So something is wrong in Austin ... CyberTruck backlog

[agordon117]

Ok so how’d it go?

There aren't words.

I didnt sleep enough last night to make a post with coherent thoughts yet. Every day of waiting, all of the griping that I did, all of the lack of communication and information... Every piece of it was worth the wait, 100 times over.

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[Celiboy]

There aren't words.

I didnt sleep enough last night to make a post with coherent thoughts yet. Every day of waiting, all of the griping that I did, all of the lack of communication and information... Every piece of it was worth the wait, 100 times over.

Yes!!!!!! Join the club!!!!

Now sit back and just enjoy.

Happy for you bro.

 

[charliemagpie]

CT production restarts Monday morning and volume increases daily till Fri/Sat.

By Friday, final processing has fallen behind, and the increasing balance of CT's we see flooding the area is mostly cleared out on Sunday.

Not all vehicles go by train, the remnants we see on a Monday morning may not make up a full load to a particular destination.

 

[Celiboy]

There aren't words.

I didnt sleep enough last night to make a post with coherent thoughts yet. Every day of waiting, all of the griping that I did, all of the lack of communication and information... Every piece of it was worth the wait, 100 times over.

Next is to remove the (ordered) off your profile.

 

[HyperReality]

I used to be bothered that my 12/03/2019 reservation put me 350,000ish in line for a CT but now, I think it was a blessing in disguise. There is just no way I would pay the Foundation Series markup let alone the $20K they added to the first production pricing. Remember in 2016 when the Model X was introduced? It started at $120K and quickly went up to $140-$150K with the top trim. The base Model X is now $79K and top trims are a little over $100K.

The same thing will happen to the Cybertruck only the discounts will be greater due to the production volume and COGS of the Cybertruck will be much less than the Model X. They never produced more that 28K Model X's in a year and that was back in 2018. I just bought a used 2018 Model X from Tesla with a one year warranty (2 years on the battery and drive train) in great shape with low miles for under $40K. That car originally sold for slightly over $130,000 in 2018. The Model X's have improved a little every year and the same thing will happen with the Cybertruck. I'll probably get slightly used one in a few years and for a lot less than the current price.

In theory the volume of CTs they plan to make should indicate a lower price is possible in the future. However the large battery is noteable. Once we get into 2025 the first step down to increase demand is to actually start selling base trim for 80k. After this the next step is to start offering the 62k single motor. Only then would they consider lowering the prices. And since they say 2 million+ are interested. Maybe a good speculation is sometime in 2027 the prices start to adjust downward. But only after they are convinced they've exhausted trying to convert all these reservations.

But keep in mind competition is still selling their products at very comparible prices. So there will need to be some lower prices from them too. This is also why the Model X had to come down in price... Because other competitors do exist, namely the Rivian products affected this. Those fancy doors couldn't stay hype forever. And likewise the CT will not stay hype forever either.

In some ways I doubt the CT will ever drop % like the X, but you never know with the future.

 

[WormtownKris]

Are we all in agreement that Tesla is handing out CTs to the top tier celebs and influencers ahead of reservation holders? Because I dont understand how a 19 yo YTR has a CT already. They would have been 15 at reservation time, and it takes most tubers at least 5 years to become relevant..I understand that its a great marketing scheme and a low cost way to promote, but FFS what about the little people....rant over.

It was well publicized that they did a limited time offer to let folks jump the line if they turned in a high number of referral credits. (30K?) It wasn't a direct "here you go" to the YTrs and influencers, but who accumulates the most referrals by pimping out their referral codes all the time?
So, yeah, we are all in agreement since Tesla announced it themselves that that happened. And of course if Kim K or Tay Tay or some other mega star is going to put their CT on their social media, it is a no brainer to make that happen.

 

[charliemagpie]

Legacy selling at lower prices = More loss per vehicle

There is no joy in it, but as new ICE sales slow, will profits from selling spare parts to the diminishing second-hand ICE market be enough to sustain this subsidy?

 

[RonGonRetired]

Good point. Those rail cars were probably tweaked to hold Model Ys. I wonder if they had to make changes for the Cybertruck.

Even if they only have to truck them up to the railyard in Hutto and ship them out, they still have the 4-CT bottleneck at GT and then they have fewer cars on the train, and they have another 4-CT bottleneck at the terminal yard. No matter how you cut it, the CT is a logistics problem.

In the beginning I was hoping that Tesla would allow us to pick CTs up at GT and give us factory tours. We were planning on flying down, getting the CT, grabbing a cooler full of OUTRAGEOUS Texas BBQ, and driving home. Think of the cost savings for Tesla. Worth more than referral credits for the tour. But no.....

Yeah, that was my plan too! Fly down, road trip back, jump on the old RTE. 66, swing thru Winslow, AZ and get a pix next to the flat bed Ford, add to my SSR photo there.

 

[AlDente]

In theory the volume of CTs they plan to make should indicate a lower price is possible in the future. However the large battery is noteable. Once we get into 2025 the first step down to increase demand is to actually start selling base trim for 80k. After this the next step is to start offering the 62k single motor. Only then would they consider lowering the prices. And since they say 2 million+ are interested. Maybe a good speculation is sometime in 2027 the prices start to adjust downward. But only after they are convinced they've exhausted trying to convert all these reservations.

But keep in mind competition is still selling their products at very comparible prices. So there will need to be some lower prices from them too. This is also why the Model X had to come down in price... Because other competitors do exist, namely the Rivian products affected this. Those fancy doors couldn't stay hype forever. And likewise the CT will not stay hype forever either.

In some ways I doubt the CT will ever drop % like the X, but you never know with the future.

The Cybertruck is much more of a novelty product than the Model X. Many of the people who are buying now are simply those who want the attention that owning a unique and expensive thing gives them. The Model X maxed out production in 2018 (28K units) and because of high price and low production volume it will always have some of that unique and expensive appeal.

With the high production numbers forecast (250K/yr), the Cybertruck won't be a novelty for long. Many have said that it isn't "truck people" buying the Cybertruck and I agree. Also, a $100 reservation is no indication of a take rate and with a much higher price and other unanticipated issues (size, range, fit and finish) the Cybertruck could be this generations Edsel ...

That comment will raise the ire of many zealots here but the success of this vehicle is far from a foregone conclusion.

 

[Speedr]

The Cybertruck is much more of a novelty product than the Model X. Many of the people who are buying now are simply those who want the attention that owning a unique and expensive thing gives them. The Model X maxed out production in 2018 (28K units) and because of high price and low production volume it will always have some of that unique and expensive appeal.

With the high production numbers forecast (250K/yr), the Cybertruck won't be a novelty for long. Many have said that it isn't "truck people" buying the Cybertruck and I agree. Also, a $100 reservation is no indication of a take rate and with a much higher price and other unanticipated issues (size, range, fit and finish) the Cybertruck could be this generations Edsel ...

That comment will raise the ire of many zealots here but the success of this vehicle is far from a foregone conclusion.

You're right, it'll just be a novelty. I mean, who would want a dent proof, rush proof, tough on the outside truck that's super cheap to operate and doesn't need maintenance. No one! Most people want their fragile, conventional truck that take $100 to fill up and requires going to get an oil change (and other recommended/pushed maintenance) every six months!

 

[CyberJay]

The Cybertruck is much more of a novelty product than the Model X. Many of the people who are buying now are simply those who want the attention that owning a unique and expensive thing gives them. The Model X maxed out production in 2018 (28K units) and because of high price and low production volume it will always have some of that unique and expensive appeal.

With the high production numbers forecast (250K/yr), the Cybertruck won't be a novelty for long. Many have said that it isn't "truck people" buying the Cybertruck and I agree. Also, a $100 reservation is no indication of a take rate and with a much higher price and other unanticipated issues (size, range, fit and finish) the Cybertruck could be this generations Edsel ...

That comment will raise the ire of many zealots here but the success of this vehicle is far from a foregone conclusion.

admire your assessment - but not sure - time will tell.

- CT wont always cost 100k
- The interest rates WILL come down at some point
- CT will continue to improve, making it more and more competitive.
- I feel the greatest risk to CT longevity is (believe it or not) the opening up of Tesla supercharger network to other vehicles - Rivian, Ford, etc..

 

[AlDente]

- I feel the greatest risk to CT longevity is (believe it or not) the opening up of Tesla supercharger network to other vehicles - Rivian, Ford, etc..

Perhaps ... and more big battery, inefficient, slow charging BEV's will only exacerbate that issue. I like many Tesla owners do 90% of my charging at home and in my case, 80% of that 90% comes from a solar power/battery system. If I didn't have a solar system and Level 2 home charging I would not own any BEV's. I had hybrids before Tesla and I'd still be driving a hybrid without Level 2 home charging.

 

[pricedm]

How about Ford's problem?

(Reuters) - Ford said Thursday it will begin shipping to North American dealers 144,000 of its redesigned F-150 and Ranger pickup trucks that it built but held back until now in an effort to head off quality problems.

Ford said it also is restarting shipments of F-150 Lightning electric trucks which it had halted in February.
...
Ford Chief Financial Officer John Lawler told investors last month the company had 60,000 F-150s in stock it expected to ship in the current quarter.

 

[CyberJay]

Perhaps ... and more big battery, inefficient, slow charging BEV's will only exacerbate that issue. I like many Tesla owners do 90% of my charging at home and in my case, 80% of that 90% comes from a solar power/battery system. If I didn't have a solar system and Level 2 home charging I would not own any BEV's. I had hybrids before Tesla and I'd still be driving a hybrid without Level 2 home charging.

Completely agree - also have whole home solar panels and backup battery (Tesla Powerwall). Even though I'm not a classic "environmentalist" (I do care for the environment though) - also put in 2 heat pump systems in my home. I'm now fully off the grid if needed.

This past week the potential overcrowding at Tesla superchargers hit home when in New Hampshire the wait was extremely long (admittedly due to the eclipse).

 

[AlDente]

Completely agree - also have whole home solar panels and backup battery (Tesla Powerwall). Even though I'm not a classic "environmentalist" (I do care for the environment though) - also put in 2 heat pump systems in my home. I'm now fully off the grid if needed.

This past week the potential overcrowding at Tesla superchargers hit home when in New Hampshire the wait was extremely long (admittedly due to the eclipse).

In California, there are more Tesla's and Superchargers than anywhere else in the world. There are certain locations that get jacked up during rush hour or a holiday weekend but there are so many options it's easy to avoid. With so many Uber drivers using M3's & Y's the urban SC's are often full and most of these individuals don't have home charging. They will also stay for a much higher state of charge so they can make ends meet and that adds to the congestion. All you have to do is look at the used Tesla market and you'll already notice many 2-3 Y/O Tesla's with 80K+ miles on the ODO selling cheap. That many high mileage vehicles drives prices down and makes the used market for Tesla soft and getting softer.

Back to the topic of this Forum, there do seem to be some rental Cybertruck's in the wild hosted by the quick buck boys. This phenomena while short term profitable, is a bubble that will burst once production hits full stride. Good luck selling a rental Foundation Series Cybertruck with high miles on the used market in 2026. That's a pretty short runway ...

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