What's a deal-breaker for you?

[Crissa]

I've driven >200 miles without stopping many times, especially when driving up/down I-5 between WA and CA. Start before dawn to get through Seattle before commute traffic and not stop until I'm well past Portland before I fill up with gas. In my younger old age, I left Modesto at 3:30am, got to just past Tacoma, WA, before hitting commute traffic (3:30pm). Took 4 hrs to get the last 100 miles to Anacortes. That trip was almost 900 miles, all in one stupid day. I stopped for gas twice in my Corolla. I'm sure I'm not the only crazy person to put that kind of mileage on my body.

I've done it a couple times in the last year. Can doesn't mean should. Definitely shouldn't do it towing.

But there's no reason to do this. You should stop and pee at least.

-Crissa

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[CyberGus]

I've driven >200 miles without stopping many times, especially when driving up/down I-5 between WA and CA. Start before dawn to get through Seattle before commute traffic and not stop until I'm well past Portland before I fill up with gas. In my younger old age, I left Modesto at 3:30am, got to just past Tacoma, WA, before hitting commute traffic (3:30pm). Took 4 hrs to get the last 100 miles to Anacortes. That trip was almost 900 miles, all in one stupid day. I stopped for gas twice in my Corolla. I'm sure I'm not the only crazy person to put that kind of mileage on my body.

I love a good road trip, but they’re rare. Average vehicles clock 1000 miles in a month, so getting half that in a day is a low-percentile example.

I think I’m above-average peeing tho

 

[Throwcomputer]

Cost. That's it. Significantly more than a minor increase over announced prices and I'll be looking at a model y, or another brands options.

None of the features or specs are a deal breaker for me. I love the looks, even as it gets uglier!

At it's ugliest, is still way cooler looking than my butt ugly first gen Ridgeline!

 

[Ogre]

I have a rule, the share price needs to be $350.

I will have a CT with the lot. And a large Coke. Medium chips.

Pre-split I said I can justify a truck that costs 69x the share price. Still more or less true.

Assuming the price is relatively stationary including the IRA incentives, I‘ll buy the dual motor, if share price recovers then tri motor or whatever comes along around $70k. I just can’t see paying more than that for a truck. Even that is silliness.

 

[charliemagpie]

Maybe if I was in the US. In AU, our choices are limited.

3 or 4 motor, In my hand for say $160,000, all things considered, it's a bargain.
(it will probably end up between $140,000-$160,000)


I've pulled this up once before, (budget aside) for those who don't know how lucky you are, feast your eyes on this:



https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/ram/1500/victoria-state/melbourne-region/?sort=Price

e.g.

 

[Deleted member 12457]

I love a good road trip, but they’re rare. Average vehicles clock 1000 miles in a month, so getting half that in a day is a low-percentile example.

I think I’m above-average peeing tho

When I was working, my daily commute was a bit over 100 miles and I did this for 25 years. Luckily no accidents or tickets. This put me at an easy 2000 miles/month plus weekend driving. This was in crazy commute traffic over the Altamont Pass before they widened I-580 and I-205 to 6 lanes. For many Californian drivers, this was a daily commute distance with some of my neighbors driving even further.

 

[Arctic_White]

kind of revenues solving autonomy

FSD is most definitely NOT priced into TSLA, I don't think a single Wall Street analyst includes the kind of revenues solving autonomy will bring.

The current high P/E multiple of TSLA is due to the kind of margins Tesla can generate from car sales, even though their two newest factories are not anywhere near fully ramped. Tesla could forget about the Cybertruck, the Cybervan and the smaller world car while continuing to ramp Model 3 and Model Y and, with those two models alone, could go from less than 4% market share to somewhere around 25% market share, or more, based on how cost effective these two models are to purchase and own. That's a reflection of how efficiently Tesla can manufacture and distribute autos relative to the rest. This alone can justify the current valuation of TSLA.

The energy storage battery business has huge earnings potential and will add billions to earnings. Cybertruck will end the F-150's best selling designation that it's had for 46 consecutive years by 2025 (if not late next year). Cybertruck will not outsell the F-150 by then, but it will disrupt the entire automotive market in ways that will surprise auto analysts. These earnings are not built into the stock price since most auto analysts are under the mistaken assumption that Cybertruck will be a niche product. Cybervan/Cyber SUV will follow. These vehicles will have industry leading margins, even higher than Tesla's current passenger cars.

Current share price does not reflect the development of affordable humanoid robots which will be hitting the market in this decade. Wall Street does not model earnings from any of these things while real investors, who want to see their unneeded capital grow, will start to value these things with increasing visibility. Time is the magic ingredient. Tesla demands excellence from their employees who know they will be handsomely rewarded, not only by a sense of satisfaction by being part of something that is bigger and more important to humanity than themselves, but also by the relentless increase in the value of the company stock options that every Tesla employee is granted. Other companies are literally incapable of turning their bloated and short-sighted companies around in a manner that will allow them to compete effectively against Tesla. It comes down to their poor performance when it comes to being able to bring value to the consumer. They waste consumer's money on big advertising spends that are meaningless too, in addition to all their internal corporate inefficiencies. The gap is still widening, not shrinking as the media likes to pretend, the media is actively protecting their revenue since legacy auto still sends them billions of dollars to pimp their over-priced and un-refined wares.

Buying TSLA stock, and holding for the next ten years, is just about the lowest risk/highest reward way you can 10X your unneeded capital in that timeframe. Sure, there are other stocks that will 10X (and more) in the same timeframe, but good luck identifying them. If things go on the better side of well, TSLA could 20X or more in that timeframe. The chances of TSLA stock crashing and burning, or stagnating for 10 years, is pretty damn low due to the importance to humanity of their mission and the dedication of the brilliant people who chose to carry it out. Very few methods of supporting your family are as rewarding as working for an efficient and innovative company dedicated to solving some of the planets most pressing problems. It makes it essentially impossible for legacy companies to compete with this kind of focused efficiency. This is what has been driving Tesla's success and will continue to drive it as we enter into a world increasingly driven by AI and the efficiencies of massive scale. Humanity cannot continue to grow and thrive without it and consumers will always search out the products that bring the most value, at the lowest cost, to their families. For the vast numbers of earth's billions of inhabitants, there is not the luxury of wasting money on products pimped by wasteful and bloated companies who innovate at a snail's pace and the planet cannot wait that long anyway.

Yet another excellent post.

Wall Street can't think beyond the next quarter. At most, they care about the next 12 months. The Street still thinks Tesla will only produce 7M vehicles by 2030. LOL.

The reason why Tesla 10x is because of both the growth story as well as keeping very high gross margins. Lately, gross margins have been under pressure due to the macro environment. Thus the stock has tanked.

I do not know what the next 3 - 5 years will bring. We could have TSLA go nowhere or it could go back up to its all-time high (ATH). No one knows for sure. With that said, if your time horizon is at least 10 years, the stock is likely to reward you very well. As long as you don't panic and sell, I see no reason why it won't 10x within a decade. Add the AI/Robots/Dojo and it can 20x from here on out. But my model spits out a ridiculous amount of revenue and profits when I include the robots, so I have left it out. LOL.

Energy is going to be double what the EV business will be. So just keep that in mind. It won't happen overnight. It'll take a while. Just have patience and keep adding.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Apologies if a similar thread already exists, but I was curious if anything might cause people to opt out of the Cybertruck as we get closer to launch.

After final specs, pricing and performance figures are released is there something specific that would lead you to cancel your reservation?

How about once test drives are available?

For me (and many others) a price change beyond 10-15% of the initial figures would be a deal-breaker. If the CT felt unwieldy and un-parkable in the city that would also cause some hesitation.

Otherwise, I'm all in ...barring some unforeseen pitfall.

If Tesla changes out the 3 mm stainless for something else I would think hard about the Cybertruck. But I have faith that this is one thing they will not change.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I have a rule, the share price needs to be $350.

I will have a CT with the lot. And a large Coke. Medium chips.

Wouldn't that be great? I'd settle for $300 right now with a smile. $350 would be great.

 

[CyberGus]

Maybe if I was in the US. In AU, our choices are limited.

3 or 4 motor, In my hand for say $160,000, all things considered, it's a bargain.
(it will probably end up between $140,000-$160,000)


I've pulled this up once before, (budget aside) for those who don't know how lucky you are, feast your eyes on this:



https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/ram/1500/victoria-state/melbourne-region/?sort=Price

e.g.

To be fair, that $299,000AUD is "only" $199,000USD

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Pretty much guarantee it won't get 500+ miles while towing 7,500lbs. You are basically asking for 1,000 miles of range unloaded.

I think 250 miles is more realistic looking at the F150 and Rivian. The battery would have to be absolutely massive to get over 500 miles while towing (only 1 EV currently can do this without towing).


A comparison for you:
R1T gets about 140 miles range when towing over 7,000 lbs.
A Lightning made it 80 miles towing 6,000 lbs.

"Pretty much guarantee"? Comparing to Lightning, Rivian, etc. is not valid since Tesla is the industry leader in efficiency and battery technology. No one knows what the numbers will be but they will certainly be better than others.

 

[CyberGus]

When I was working, my daily commute was a bit over 100 miles and I did this for 25 years. Luckily no accidents or tickets. This put me at an easy 2000 miles/month plus weekend driving. This was in crazy commute traffic over the Altamont Pass before they widened I-580 and I-205 to 6 lanes. For many Californian drivers, this was a daily commute distance with some of my neighbors driving even further.

I hear ya. I had a commute 50-miles each way, 4 hours in the car every day. Once this deprived me of the will to live, I moved to within walking distance of my office, and I was never happier.

But yeah if I were doing that in an EV it would require home charging.

 

[Zelectric]

Having a midgate would be a deal breaker.

 

[TirNaOg]

Price would be the main thing.
IF it goes up to much over their released price then tis a goner.

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