Updated Predicted Cybertruck Pricing

[Cybr on]

Fair point, though Americans tend to carry bulky loads more than heavy. And our licensing is shoddy, comparitively.

I would love to be able to carry more than a ton of bricks ^-^

-Crissa

It’s always fun for me when I get to use translate. Awesome !!!

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[New_Mariner]

With all the whining about the Lightning towing numbers, I would like to see at least a 400 mile dual CT. Should be under a 10K price increase. Towing numbers would be acceptable and would be a better alternative to what everyone else is producing and pricing. 300 mile Ford is around 73K minimum. That is if the dealer does not try and jack up MSRP.

 

[SwampNut]

Seems about as reliable as FSD release dates.

 

[Mike electric future]

Well, here it is folks, the most up-to-date Cybertruck pricing scale. We have carefully deconstructed the original Cybertruck price, and using the most advanced algorithm available to date, reconstructed a sliding scale that closely mirrors market conditions on all levels of factors, such as materials, labor and other elements including batteries and their increased availability, increased stainless steel production, decreased reliance on chips as programming takes a bigger role, and the emerging circumstance of Tesla now owning a large portion of the lithium mining sector. Even as other car manufacturers face increased costs across the board, Tesla has managed to reduce costs on some key components of production, and as they ramp production, their costs are reduced as they're able to to, simply put, pump out more vehicles in a shorter time frame, reducing labor costs even as labor increases on a per-hour basis. Here, then, is the new scale:
Single motor: $36,800.
Dual motor: $45,200.
Tri motor: $64,990.
Quad motor giga monster beast mode 1000 mile range: $71,000.
These prices will be valid for all those who have made a reservation to date, and are just as valid as any other guesses we've seen so far, only we like these a lot more than some of the doomsday predictions previously seen on this site. Have a great weekend, my friends.
CYBERMAN

There is no way any of are going to be that cheap. The Lightning tops out at about 100k, good luck getting one. The cybertruck will need a 9k giga press. The model Y uses a 6k and is 60k? no way the truck is going to be less than 70k for a dual motor. you can use all the algorithms you want but a truck will never be cheaper than a car. I just checked a model 3 all wheel drive will cost 61k.

 

[Ogre]

There is no way any of are going to be that cheap. The Lightning tops out at about 100k, good luck getting one. The cybertruck will need a 9k giga press. The model Y uses a 6k and is 60k? no way the truck is going to be less than 70k for a dual motor. you can use all the algorithms you want but a truck will never be cheaper than a car. I just checked a model 3 all wheel drive will cost 61k.

You can get a reasonably decent F150 Lightning for under $55k. I would not be at all surprised to see a Cybertruck in that ballpark. I find that to be a far more likely base price than $70k which is a 75% increase over the announced base price.

Don’t get these guesses which are way beyond inflation, competitive prices, or other Tesla price increases.

 

[FutureBoy]

There is no way any of are going to be that cheap. The Lightning tops out at about 100k, good luck getting one. The cybertruck will need a 9k giga press. The model Y uses a 6k and is 60k? no way the truck is going to be less than 70k for a dual motor. you can use all the algorithms you want but a truck will never be cheaper than a car. I just checked a model 3 all wheel drive will cost 61k.

Um.... There are a few issues with your assertion. The main one being that you are basing the price of the CT on a comparison with the CURRENT price of a Model 3/Y. The current Tesla vehicle prices are not the prices that Tesla is being forced to set in order to make a profit. In fact their profit margin is well above what any other auto manufacturer can get or has any reasonable expectation to demand.

Instead, from what I understand, Tesla keeps raising prices so that the backlog of orders does not spiral way out of control like the current CT preorders did. As more vehicles come into the order system, if the expected delivery date gets pushed past some level that Tesla deems to be "too long" then the price of that vehicle gets raised so that the number of pre-orders slows a bit. As such, we cannot use the price of these vehicles to comparatively price the CT.

We don't know yet exactly how Tesla will decide to price the CT. We do know that the original CT prices where shockingly lower than expected and notably lower than the prices that competitor ICE trucks were coming in at. Since then some other BEV competitor trucks have been announced or released at considerably higher prices. Some companies are trying to keep the customer prices pretty close to MSRP. Some of those same companies though may not have enough margin to actually make any profit on those trucks.

So what about Tesla and the CT. We know what the original announced prices were. And we know that Tesla tends to plan out way ahead with long term materials contracts that may help keep the initial CT prices moderated. But I acknowledge that the original prices were from before the pandemic and all that it brought with it. Also, due to some materials constraints (notably lithium for batteries, and the development of the new 4680 battery factories) there has been a long delay in getting the CT into production. To top it off, the original CT1, CT2, CT3 configurations have been expanded to include at CT4 and Tesla has not ever shared any pricing on the CT4.

Given all of that, I really can't tell you what the final prices will be. And even if we find out exactly what the prices will be when the first trucks come off the line, we don't know how long those prices will last. If over 1 million CT orders continue to be valid and expected, there will be a considerable amount of time between the first CT and the millionth CT. Will the initial prices hold all the way out to the millionth CT? Hard to say.

Instinctually though, I'd say that the final prices of the CT will continue to be shockingly lower than other manufacturers prices. On the other hand, if the orders start piling up again for CTs and Tesla ends up heading quickly to the two millionth order, I'd bet that the new order prices will start to rise. Possibly even higher than the prices of the competition trucks.

Thing is though. All the discussion about how crazy expensive the CT is going to be, that Tesla will never honor the original quoted prices, that we are getting the raw end of a bad deal.... This is all FUD. None of it has any basis in fact. And most of it uses fantastical comparisons or irrelevant "data" to essentially scare anyone who will listen. It's just a bunch of emotional whining. Everyone should just get ahold of themselves. Worrying does absolutely no good and has a possible side effect of causing extra stress with possible early end of life scenarios. Buck it up snowflakes. Get on with your lives and come back around when there is some actual real evidence or announcement from Tesla.

For all the retirees and older crowd that are wanting their trucks within their lifetime, I see you and your point. I'm guessing though that shortening your lives with worry stress won't help the situation. Perhaps we just need a wonderful distraction for a while. Anyone have any ideas for that?

 

[charliemagpie]

Ok.. I think we fail to consider this :

Elon said everyone will likely one day catch up to FSD, they will likely catch up making batteries.

But he said l, Tesla will maintain a manufacturing advantage.

That means if the truck is too expensive, I will be making money on shares and over time, I can afford it one way or another. Or

the truck will be affordable to the masses by taking advantage of manufacturing prowess. Which I think will be the way to go if we wish to sell in the millions.

 

[CyberGus]

I am absolutely certain that the Cybertruck will cost exactly what I am willing to pay.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

One year of 8% is less than four years of regular inflation, which they would have anticipated. There was at least four years of reservations when they stopped giving us prices last year. And at that point, they knew they were already a year late.

So while it may seem logical to say to add in all this inflation... It would have already bee in calculations made in 2019. And we can anticipate how much leeway they had budgeted by when they cut off the pricing. And they cut off the pricing when inflation projections ate those extra four years.

Anyhow, there's also no use fretting or 'accepting' price increases that don't yet exist.

-Crissa

We know that there is always a chance that Tesla will not be able to honor their price quotes. We know that they would have taken out as many contracts to fix the price of materials for the known number of reservations years ago. We know that it is extremely important to EM/Tesla to provide an affordable alternative to the current ICE pickups. We know that they will try their damndest to honor quotes and that the ramifications of not doing so will be great. Anything beyond this is unwarranted fear mongering, but I will try to save up a buffer just in case.

 

[Zabhawkin]

When Rivian went to up the price on its reservation holders things didn't go so well for them. If Tesla tries to do the same the press will have a field day with it. Using what has happened recently as a guide I doubt we will see a significant change in pricing.

 

[SwampNut]

A mediocre truck from a nobody company that was already tens of thousands more? That's a comparison?

 

[Ogre]

A mediocre truck from a nobody company that was already tens of thousands more? That's a comparison?

Hmmm

A lot of people love the Rivian. Not just reviewers.

If it were priced better I might have bought that instead of the Cybertruck just due to the smaller size.

Though charging it seems to be an issue.

 

[SwampNut]

Hmmm

A lot of people love the Rivian. Not just reviewers.

If it were priced better I might have bought that instead of the Cybertruck just due to the smaller size.

Though charging it seems to be an issue.

Nowhere did I say "nobody likes it."

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Nowhere did I say "nobody likes it."

But you did say "mediocre truck" which implies that the consensus is 'par' or 'below par'. My impression from reading reviews is 'above par'.

 

[SwampNut]

I see it as medium, average, nothing special, etc. What's par for a category of vehicle that doesn't exist yet?

Manufacturer is a crap shoot. New, no track record, who will service it, etc etc.

Look at the charging comment above.

Look at the price.

No comparison to Tesla and Ford in my mind.

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