TSLA vs Cybertruck expectations

[cvalue13]

May be true but depends on how much of the pie CT takes and what margins are, that could be healthy size footnote.

Q1 22 vs Q1 23 pickup sales:

Look friend, I think the truck TAM is real big, and AFTER the S3XY it makes tons of sense for Tesla to get into it. (Plus it’s fun, and plays to Musk’s autistic-wants-to-be-cool-and-macho tick).

BUT JUST IN CASE ANYONE INVESTING IS CONFUSED:

the data you are showing is for ALL of those OEM’s full-sized and OVER trucks: for example, for Ford, that ranges from e.g., standard consumer 1/2 ton F-150, to all fleet sales, and all the way to the F-750s. Same for all the other OEM’s there. Trucks in excess of the F150 size (or fleet included) accounts for >40% (in units) of Ford’s annual sales, and more than that in % in revenue.

Oe if we narrow the aperture and look only amongst the retail F-150s, Ford offers 8 trim levels, starting at $33,365.

Meanwhile-meanwhile, the Cybertruck being released on Nov 30 is 1.5 trims, in middle-of-pack in terms of 1/2 ton capabilities, back of pack for 1/2 ton interior size (which for 1/2 tons is maybe THE key feature - or else people buy F250s for stats), and MSRP isn’t yet known.



Now don’t get me wrong, I’m here because I think Tesla could be offering something real compelling to the retail 1/2 ton retail market, at the upper-middle price point.

But when it comes to CyberTruck TAM/SAM, in an $TSLA relevant thread, a post showing the “F-series” (and equiv) data for all OEMs retail+fleet, could be a bit disorienting!

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[Diehard]

Look friend, I think the truck TAM is real big, and AFTER the S3XY it makes tons of sense for Tesla to get into it. (Plus it’s fun, and plays to Musk’s autistic-wants-to-be-cool-and-macho tick).

BUT JUST IN CASE ANYONE INVESTING IS CONFUSED:

the data you are showing is for ALL of those OEM’s full-sized and OVER trucks: for example, for Ford, that ranges from e.g., standard consumer 1/2 ton F-150, to all fleet sales, and all the way to the F-750s. Same for all the other OEM’s there. Trucks in excess of the F150 size (or fleet included) accounts for >40% (in units) of Ford’s annual sales, and more than that in % in revenue.

Oe if we narrow the aperture and look only amongst the retail F-150s, Ford offers 8 trim levels, starting at $33,365.

Meanwhile-meanwhile, the Cybertruck being released on Nov 30 is 1.5 trims, in middle-of-pack in terms of 1/2 ton capabilities, back of pack for 1/2 ton interior size (which for 1/2 tons is maybe THE key feature - or else people buy F250s for stats), and MSRP isn’t yet known.



Now don’t get me wrong, I’m here because I think Tesla could be offering something real compelling to the retail 1/2 ton retail market, at the upper-middle price point.

But when it comes to CyberTruck TAM/SAM, in an $TSLA relevant thread, a post showing the “F-series” (and equiv) data for all OEMs retail+fleet, could be a bit disorienting!

sure but the data is for a quarter. If you take the CT relevant part of each, multiply by 4 and add them up, wait until interest rates come down, it is still a good chunk of demand, CT can steal from. Of course people say CT is stealing mostly from non-truck ICE market but I really don’t know who is trading what for CT.

 

[Arctic_White]

May be true but depends on how much of the pie CT takes and what margins are, that could be healthy size footnote.

Q1 22 vs Q1 23 pickup sales:

Tesla has said that they expect to make ~250K units per year once fully ramped up. That could be b/w 2 and 3 years from now.

Even if Tesla makes 25% gross margins on the Cybertruck (which I don't think they will but let's just give them that), the pure gross profits will be small as compared to what Tesla is set to generate from its other businesses. This of course assumed FSD is solved so this is all speculative here.

With that said, I think the Cybertruck will barely be a net-positive to Tesla's finances given the relatively low production volume.

I think Tesla will produce b/w 70K and 100K Cybertrucks in 2024, roughly double that in 2025, and won't hit max production of 250K units annually until 2026.

By that time, the next-gen platform will be out and is set to sell at volumes never seen before.

 

[Diehard]

Tesla has said that they expect to make ~250K units per year once fully ramped up. That could be b/w 2 and 3 years from now.

Even if Tesla makes 25% gross margins on the Cybertruck (which I don't think they will but let's just give them that), the pure gross profits will be small as compared to what Tesla is set to generate from its other businesses. This of course assumed FSD is solved so this is all speculative here.

With that said, I think the Cybertruck will barely be a net-positive to Tesla's finances given the relatively low production volume.

I think Tesla will produce b/w 70K and 100K Cybertrucks in 2024, roughly double that in 2025, and won't hit max production of 250K units annually until 2026.

By that time, the next-gen platform will be out and is set to sell at volumes never seen before.

Beauty of FSD is once operational, it does not need much raw material and labor, it is mostly profit. However as GM is finding out now, it is a bit of a wild card. Once a Tesla runs over a cute dog, regardless of how statistically insignificant, things can get shaky. Of course Tesla can always say, our records show, that dog was suicidal and had history of jumping in front of Tesla’s. AI knows the owner and decided to grant the dog’s wish this time. CT being a significant part of Tesla’s revenue depends on whether the judge on the case is a cat person or the dog person.

 

[scottf200]

...
I think Tesla will produce b/w 70K and 100K Cybertrucks in 2024, roughly double that in 2025, and won't hit max production of 250K units annually until 2026.

By that time, the next-gen platform will be out and is set to sell at volumes never seen before.

Re: 2024, 25, 26 dates above.
I suspect 2025 and 26 to be pretty competitive and they will have had plenty of time to study the CT. I think the OTA kinks others besides Tesla have will be worked out as well.

Ford's Project T3, the follow-up to the F-150 Lightning, is expected to begin production in 2025. The second-generation electric pickup truck will be built at Ford's Blue Oval City factory in Tennessee. The factory will be capable of producing 500,000 EV trucks per year.​

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