Tesla's Cybertruck VIN Activation Tracker (NOT Customer VIN Allocations)

[bwilliam79]

Wonderul work!

Could you delineate where your daily VIN Activation figures began to be generated internally (by your own computer) vs simply inputting figures from this thread?

I actually worked with @newwave1331 to ingest everything he has gathered up to this point, so they should be identical up to yesterday. Everything from that point forward is based on the scans I am running.

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[CyberFreak]

I actually worked with @newwave1331 to ingest everything he has gathered up to this point, so they should be identical up to yesterday. Everything from that point forward is based on the scans I am running.

thanks for the clarification.
At this rate, Beast VIN activations for non-employee/VIPs should begin in the next few weeks, meaning the “Early 2024” description for the 12/8 Beast orders may prove to be accurate!

great news!

 

[cvalue13]

So, looks like originally Musk was going to build 420 Foundation Beasts.

Because the AWDs are now built so much deeper into the build plan than are the Cyberbeasts, it results in the current VIN list having large gaps where Cyberbeasts were/are intended to be built.

And because the Build plan VIN activations are now past the first 1000 customer VINS (excluding the 200 held out MCs and 20 showroom units), we can now see the Beasts and ‘Beast gaps’ in the original build plan for 1,000 Cyberbeasts.


• VINs 1-50 were reserved for Cyberbeasts (all now activated), which was the first “Beast ‘gap’ we’ve long been able to see.

• the remaining Beast gaps (earlier than VIN 1220), are :

• 71-420
• 1179-1199

Which results in 420 total Foundation Beasts under the original Foundation build plan for 1,000 units


To date only a fraction of those original 420 VINs have been activated - as of today, about 60 activated, and so somewhere south of 60 Beasts have been built as of this date.

Of those 60, ~15 were delivered at the Delivery Event on Nov 30, leaving fewer than 45 Beasts having been built to to date post delivery event.


Regarding AWDs, then, they’ve already gone well past the 580 originally slated in the 1000 FS build plan.

Whereas, the Beast is only lets call it 15% through the original build plan for 420 Foundation Beasts.

Bonus trivia: it’s unusual for there to be a VIN 000000, so I *strongly* assume that’s Musk’s Beast. And, I *strongly* assume that VIN 420 will also be Musk’s second Beast.

 

[Coltpete]

So, looks like originally Musk was going to build 420 Foundation Beasts.

Because the AWDs are now built so much deeper into the build plan than are the Cyberbeasts, it results in the current VIN list having large gaps where Cyberbeasts were/are intended to be built.

And because the Build plan VIN activations are now past the first 1000 customer VINS (excluding the 200 held out MCs and 20 showroom units), we can now see the Beasts and ‘Beast gaps’ in the original build plan for 1,000 Cyberbeasts.


• VINs 1-50 were reserved for Cyberbeasts (all now activated), which was the first “Beast ‘gap’ we’ve long been able to see.

• the remaining Beast gaps (earlier than VIN 1220), are :

• 71-420
• 1179-1199

Which results in 420 total Foundation Beasts under the original Foundation build plan for 1,000 units


To date only a fraction of those original 420 VINs have been activated - as of today, about 60 activated, and so somewhere south of 60 Beasts have been built as of this date.

Of those 60, ~15 were delivered at the Delivery Event on Nov 30, leaving fewer than 45 Beasts having been built to to date post delivery event.


Regarding AWDs, then, they’ve already gone well past the 580 originally slated in the 1000 FS build plan.

Whereas, the Beast is only lets call it 15% through the original build plan for 420 Foundation Beasts.

Bonus trivia: it’s unusual for there to be a VIN 000000, so I *strongly* assume that’s Musk’s Beast. And, I *strongly* assume that VIN 420 will also be Musk’s second Beast.

Awesome info. I think you're spot on. I do wonder how deep they'll go with awd FS builds.

 

[Rocketman]

So, looks like originally Musk was going to build 420 Foundation Beasts.

Because the AWDs are now built so much deeper into the build plan than are the Cyberbeasts, it results in the current VIN list having large gaps where Cyberbeasts were/are intended to be built.

And because the Build plan VIN activations are now past the first 1000 customer VINS (excluding the 200 held out MCs and 20 showroom units), we can now see the Beasts and ‘Beast gaps’ in the original build plan for 1,000 Cyberbeasts.


• VINs 1-50 were reserved for Cyberbeasts (all now activated), which was the first “Beast ‘gap’ we’ve long been able to see.

• the remaining Beast gaps (earlier than VIN 1220), are :

• 71-420
• 1179-1199

Which results in 420 total Foundation Beasts under the original Foundation build plan for 1,000 units


To date only a fraction of those original 420 VINs have been activated - as of today, about 60 activated, and so somewhere south of 60 Beasts have been built as of this date.

Of those 60, ~15 were delivered at the Delivery Event on Nov 30, leaving fewer than 45 Beasts having been built to to date post delivery event.


Regarding AWDs, then, they’ve already gone well past the 580 originally slated in the 1000 FS build plan.

Whereas, the Beast is only lets call it 15% through the original build plan for 420 Foundation Beasts.

Bonus trivia: it’s unusual for there to be a VIN 000000, so I *strongly* assume that’s Musk’s Beast. And, I *strongly* assume that VIN 420 will also be Musk’s second Beast.

I also see VIN 888 and 907-910 unassigned in the raw data. 888 is within the AWD MC’s group but I know 888 is a lucky number in Chinese culture so maybe it could be kept for some VIP. The VINs 907-910 come right after the AWD MC’s, but 911 is listed as a Beast but not MC (maybe the one they used to race the Porsche 911 while towing the 911, and now in the hands of a VIP?). The rest of the VINs after 911 are listed as AWDs, non MC. These 6 VINs aren’t included in your 420 count (but only 1 is confirmed as a Beast), but maybe Tesla has something special planned for those. Idk

 

[CyberGus]

I do wonder how deep they'll go with awd FS builds.

BAWs deep

 

[cvalue13]

I also see VIN 888 and 907-910 unassigned in the raw data. 888 is within the AWD MC’s group but I know 888 is a lucky number in Chinese culture so maybe it could be kept for some VIP. The VINs 907-910 come right after the AWD MC’s, but 911 is listed as a Beast but not MC (maybe the one they used to race the Porsche 911 while towing the 911, and now in the hands of a VIP?). The rest of the VINs after 911 are listed as AWDs, non MC. These 6 VINs aren’t included in your 420 count (but only 1 is confirmed as a Beast), but maybe Tesla has something special planned for those. Idk

for simplicity, I did not get into a couple of the one-off aberrations

but long story short, there appear to be three buckets of aberrations:

(1) some VIP that wanted a specific VIN, in a specific configuration- eg VIN 911 but in a Beast configuration - and so that VIN was run through in that config despite the build plan

(2) some VIP allocated a Beast order/VIN, but once they learned of the wait times converted to a AWD for expedience - and that VIN was then run through as an AWD despite the build plan

(3) in the initial build plan, they reserved for MC builds VINS 800-1000 (200 total); ultimately, they reached their satisfaction of line validation after only 110 MC builds, leaving a ‘free’ 90 VINs directly in the build plan. at the point Tesla decided to go beyond the initially planned 1,000 FS builds, it meant there was no reason to not go ahead and build those VINs as well. However, there is a tendency in VIN build plans to leave some small gaps in VINs to separate functional blocks like as between MC and retail units. We’ve seen those ‘delimitation gaps’ elsewhere before.

There may of course be other exceptions to the rule, but they’re pretty clearly exceptions to a rule.

 

[cvalue13]

Reposting down here an update to the OP, in order to *bump* this addition to the OP:


UPDATE Jan 27th 2024:

Through various efforts between myself, @newwave1331, @JBee, @scottf200, and most recently @bwilliam79, the VIN activation data tracking & presentation effort has evolved to this:

http://ctvins.tehkernel.com

A big hat tip to @bwilliam79 for building upon what @newwave1331 had accomplished from a programming perspective, and in taking/automating a laboring oar from @newwave1331, to arrive at the VIN tracking site.

An associated set of notes from @bwilliam79 regarding the site:

- I am not a programmer by trade, this was just a hobby project. Bugs may be present. ​

- The web server I'm using to host this is VERY limited in resources. If a bunch of people start hitting it all at once, it may very well be slow to respond or not respond at all. I'll try to keep an eye on this.​

- Currently, this process is checking for VIN activations on a four hour interval.​

- Feedback is welcome.​

While the data will be collected and presented at that site, we will here on this forum occasionally collect and bring-down that information here when certain key observations or questions present. Others are encouraged to do the same

Afterall, we only arrived at the new VIN tracking site in virtue of the community here providing observations, feedback, and assistance. For the same reasons, even though the data is presented at that site, it’s important to keep up the discussion (and scrutiny) here in forum.

 

[CyberGus]

I want VIN 1337

 

[j4ypal]

Reposting down here an update to the OP, in order to *bump* this addition to the OP:


UPDATE Jan 27th 2024:

Through various efforts between myself, @newwave1331, @JBee, @scottf200, and most recently @bwilliam79, the VIN activation data tracking & presentation effort has evolved to this:

http://ctvins.tehkernel.com

A big hat tip to @bwilliam79 for building upon what @newwave1331 had accomplished from a programming perspective, and in taking/automating a laboring oar from @newwave1331, to arrive at the VIN tracking site.

An associated set of notes from @bwilliam79 regarding the site:

- I am not a programmer by trade, this was just a hobby project. Bugs may be present. ​

- The web server I'm using to host this is VERY limited in resources. If a bunch of people start hitting it all at once, it may very well be slow to respond or not respond at all. I'll try to keep an eye on this.​

- Currently, this process is checking for VIN activations on a four hour interval.​

- Feedback is welcome.​

While the data will be collected and presented at that site, we will here on this forum occasionally collect and bring-down that information here when certain key observations or questions present. Others are encouraged to do the same

Afterall, we only arrived at the new VIN tracking site in virtue of the community here providing observations, feedback, and assistance. For the same reasons, even though the data is presented at that site, it’s important to keep up the discussion (and scrutiny) here in forum.

Great work! Thanks for the time you and others invested to do this.

 

[cvalue13]

I want VIN 1337

had to google it

I’m not 1337

 

[newwave1331]

I want VIN 1337

4SS1-1013

 

[LonelyCTfan]

people getting invites so far are predominately people who placed pre-orders the day of the reveal, etc

these are Tesla devotees, BEV truck super-fans, etc.

let’s not get it twisted: the group of folks with minute one / day one reservations are not the general population

I am the general population and I expect my VIN within 11 days, if all accounts are accurate. I've never owned a Tesla, I just liked the look. So there are some regular Joes out here.

 

[newwave1331]

I figured I give a confirmation of alignment with the website tool. Good news, its working.

Showing how that same data was presented before when I showed it by day. It was hitting the limit on readable font size anyway.

We can see this week had a big jump in vin activations driven by activations per day and having a full 5 days of activations.

 

[cvalue13]

I am the general population and I expect my VIN within 11 days, if all accounts are accurate. I've never owned a Tesla, I just liked the look. So there are some regular Joes out here.

not sure I follow - seems like you’re disagreeing with something I said, but ai can’t tell what

Statistically, either you placed a very early pre-order in the day or so after 2019 reveal, you’re friends & family, or you’re an anomaly.

Meanwhile, you’re on this forum.

All consistent with the extent of the comment you’re responding to, no?

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