TSLA vs Cybertruck expectations

[HaulingAss]

PS Today, 90% of all new cars sold in the United States will be gas ICE vehicles. 90%. Tomorrow, 90% of vehicles will be ICE. There are a lot of people to still be convinced to switch to an EV.

That's the dumbest take I've heard on Cybertruck Owner's Club Forums in a long time. What smart person compares sales from one day to the next?

US EV sales have been hit hard by GM and Ford pulling back on production in a weak attempt to keep EV prices higher, so they are not losing so many billions of dollars selling EV's. Tesla is still strongly profitable and growing sales unit volumes and is on track to sell a record 1.8 million vehicles this year, up strongly from last year.

EV sales haven't stalled, legacy plans to produce EV's have. Because they are inefficient producers. The market has a surplus of batteries, but they cannot utilize them profitably because they are so inefficient at giving the consumer what they want, at a price they are willing to pay.

Even the dumbest stock analyst knows that Tesla's share price is NOT predicated on how many EVs legacy auto makes (or sells). It's a false narrative that consumers have soured on EVs, the problem is there aren't very many compelling products available at compelling prices. That's not Tesla's fault, in fact, they have the best-selling car in the world for Q1 2023, Q2 2023 and Q3 2023. AND it's an EV!

How could consumers have soured on EVs when the best-selling car in the world for the last 3 quarters is, wait for it, the Tesla Model Y, a pure electric car? Obviously, the problem is availability of other EV's at compelling prices. New car buyers want value for their hard-earned money and only Tesla is offering it. In fact, only Tesla can offer it because legacy is still selling their EVs at high prices and still losing money on everyone they sell.

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[intimidator]

That's the dumbest take I've heard on Cybertruck Owner's Club Forums in a long time. What smart person compares sales from one day to the next?

US EV sales have been hit hard by GM and Ford pulling back on production in a weak attempt to keep EV prices higher, so they are not losing so many billions of dollars selling EV's. Tesla is still strongly profitable and growing sales unit volumes and is on track to sell a record 1.8 million vehicles this year, up strongly from last year.

EV sales haven't stalled, legacy plans to produce EV's have. Because they are inefficient producers. The market has a surplus of batteries, but they cannot utilize them profitably because they are so inefficient at giving the consumer what they want, at a price they are willing to pay.

Even the dumbest stock analyst knows that Tesla's share price is NOT predicated on how many EVs legacy auto makes (or sells). It's a false narrative that consumers have soured on EVs, the problem is there aren't very many compelling products available at compelling prices. That's not Tesla's fault, in fact, they have the best-selling car in the world for Q1 2023, Q2 2023 and Q3 2023. AND it's an EV!

How could consumers have soured on EVs when the best-selling car in the world for the last 3 quarters is, wait for it, the Tesla Model Y, a pure electric car? Obviously, the problem is availability of other EV's at compelling prices. New car buyers want value for their hard-earned money and only Tesla is offering it. In fact, only Tesla can offer it because legacy is still selling their EVs at high prices and still losing money on everyone they sell.

What are you talking about.

90% of automobiles sold in the United States, today, Halloween 2023 will be ICE.
That is just a fact.

I own EVs, and I wouldn't buy an ICE vehicle, but obviously 90% of US buyers still do. There is a lot of minds to change to get to the point only 85% of new car sales are ICE. And then get to 80% of new sales.

A lot can trip up that transition.

 

[Sirfun]

That's the dumbest take I've heard on Cybertruck Owner's Club Forums in a long time. What smart person compares sales from one day to the next?

US EV sales have been hit hard by GM and Ford pulling back on production in a weak attempt to keep EV prices higher, so they are not losing so many billions of dollars selling EV's. Tesla is still strongly profitable and growing sales unit volumes and is on track to sell a record 1.8 million vehicles this year, up strongly from last year.

EV sales haven't stalled, legacy plans to produce EV's have. Because they are inefficient producers. The market has a surplus of batteries, but they cannot utilize them profitably because they are so inefficient at giving the consumer what they want, at a price they are willing to pay.

Even the dumbest stock analyst knows that Tesla's share price is NOT predicated on how many EVs legacy auto makes (or sells). It's a false narrative that consumers have soured on EVs, the problem is there aren't very many compelling products available at compelling prices. That's not Tesla's fault, in fact, they have the best-selling car in the world for Q1 2023, Q2 2023 and Q3 2023. AND it's an EV!

How could consumers have soured on EVs when the best-selling car in the world for the last 3 quarters is, wait for it, the Tesla Model Y, a pure electric car? Obviously, the problem is availability of other EV's at compelling prices. New car buyers want value for their hard-earned money and only Tesla is offering it. In fact, only Tesla can offer it because legacy is still selling their EVs at high prices and still losing money on everyone they sell.

Also, these anti-EV folks love to twist around words to make people think the way they want them to think.

GROWTH is slowing, doesn't mean that fewer EVs are being sold. It could mean something as simple as they sold 2000 units in 2021, and sold 5000 in 2022. In 2023, they only anticipate selling 6000. Therefore, the growth in sales is declining. OMG

 

[davelloydbrown]

What are you talking about.

90% of automobiles sold in the United States, today, Halloween 2023 will be ICE.
That is just a fact.

I own EVs, and I wouldn't buy an ICE vehicle, but obviously 90% of US buyers still do. There is a lot of minds to change to get to the point only 85% of new car sales are ICE. And then get to 80% of new sales.

A lot can trip up that transition.

it's just like climate change, there are a LOT of people who believe it is a hoax and continue to read only their biased news feeds that reinforce that message. Same thing as with electric cars when you have people like Trump criticising them and repeating all the false rumors and claiming windmills cause cancer.

Some like Gary Black believe that Tesla needs to advertise to get the message out, however sometimes you are just left with, "there ain't no fix for dumb" (half of the people have an IQ of less than 100).

 

[HaulingAss]

What are you talking about.

90% of automobiles sold in the United States, today, Halloween 2023 will be ICE.
That is just a fact.

I own EVs, and I wouldn't buy an ICE vehicle, but obviously 90% of US buyers still do. There is a lot of minds to change to get to the point only 85% of new car sales are ICE. And then get to 80% of new sales.

A lot can trip up that transition.

You obviously missed my point. Read it again. You are spreading FUD without any ammunition. Evreyone could decide tomorrow to buy an EV at the prices available today, and it wouldn't change a thing. It would just make EV's more expensive and harder to get. Manufacturers are not going to ramp production on designs they cannot sell for a profit.

Good EV's at good prices are still selling well, unfortunately, these are almost 100% Teslas. No other manufacturer can sell them at a good enough value to rack up volumes similar to Tesla.

Your view that EV sales have stalled will look pretty short-sighted when Tesla Q4 numbers come out. Because they will have sold more EVs in Q4 than Q3. That's called sales growth, not a stalling.

 

[PilotPete]

WHY it is happening.
So my question is; Is it happening because as we get closer to the debut of the most anticipated vehicle to hit the market...maybe ever, do the majority of investors now assume the CT is going to fail to deliver on the expectations created by Tesla? I do think that answer answer is yes. The stock has turned down because people still view TSLA as an auto stock. And because they view it as an auto stock and because they don't think the CT will meet the expectations previously laid out by Tesla, they are selling in mass.

If you could answer that question, you would be filthy stupid rich. There are a thousand reasons why a stock is bought or sold. Some of the large transactions are done by programs that look at any number of things, some related to the stock, to the business, to the market, to the sector, to the news, to whether or not the Fed wore solid or patterned socks to the latest meeting, to the weather. There are as many reasons for a purchase or a sale of a stock as there are transactions. You and I may look at TSLA and find it a perfect time for a purchase, and some analyst may direct a retirement fund to sell a large block of stock because of something that Winnie the Pooh did in China.

The short answer is, if you see something positive that you believe everyone else is missing, either you are right, or they are. Just like poker, put your money in when you think you have the best chance to win. Your final account balance will tell you if you're right or wrong.

 

[SpaceYooper]

If you could answer that question, you would be filthy stupid rich. There are a thousand reasons why a stock is bought or sold. Some of the large transactions are done by programs that look at any number of things, some related to the stock, to the business, to the market, to the sector, to the news, to whether or not the Fed wore solid or patterned socks to the latest meeting, to the weather. There are as many reasons for a purchase or a sale of a stock as there are transactions. You and I may look at TSLA and find it a perfect time for a purchase, and some analyst may direct a retirement fund to sell a large block of stock because of something that Winnie the Pooh did in China.

The short answer is, if you see something positive that you believe everyone else is missing, either you are right, or they are. Just like poker, put your money in when you think you have the best chance to win. Your final account balance will tell you if you're right or wrong.

Okay...do you think the stock performance over the last month has anything to do with the pending CT debut being somewhat disappointing?

Maybe that is the question I should have asked to begin with.

 

[PilotPete]

Okay...do you think the stock performance over the last month has anything to do with the pending CT debut being somewhat disappointing?

Maybe that is the question I should have asked to begin with.

Me? Personally? No. Not at all. I think there has been a reaction to the statements that the CT won't provide appreciable profits for 18 months, and that production is going to be difficult. Add that to about a thousand other things that were said or not said, and there you have the answer to today's stock pricing.

As for me, personally, in my own portfolio, for my own use and risk, I'm buying TSLA at the moment.

 

[Frank Mendez]

Bought 11 shares more today

 

[Rutrow]

It doesn't seem like any Tesla events change the stock much IIRC.
I recall watching the impressive last investor day and there was hardly any change.

I've been a shareholder since back in the days when every successful/unsuccessful Falcon 9 launch/landing would have an effect on $TSLA.

$TSLA moves A LOT on emotion. The CyberTruck delivery event may have a significant emotional impact...

... or not

 

[Sirfun]

Emotions run high with this one.

The day after the CT reveal in 2019, TSLA went down over 6%. It took 3 weeks to recover back to where it had been, only to start the climb to the moon!

Like anything in life, prices are based on what people will pay. Just because a stock sells at a certain price doesn't mean that is its true value.

 

[Arctic_White]

the change will come when the so- called experts see the profits generated by Tesla energy and finally understand Tesla isn't a car company.

I think the biggest asset value increase in history would happen when Tesla solves FSD and starts licensing it out to others. That is the key here.

Tesla Energy, Tesla EV, and Tesla Solar are by and large already priced in. What isn't priced in is FSD and the potential for Robotaxi.

Don't even get me started on Optimus. Adding even a small potential of Robots breaks my financial model and the numbers become ridiculous (like 30T market cap, or 10x what Apple is right now).

 

[Arctic_White]

That's probably likely. I think with news that there is a li-ion battery surplus in the markets, and with Tesla's recent ramping of automated Megapack mass production seeming like it's going well, and with energy markets being less sensitive to economic conditions than new car buyers, I think the release of Q4 results might be the beginning of a new TSLA bull market (even if the results from the automotive side of the business are still depressed). We won't know for sure exactly when it will happen, but energy storage is ripe for rapid growth. The growth in Q3 was impressive and we know the revenues are delayed from actual sales, so I'm guessing Q4 will probably see further growth (and it just might be earth-shaking).

The real wildcard is FSD development. I think there is a sense that things are getting close so, depending upon the capabilities of FSD Ver. 12, and when it goes into wide release, that's another prime opportunity for a breakout in TSLA.

I don't see TSLA languishing for an extended period (meaning past mid-2024), so the best strategy for potential investors is to accumulate as much as desired when the price is depressed. Stocks of good companies that have experienced big declines have a way of breaking out rather suddenly and without prior warning. Getting in before the breakout can really multiply your returns.

Nobody can time the market. Therefore, I won't be surprised if Tesla stays b/w $200 and $300 for the next 3 to 5 years. Tesla historically has stayed "stable" for 5 to 6 years and then increase rapidly for 1 to 2 years. For ex: Tesla was flat for 3 years b/w 2010 and 2013, then it 10x in 1 year. It again stayed flat for 5 years from 2014 to 2019 then it 7'xed in a year. From 2020 to now, it may stay flat again only to 7x - 10x in one year, likely when FSD is solved.

I don't think the stock will move much past $300 unless FSD is solved. This could be next year, or 2025, or 2026, or even 2030. We do not know when it will be solved. So the goal is to buy whenever you have the cash and hold on to the ride.

 

[HaulingAss]

Nobody can time the market. Therefore, I won't be surprised if Tesla stays b/w $200 and $300 for the next 3 to 5 years. Tesla historically has stayed "stable" for 5 to 6 years and then increase rapidly for 1 to 2 years. For ex: Tesla was flat for 3 years b/w 2010 and 2013, then it 10x in 1 year. It again stayed flat for 5 years from 2014 to 2019 then it 7'xed in a year. From 2020 to now, it may stay flat again only to 7x - 10x in one year, likely when FSD is solved.

I don't think the stock will move much past $300 unless FSD is solved. This could be next year, or 2025, or 2026, or even 2030. We do not know when it will be solved. So the goal is to buy whenever you have the cash and hold on to the ride.

I agree with most of what you wrote except, I have to say, there is almost zero chance of Tesla staying between $200 and $300 for 3-5 years from now. Past behavior of share price is not a good predictor of future share price. In fact, it has very little predictive value. There is a very good reason Tesla stayed relatively flat from 2013 to 2019 and that is because Tesla was not profitable. In 2019 it became apparent that Tesla was on the verge of profitability and the shares started rising. In 2020 Tesla reached annual profitability for the first time ever, and the rest is history.

Now that Tesla is profitable, the shares can only stay flat if earnings don't grow fast enough. And I think that's very unlikely because the soft auto market, causing lower margins, can only stay soft for so long. All those 12-year-old ICE cars keep wearing out. Cars crash every day. Soft sales create a backlog for future sales. That means margins will start to grow, probably by late next year and, combined with steadily increasing volumes, the price will rise. And this is before we even consider rising sales of Megapacks, which currently have higher margins than their autos!

FSD is simply the option that will pay out big when it's solved. Until then, we have plenty of growth in autos, Megapacks and likely margins on both of them as we enter the steep part of the S-curves of both EV adoption and also energy storage. In other words, the shit's about to hit the fan and it ain't gonna take 5 frickin' years for investors to wake up to that!

 

[Arctic_White]

I agree with most of what you wrote except, I have to say, there is almost zero chance of Tesla staying between $200 and $300 for 3-5 years from now. Past behavior of share price is not a good predictor of future share price. In fact, it has very little predictive value. There is a very good reason Tesla stayed relatively flat from 2013 to 2019 and that is because Tesla was not profitable. In 2019 it became apparent that Tesla was on the verge of profitability and the shares started rising. In 2020 Tesla reached annual profitability for the first time ever, and the rest is history.

Now that Tesla is profitable, the shares can only stay flat if earnings don't grow fast enough. And I think that's very unlikely because the soft auto market, causing lower margins, can only stay soft for so long. All those 12-year-old ICE cars keep wearing out. Cars crash every day. Soft sales create a backlog for future sales. That means margins will start to grow, probably by late next year and, combined with steadily increasing volumes, the price will rise. And this is before we even consider rising sales of Megapacks, which currently have higher margins than their autos!

FSD is simply the option that will pay out big when it's solved. Until then, we have plenty of growth in autos, Megapacks and likely margins on both of them as we enter the steep part of the S-curves of both EV adoption and also energy storage. In other words, the shit's about to hit the fan and it ain't gonna take 5 frickin' years for investors to wake up to that!

If FSD isn't solved then the value for Tesla (given its P/E ratio) already anticipates all potential future growth. That is why TSLA stock yoyo's so much!

I mean I wouldn't touch TSLA if Tesla wasn't working on solving autonomy. In other words, if you're telling me that Tesla will only make EVs, battery packs, and energy then the value isn't there for me given the risk (of execution, volatility, etc.). Its current P/E ratio is very rich and is 2x to 3x what normal tech companies are assigned, and 10x to 20x what normal auto-car companies are assigned.

FSD is where it gets interesting. And it gets fascinating once you add robots!

So I still believe that stock won't go anywhere beyond $300 unless a major catalyst happens, like Model 2 announcement (or the next-gen platform is revealed). But again, when is that going to happen? Not next year. Maybe 2025? Definitely 2026.

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