40% will hit the refund button. A measly $100 does not show a commitment to purchase a big ticket item like an automobile. Make it $2500 and it might go up to 80%.
I agree. Many will second guess. Also, the quality issues on early 3's and now Y's may encourage buyers to wait a few months or more.I would imagine its more like 75% of the pre-orders will not turn into immediate orders. Refundable $100 is a very low bar. And as mentioned, many people reserved one of each configuration, or a couple for their friends.
Read about someone who sold a Model 3 preorder on Ebay. For like $3000. Tesla wouldn't honor it. In the end, the buyer got screwed and seller kept the $3000.I don't know why people would want to back down. Even if you don't want it you can sell your reservation to somone who really wants it. The people that really want the cybertruck will pay to move up the list to get it sooner.
The #1 gripe about Tesla right now is the inconsistent quality of the panel fitment and exterior paint. The Silicon Valley based company seem to have the drivetrain and software down to a science.
Completely agree with you, but I would put the robotaxi people above another truck on erosion of the list. I think the 5+ reservations for this robotaxi really inflated the list. There's not really any competition out there except for Rivian. That thing is expensive. What do I know.I've seen several people indicate that they have ordered as many as 5 intending to drive one and pay for it by putting the others into Robo Taxi service. As the delivery date approaches and it becomes apparent that there isn't going to be any robo taxis running around any time soon I expect most of them will cancel at least some of their reservations but how many people were gullible enough to the point that they would do this in the first place? Can't be too many.
There are lots of retired guys on here. We have to face the fact that we may get collected before we can collect our trucks.
As has been noted, the bar was set very low. Certainly some number were reserved on a "what do I have to lose" basis and I'm sure some ordered one for themselves and one for a spouse or son or mistress.
The biggest threat to the erosion of the reservation list is the entry of some other truck into the market space which is more appealing to the CT reservation holder for whatever reason such as
•Looks more conventional
•One or more "cool" features that CT doesn't have