What percentage of pre-orders will actually buy?

Mini2nut

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40% will hit the refund button. A measly $100 does not show a commitment to purchase a big ticket item like an automobile. Make it $2500 and it might go up to 80%.





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pjfw8

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I would imagine its more like 75% of the pre-orders will not turn into immediate orders. Refundable $100 is a very low bar. And as mentioned, many people reserved one of each configuration, or a couple for their friends.
I agree. Many will second guess. Also, the quality issues on early 3's and now Y's may encourage buyers to wait a few months or more.
 

Mini2nut

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The #1 gripe about Tesla right now is the inconsistent quality of the panel fitment and exterior paint. But the Silicon Valley based company seems to have the drivetrain and software down to a science.
 
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Sirfun

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The number will go way up if people can resell them for more than they paid.
 

Mini2nut

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A Tesla reservation specifically states;

"Your Reservation is not transferable or assignable to another party without the prior written approval of Tesla."

I can’t speak for other states but that would be challenge for CA residents if they choose to “flip” their reserved CT for a profit. Vehicle registration, sales tax, etc. round up to around 10% of a vehicles purchase price. If you can sell it for 15% - 20% Above MSRP that would make financial sense.

I am sure once they hit the road some well heeled buyers who need to own “the latest and greatest” might be willing to pay up to 25% over sticker to own one. I am confident we will read about buyers who paid $100k + for a Cybertruck from early reservation holders.
 
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Balthezor

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I don't know why people would want to back down. Even if you don't want it you can sell your reservation to somone who really wants it. The people that really want the cybertruck will pay to move up the list to get it sooner.
Read about someone who sold a Model 3 preorder on Ebay. For like $3000. Tesla wouldn't honor it. In the end, the buyer got screwed and seller kept the $3000.

I'm curious how many reservations are for the Robo taxi folks. How many of those folks will actually purchase 5+ of the dual motors that they preordered in 2022. If I'm a betting man, not many will complete the purchase. I don't think the robotaxi features will be ready in 2022, or 2023 or hell 2025. Just a guess.

I'm sure you can sell one to people who can't wait. But this isn't an Iphone and the market for that is very slim.
 

Daweism

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The #1 gripe about Tesla right now is the inconsistent quality of the panel fitment and exterior paint. The Silicon Valley based company seem to have the drivetrain and software down to a science.

I hope this is not an issue with the Cybertruck, it would get a much bigger backlash if so.
 

KendrickMB

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I wouldn't be surprised if more than half cancelled. $100 is an easy deposit, and many people ordered multiples because they are indecisive on which trim level. If Tesla doesn't fix their quality control issues, I expect more to cancel.
 

ajdelange

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I've seen several people indicate that they have ordered as many as 5 intending to drive one and pay for it by putting the others into Robo Taxi service. As the delivery date approaches and it becomes apparent that there isn't going to be any robo taxis running around any time soon I expect most of them will cancel at least some of their reservations but how many people were gullible enough to the point that they would do this in the first place? Can't be too many.

There are lots of retired guys on here. We have to face the fact that we may get collected before we can collect our trucks.

As has been noted, the bar was set very low. Certainly some number were reserved on a "what do I have to lose" basis and I'm sure some ordered one for themselves and one for a spouse or son or mistress.

The biggest threat to the erosion of the reservation list is the entry of some other truck into the market space which is more appealing to the CT reservation holder for whatever reason such as
•More range
•Looks more conventional
•Available sooner
•One or more "cool" features that CT doesn't have
•Less Expensive
 

Balthezor

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I've seen several people indicate that they have ordered as many as 5 intending to drive one and pay for it by putting the others into Robo Taxi service. As the delivery date approaches and it becomes apparent that there isn't going to be any robo taxis running around any time soon I expect most of them will cancel at least some of their reservations but how many people were gullible enough to the point that they would do this in the first place? Can't be too many.

There are lots of retired guys on here. We have to face the fact that we may get collected before we can collect our trucks.

As has been noted, the bar was set very low. Certainly some number were reserved on a "what do I have to lose" basis and I'm sure some ordered one for themselves and one for a spouse or son or mistress.

The biggest threat to the erosion of the reservation list is the entry of some other truck into the market space which is more appealing to the CT reservation holder for whatever reason such as
•More range
•Looks more conventional
•Available sooner
•One or more "cool" features that CT doesn't have
•Less Expensive
Completely agree with you, but I would put the robotaxi people above another truck on erosion of the list. I think the 5+ reservations for this robotaxi really inflated the list. There's not really any competition out there except for Rivian. That thing is expensive. What do I know.
 

ajdelange

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I think Rivian is interesting because I think they lost reservations (for which they took $1K) when the CT announced 500 mi range (topping their 400) and when it became apparent (partly because of COVID) that their truck isn't going to be available that much sooner than the CT. Same could happen to Tesla I suppose. Nikola? (that's a joke - I don't use those little faces).
 

Tinker71

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I think lots of people will back out., but lots of people would want to take their place. If I were savi or could spell savie? I would set up a secondary market. People with a decent reservation number could sell to others.... or with out a transfer, people could go ahead with their purchase and immediately sell to a prearranged buyer. Both with a premium or fee.
 

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