyers willing to close on a sale.
hell no - and i say this as a Lightning owner

I think any of Ford’s current assertions about eg building 80,000 units in 2023 have to be read one of two ways:

(1) “if we decide to revise low-end trim production allocation and price” or

(2) “but many of those will not be retail units””

a big public blind spot is Ford’s intentions with respect to fleet. the Lightning has a unique space in Ford’s massive fleet business.

for example, ford’s new electric vehicle unit, Model E, and fleet unit are now separate businesses. That means “on the books” Ford’s Model E unit “sells” Lightnings to the fleet unit, presumably at something like preferred wholesale pricing. (This btw, is one reason Model E’s books appear to show such low “margins” on the Lightning.)

fleet BU then turns around and sells those units to fleet customers at a fleet margin, but that’s not all. The fleet business, for large customers, involves all kinds of subscription fees and other asset/operations charges for things like charging stations, fleet management software, vehicle and charger maintenance programs, rolling unit refreshes, etc.

at present, it’s unknown how many of eg “80,000 units in 2023” are even allocated to retail. Or that Ford WANTS to sell lower trim to retail, rather than allocate them to the fleet BU - with recurring fees/margins

so, no, Ford cannot with these price raises, in this interest environment, sell 80K units at retail

Which is such a basic observation, it should make one think that if Ford in fact produces anything like 80,000 units, and keeps retail MSRPs where they are, then many of those units did not go to retail, and were predominately work truck trims fueling the fleet cash cow
 

intimidator

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hell no - and i say this as a Lightning owner

I think any of Ford’s current assertions about eg building 80,000 units in 2023 have to be read one of two ways:

(1) “if we decide to revise low-end trim production allocation and price” or

(2) “but many of those will not be retail units””

a big public blind spot is Ford’s intentions with respect to fleet. the Lightning has a unique space in Ford’s massive fleet business.

for example, ford’s new electric vehicle unit, Model E, and fleet unit are now separate businesses. That means “on the books” Ford’s Model E unit “sells” Lightnings to the fleet unit, presumably at something like preferred wholesale pricing. (This btw, is one reason Model E’s books appear to show such low “margins” on the Lightning.)

fleet BU then turns around and sells those units to fleet customers at a fleet margin, but that’s not all. The fleet business, for large customers, involves all kinds of subscription fees and other asset/operations charges for things like charging stations, fleet management software, vehicle and charger maintenance programs, rolling unit refreshes, etc.

at present, it’s unknown how many of eg “80,000 units in 2023” are even allocated to retail. Or that Ford WANTS to sell lower trim to retail, rather than allocate them to the fleet BU - with recurring fees/margins

so, no, Ford cannot with these price raises, in this interest environment, sell 80K units at retail

Which is such a basic observation, it should make one think that if Ford in fact produces anything like 80,000 units, and keeps retail MSRPs where they are, then many of those units did not go to retail, and were predominately work truck trims fueling the fleet cash cow
I am a Lightning owner too (CyberTruck future owner in waiting). I bought a Lariat, and think I paid way too much and wouldn't blame anyone for not consumating a sale once the final price is presented to them.

Their most recent marketing push seems to be for XLT, so I think they know the Platinum and Lariat's won't be big sellers going forward. Plus I don't see Ford building any of the PRO models. That said, the XLT might still be priced too high at the retail level (with the extended range battery) to garner 80,000+ in sales in 2023.

I hope they do well. When I trade/sell my 2023 Lariat Lightning for my 2025 CyberPunk pickup I hope my depreciation doesn't make me ill.
 

HaulingAss

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Ford apparently is experiencing that with the Ford Lightning.
Sure, they had a "long line" in 2021 and 2022 because they didn't deliver that many.
In fact, in 2022 Ford only delivered about 14,000 Lightnings. So of course you will have a number of buyers in the queue.

However, if Ford ramps up and builds 100,000 Lightnings in 2023, will the demand still dramatically exceed supply, given the current pricing on the Lightning? It remains to be seen. I have my doubts. $80,000 EV pickups, in my opinion, only have a limited number of buyers willing to close on a sale. Maybe it is 100,000 a year? Maybe it is 200,000 a year? More? But it will be very interesting once Cybertrucks, Rams, Silverado and Lightnings are all available to purchase.
The F-150 Lightning is overweight and costs too much to manufacture, so they had to raise the prices very high for what you get (and they are still losing money hand over fist on everyone they sell for as far as the eye can see). It's the best EV pickup on the market right now, but that's not saying much. When you offer this little, at such a high price, the sales figures are going to suffer.

But "value" has two components:

1) How much it costs
2) How much you get

I can easily see fully-loaded, quad motor Cybertrucks with incredible performance and features selling in the $80K range (or even a bit more), in impressive volumes, due to how much value the truck buyer sees. Not in the millions per year, but a lot more than Ford will be able to sell Lightings at a similar price point. Where the Cybertruck will kill the Lightning, is by offering HUGE value in the $60K price range.

At that price you will be able to get a Lightning that is very underwhelming in terms of driving dynamics, range and toughness/durability while the Cybertruck, at the same price point, will blow the Lightning away. So "value" is a two way street. A relatively expensive truck, that offers a lot of value, can sell at high volume, while a truck costing the same amount but without offering nearly as much value, might struggle to sell 50K to 100K per year.
 

Glenn

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In a Subscribers-Only Twitter Spaces held by Whole Mars Blog, one of his subscribers claimed that his physician (Day 1 reserver) said that he received an update from Tesla to expect delivery in December 23 or January 24.

I am highly skeptical of this claim, especially as we have many Hour 1 reservers on here, some local to Texas, who probably would have posted the news here by now.

Thoughts?
I will be patient so they have time to work the kinks out. I think I am close to 200,000 just like my S 197.000 something.
 

intimidator

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The F-150 Lightning is overweight and costs too much to manufacture, so they had to raise the prices very high for what you get (and they are still losing money hand over fist on everyone they sell for as far as the eye can see). It's the best EV pickup on the market right now, but that's not saying much. When you offer this little, at such a high price, the sales figures are going to suffer.

But "value" has two components:

1) How much it costs
2) How much you get

I can easily see fully-loaded, quad motor Cybertrucks with incredible performance and features selling in the $80K range (or even a bit more), in impressive volumes, due to how much value the truck buyer sees. Not in the millions per year, but a lot more than Ford will be able to sell Lightings at a similar price point. Where the Cybertruck will kill the Lightning, is by offering HUGE value in the $60K price range.

At that price you will be able to get a Lightning that is very underwhelming in terms of driving dynamics, range and toughness/durability while the Cybertruck, at the same price point, will blow the Lightning away. So "value" is a two way street. A relatively expensive truck, that offers a lot of value, can sell at high volume, while a truck costing the same amount but without offering nearly as much value, might struggle to sell 50K to 100K per year.
Hard to say until there is a Cybertruck to actually compare....and an actually price.
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