The Cyber Truck may pay for itself.

[CyberGus]

Why the long face?

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[happy intruder]

I just hope it'll be possible. I want to be able to use all that energy that's just sitting there.

-Crissa

Is this a new Tesla battery or the same as the current wall pack......my other question is , I thought you could not buy the wall battery without buying the solar panel....

 

[JBee]

if that’s the case we are in good shape because it can’t happen until late 2022.

Sounds about right. Now we know why CT is coming out then and why EM is in a hurry with Starship.

 

[Ogre]

That sounds about right.

The current stock price makes no sense to me. If Tesla makes 3,000,000 vehicles per year 2023 and clears $12,000 each that is only $36 B. Market Cap today is $738 B.

I'm not suggesting Tesla is "properly valued", but the classic way of valuing stocks is to take the present value of all future cash flows (or revenues or income, depends on who's exact model).

So more correctly it would be 2023's revenue discounted slightly—$36B in your example—adding the discounted value of 2024's revenue, 2025, 2026, etc...

Your estimate of $12k/ car is possibly low. If Tesla manages to increase the uptake in FSD from the current ~15% to 30% for example, that's just cash in pocket.

Tesla is talking about producing 10m+ cars a year before the end of the decade. They also have their hands in solar, apparently robots, as mentioned FSD is it's own revenue stream...

As I said above, not trying to sell you on Tesla being correctly valued, but just sort of a little flavor on how people can see the value you don't. All the above said... realistically it's just a giant crap shoot. For millions of younger people, Tesla is the stock to own.

Also, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft all went through long phases of their growth curve where their stock value seemingly made no sense. Until one day people woke up and realized: Microsoft had a monopoly in software and was milking it like mad; Apple was the most profitable company in the world; Amazon owned 80% of online retail in the US, and a huge chunk of *all* retail.

Ok... it was 3 separate days decades apart.

 

[JBee]

Amazon stock price never made any sense to me based on PE or ROI, there is an obvious fourth dimension ?

Um there is a forth dimension - time.

Its obviously stock AI factoring in when Skynet becomes self aware and where humans become a commodity...wait that already happened.

 

[LDRHAWKE]

Yeah, me too. I signed up when they were released. But every time they have had installers in our area, Tesla has limited them to only-with-solar.

I understand why: They have a limited supply and that increases their customer satisfaction and environmental impact.

Of course... I still need a new battery backup.


Me too.


The 80s and 90s were pretty boring.


They didn't need to go more than 50 miles to escape without charging. If you want to travel outside the damage zone, you do it before the storm comes, and power will be plentiful (and free to evacuees). If the storm is passing/has passed through, you don't want to travel because of damage and flooding. You are safer sitting on the nearest hill.


True. But that's more than not at all. Always store a spare!

-Crissa

If it is true that the reason for Tesla cars, not presently being wired to allow them to be plugged in the house for back up power is because the existing Tesla batteries have significantly reduced life when deep cycled…..maybe you are better off waiting to get a Powerwall when they may also get the new 4680 high density million mile battery along with the Cybertruck. It sounds like the 4680 batteries are much better suited for deep cycling in their VPP grid…..just a thought.

 

[Tinker71]

Amazon stock price never made any sense to me based on PE or ROI, there is an obvious fourth dimension ?

Once Amazon drives the other retailers out of business they will put the screws to us and make all the profit in a couple years Yes on the 4th dimension.

 

[LDRHAWKE]

Once Amazon drives the other retailers out of business they will put the screws to us and make all the profit in a couple years Yes on the 4th dimension.

Only if you are a customer.

 

[MEDICALJMP]

The 80s and 90s were pretty boring.


-Crissa

Hm. 1980s. Yes, so boring. Chernobyl. First female US Supreme Court justice. Iranian hostages released. Iran Contra. The Falklands island war. First female US astronaut. Glasnost. Secret war in Central America. Cocaine wars. CIA smuggling cocaine into America. The first Mac computer and other boring events. The 1990s were just as boring with the first Gulf War and many other boring events I fell asleep typing this. ?

 

[Quicksilver]

Why the long face?

"I don't know......I've always had it."

 

[Crissa]

Is this a new Tesla battery or the same as the current wall pack......my other question is , I thought you could not buy the wall battery without buying the solar panel....

The current wall packs seem to use the same batteries as the cars. They're hoping to shift to all LFP over the next few years.

Yes, that's why I have been able to get one. In the short windows when you could get them without, either there were no installers in our area, or we didn't fit the profile.

Hm. 1980s. Yes, so boring. Chernobyl. First female US Supreme Court justice. Iranian hostages released. Iran Contra. The Falklands island war. First female US astronaut. Glasnost. Secret war in Central America. Cocaine wars. CIA smuggling cockiness into America. The first Mac computer and other boring events. The 1990s were just as boring with the first Gulf War and many other boring events I fell asleep typing this. ?

You can make a list like that for any decade, tho.

What we didn't have in the 80s and 90s were megadroughts, megafires, megawars, and megastorms. So yeah, pretty boring all told.

-Crissa

 

[Rockvillerich]

Everyone knows that this picture of a Tesla Power Wall that comes with a Tesla solar roof.

But, did you know Tesla is now a Virtual Power company in California, and that it buys and sells electricity to power companies at peak demand when power can sell for 10 times normal? The new kicker is that Tesla now has computer system that will seamlessly connect and uses the power from these Tesla power walls under contract with owners, paying them for the energy stored and used during peak demand.

So What! What has that to do with a CyberTruck? Well I will tell you.

Without even having a solar roof, a Cybertruck will be able to be wired into your home charging system or a charging station and be able to be connected to the Tesla Virtual Power Grid. I don’t know the financial agreement that Tesla will make to get access to your Cybertruck battery……..But I do know a Tri-motor 500 mile battery is 10 times larger that a single 13.5 kWh power wall. In some states Power Wall owners are making a couple of grand a year selling directly back to power companies during peak demand.

When you get you new Cybertruck it looks like you may also have a new source of income and be a member of what may end up being one of the largest power companies in the World.

Happy Days are here again.?

What Cybertruck?

 

[LDRHAWKE]

4680 Battery Update: This is Obviously still the biggest bottleneck in Cybertruck production.

“The 4680 battery cell was unveiled at Tesla’s Battery Day in September 2020.

The automaker presented several new pieces of technology that combined together result in a more energy-dense cell that could reduce costs by 50%.

One of the most significant improvements that 4680 cells bring to the table is the ability to build a structural battery pack that makes the pack part of the vehicle structure – reducing parts, weight, and cost.

Tesla has been running a pilot factory for the new battery cell in Fremont where CEO Elon Musk has been guiding reaching a production capacity of 10 GWh by the end of 2021.

Today, with the release of its Q2 2021 financial results, Tesla released a rare update about its progress toward that goal:

We have successfully validated performance and lifetime of our 4680 cells produced at our Kato facility in California. We are nearing the end of manufacturing validation at Kato: field quality and yield are at viable levels and our focus is now on improving the 10% of manufacturing processes that currently bottleneck production output. While substantial progress has been made, we still have work ahead of us before we can achieve volume production. Internal crash testing of our structural pack architecture with a single-piece front casting has been successful.

In short, Tesla managed to get some progress done, but they still have more work to do before achieving any volume production.

The 4680 battery cell is expected to power several of Tesla’s upcoming new vehicle programs, including Tesla Semi and Model Y, produced at Gigafactory Texas and Berlin.

Once Tesla has figured production at the Kato facility, it is expected to deploy high volume 4680 battery cell capacity at those new factories under construction.

Tesla has previously disclosed 4680 battery production goals of 100 GWh by 2023 and 3,000 GWh by 2030.”

 

[LDRHAWKE]

What Cybertruck?

The ones you list as your vehicles……?. It is a good thing you have a horse.

 

[intimidator]

Everyone knows that this picture of a Tesla Power Wall that comes with a Tesla solar roof.

But, did you know Tesla is now a Virtual Power company in California, and that it buys and sells electricity to power companies at peak demand when power can sell for 10 times normal? The new kicker is that Tesla now has computer system that will seamlessly connect and uses the power from these Tesla power walls under contract with owners, paying them for the energy stored and used during peak demand.

So What! What has that to do with a CyberTruck? Well I will tell you.

Without even having a solar roof, a Cybertruck will be able to be wired into your home charging system or a charging station and be able to be connected to the Tesla Virtual Power Grid. I don’t know the financial agreement that Tesla will make to get access to your Cybertruck battery……..But I do know a Tri-motor 500 mile battery is 10 times larger that a single 13.5 kWh power wall. In some states Power Wall owners are making a couple of grand a year selling directly back to power companies during peak demand.

When you get you new Cybertruck it looks like you may also have a new source of income and be a member of what may end up being one of the largest power companies in the World.

Happy Days are here again.?

IMO The Tesla Virtual Power Grid will be moving the needle a lot sooner than the hopes of RoboTaxis. AutoBidder could be leveraged so much more.

The Virtual Power Grid is here now. It just needs to be adopted by more and more homeowners.

In a fantasy world, our politicians would get more behind VPGs, maybe even providing incentives, etc.

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