Why aren't you accepting the Foundation Series invitation?

[Tiberius]

I think what makes it worse is that it's $20k extra for Foundation series on both AWS and Beast, but you get less for your extra cash with the AWD.
That's assuming the estimated prices of the base vehicle are accurate. Who knows, maybe it will be less and the folks getting early will have ended up spending more that $20k extra.
Really not that desperate to own one of the very first, been there, done that
[edit]
Just to add, Foundation series on the Beast also includes the credit to install home power sharing, this isn't included in the AWD even though the cost is the same. So the $20k on AWD is appalling value.

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[Longranger]

My reason for not accepting my invite has evolved over the past month. The primary reason is that I did not see 27.5 K value in the foundation package. 7.5K is added for lost AWD rebate. With state rebate that could be higher. I also do not care for the white trim in a vehicle I will get dirty.

The decision to wait was hard at first, particularly looking at the likelihood of now needing to wait till 2025 for a nonfoundation CT. I will need to at least sit in the CT to check out the seats, visibility etc.. before plunking down close to 100K. The turbulence regarding range, towing, battery tech, charging curve, potential repair costs etc.. put enough dust in the air to make me uncomfortable. Have to admit this rollout process has taken some of the luster off the CT for me.

 

[derekmw]

Same here. Got invite to order but I'm holding. Due to:
- I only buy EV's as a new vehicle to take advantage of the incentives like $7500 - which won't qualify
- I don't want an FS series and all that it includes - I couldn't care less of limited series etching, FSD, or powershare
- I would much rather save that ~$27.5k

 

[anionic1]

For the overwhelming majority of reservation holders it’s the higher MSRP.

Many reservation holders were stunned at the huge price increase from 2019 estimates. The AWD model went from $50k to $80k, a $30k price jump.

Foundation Series AWD Cybertruck $100k vs. $80k is significant PLUS the possibility of a $7500 federal tax credit.

Tesla is hurting right now and frankly Elon is sort of being a jerk and not helping the cause in my opinion. I wouldnt be surprised if they push the FS series only sales as far as they can without major backlash. IMO thats at least a year. They seem to be working through FS invites at a rate of about 10,000 per week having gone from 112740000 to 11284000 in about 10 weeks and i bet that speeds up as they get to the later reservation holders and lower acceptance/order rates. So my guess is they may actually invite about million reservation holders to order the FS option and overall I bet the order rate is 5%. or about 50,000 FS CTs. That seems reasonable to be their 2024 production. I am putting my crystal ball away now.

 

[steezymcfresh]

I won’t accept Tesla’s dealer markup. I could almost get a Y with that extra $$. Sucks to be in my position needing a 2nd Tesla:

• New Model 3 has a lot of new upgrades but not eligible for $7500 rebate.
• Model Y is a great deal but may be updated shortly to get all the Highland enhancements. Still an alluring option.
• Cybertruck is the best of the best but has Tesla’s unreasonable ~$30k markup after already raising price $30k from original estimated price.
  

I didn’t think Tesla would do us so dirty and make 2024 all Foundation Series orders. I was in the first batch of FS invites but continue to watch them go down the list for anyone who wants to pay the extra $$.

 

[Bartman]

Tesla is hurting right now and frankly Elon is sort of being a jerk and not helping the cause in my opinion. I wouldnt be surprised if they push the FS series only sales as far as they can without major backlash. IMO thats at least a year. They seem to be working through FS invites at a rate of about 10,000 per week having gone from 112740000 to 11284000 in about 10 weeks and i bet that speeds up as they get to the later reservation holders and lower acceptance/order rates. So my guess is they may actually invite about million reservation holders to order the FS option and overall I bet the order rate is 5%. or about 50,000 FS CTs. That seems reasonable to be their 2024 production. I am putting my crystal ball away now.

My crystal ball agrees with you that they are progressing through the RN #s, with FS invite offers, faster than some people think.

 

[derekmw]

My crystal ball agrees with you that they are progressing through the RN #s, with FS invite offers, faster than some people think.

It's really confusing. That's what I feel like to some degree, but then there is a situation like me and my buddy, both living here in SoCal. He placed his CT order the night of announcement, I placed mine the morning after. Both of us are current Tesla vehicle owners. I've already gotten an invite, but he still hasn't gotten his.

The only other difference between us is I've owned Tesla's since 2015, and currently on my 5th Tesla. Maybe that plays into it? Or it's just quite random. lol.

In any case, all this to say, there are still some who ordered the evening it was revealed, but still waiting for an invite to order.

 

[anionic1]

It's really confusing. That's what I feel like to some degree, but then there is a situation like me and my buddy, both living here in SoCal. He placed his CT order the night of announcement, I placed mine the morning after. Both of us are current Tesla vehicle owners. I've already gotten an invite, but he still hasn't gotten his.

The only other difference between us is I've owned Tesla's since 2015, and currently on my 5th Tesla. Maybe that plays into it? Or it's just quite random. lol.

In any case, all this to say, there are still some who ordered the evening it was revealed, but still waiting for an invite to order.

It really doesn't make sense why they would be skipping people. maybe they don't have the locations in their account etc. i am 11284xxxx and i got the invite last week. i think i ordered the day after it was around the 24 hr mark.

 

[Bartman]

My crystal ball agrees with you that they are progressing through the RN #s, with FS invite offers, faster than some people think.

.... But I think/guess the take rate, for FS, is way lower.

It's really confusing. That's what I feel like to some degree, but then there is a situation like me and my buddy, both living here in SoCal. He placed his CT order the night of announcement, I placed mine the morning after. Both of us are current Tesla vehicle owners. I've already gotten an invite, but he still hasn't gotten his.

The only other difference between us is I've owned Tesla's since 2015, and currently on my 5th Tesla. Maybe that plays into it? Or it's just quite random. lol.

In any case, all this to say, there are still some who ordered the evening it was revealed, but still waiting for an invite to order.

That's very interesting. It's reasonable to understand that there will be certain groups of people who will get bumped up to the front of the line, like:

Tesla Employees and Execs​

Major Shareholders​

Friends of Tesla Execs​

Influencers​

Certain other high profile people, who ask​

Anyone who has compromising pictures of Elon (just kidding)​

Then there will be trucks that go to their showrooms to be on display and maybe slated for test drive/demo vehicles and I get they may want to "spread the love around" and send a minimum number of vehicles to all areas of the US, which is also favorable for marketing. And I can even see some preferential treatment for previous Tesla customers and Tesla shareholders.
But at the end of the day, if some other "garden variety" person, who's "no better positioned" than your buddy, gets an invite before him, that just seems unfair. There's a reason why "orderly lines" exist. Because they work and keep people/customers from getting pissed off. One may not be thrilled about being in the middle, or the back, of any line, but if you are "where you are" and it's an "orderly line", and you're in the spot you're in because you got to the latter than the people in front of you, you understand and make peace with it. Seems like Tesla would be better off to be fair and reasonable,, with minor exceptions understood, and go in some kind of order of the RNs. But your buddy's situation makes no sense, unless Tesla just made a clerical error.

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[Crissa]

I can't afford it. It costs almost as much as my house did.

The same reason I didn't order a Rivian is the same reason I'm not buying a Cybertruck - it's now planned to be at a niche truck price.

-Crissa

PS, I don't understand people listing off things which were in the original prototype as reasons to not buy the Foundation Series, unless it's not also in the Foundation Series like range, the ramp, maybe the bed fell under your minimum...

 

[Tiberius]

.... But I think/guess the take rate, for FS, is way lower.

That's very interesting. It's reasonable to understand that there will be certain groups of people who will get bumped up to the front of the line, like:

Tesla Employees and Execs​

Major Shareholders​

Friends of Tesla Execs​

Influencers​

Certain other high profile people, who ask​

Anyone who has compromising pictures of Elon (just kidding)​

Then there will be trucks that go to their showrooms to be on display and maybe slated for test drive/demo vehicles and I get they may want to "spread the love around" and send a minimum number of vehicles to all areas of the US, which is also favorable for marketing. And I can even see some preferential treatment for previous Tesla customers and Tesla shareholders.
But at the end of the day, if some other "garden variety" person, who's "no better positioned" than your buddy, gets an invite before him, that just seems unfair. There's a reason why "orderly lines" exist. Because they work and keep people/customers from getting pissed off. One may not be thrilled about being in the middle, or the back, of any line, but if you are "where you are" and it's an "orderly line", and you're in the spot you're in because you got to the latter than the people in front of you, you understand and make peace with it. Seems like Tesla would be better off to be fair and reasonable,, with minor exceptions understood, and go in some kind of order of the RNs. But your buddy's situation makes no sense, unless Tesla just made a clerical error.

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I'm a nobody and got an invite, that's why I know why I'm not ordering a foundation series.

 

[Mattsplat]

Absolutely this, and it does not get talked about nearly enough. Remember when Elon claimed that Teslas would actually go up in value (because Robotaxi)? When he brought prices drastically down, he destroyed a lot of value for customers.

This is not just academic. Like I noted in my original post, my used Tesla lost an extra $20k in depreciation -- on top of anticipated depreciation based on historical trends, which I had already accounted for -- which is money I was planning to use from the sale of the vehicle to buy the Cybertruck whenever it decided to show up. Now that I've blown $20k on a toy (i..e, buying a hyper-depreciating Model S Performance instead of a Camry), I'm not blowing another $20k (the Foundation Series premium) on yet another toy.

But there's another point I want to make, which is that Tesla prices are very unstable. This is because demand and supply of Teslas is highly inelastic, which (Econ 101) causes huge price swings. On the demand side, there are people who really want an EV, and all other EV brands use sucky infrastructure, so Tesla is more or less the way to go. On the supply side, Tesla doesn't throttle production, instead making as many as they can (with the goal of sales volume) and adjusting prices down when inventory builds and adjusting up when delivery times increase.

Coming back to Cybertruck, I'd argue the inelasticities of supply and demand are even more extreme, which means even bigger price swings. Those who want a Cybertruck REALLY want one, and those who do not want one generally find it repulsive. The factory, meanwhile, is producing on the order of tens per day, with the goal of 10x that. So, expect prices to be extremely spiky.

The one big proviso here is, Elon noted in the earnings call that they didn't want to gouge people. This sounds laughable, but if you look at the history of high-demand/low-volume cars, this has been a real issue. The Hummer EV and Dodge Demon come to mind. OEMs wanted these halo cars to be affordable for enthusiasts, so they employed various tricks to keep prices down, with varying degrees of success.

Back to Econ 101: price controls lead to shortages and arbitrage (flipping and scalping). We know this is happening with CT because of the no-sale clause. This means CT valuations are actually way BELOW market value right now. So the CT is actually an excellent deal... right up until the factory gets pumping, the CT faithful are tapped out, and Elon slashes prices.

So the smart money would be to buy a CT, have fun with it for a year, and then sell at inflated prices, assuming you can time it before the inflection hits. Of course, if everyone else does this, it will lead to even crazier market conditions.

It's enough to make your head spin. I think it'll just enjoy my Model S for now. At least I can fully stretch out and camp in the warm, dry rear, unlike the CT, which will be important when I have to live in it because of my crappy financial decisions

Just want to add to your depreciation point. Took delivery of a MYLR In December 2022. After discount and taxes it was $70k. TWO WEEKS later, Tesla dropped the price by $20k. Here I am 13 months later and what was the trade in offer? $36k. I lost $34,000 of value in just 13 months. When I balked at the huge difference between what they got from me and what they were willing to give back, and I am not even kidding here, they told me they can't give me more than my car is worth and nobody forced me to buy it. I am 100% serious. They basically said it is your fault for trusting/buying a Tesla.

 

[sigintel]

I understand the conversion rate is way less than 5%...
way less.
3500-18000 in 2024.
The brand is succumbing to negative experience association.
The insurance, repair hassle, depreciation history...
Its becoming the pseudo sigma man experience.
Hoping the Plaid S Era is not "peak Tesla".

When you sell a "lifestyle" vehicle/brand, negative and toxic associations destroy value. We pay premium for how these things make us feel and want to be associated with what they represent. Most people dont want to experience, or be associated with a shitty experience.

We really need Elon to come to the conclusion that Mars will never have the atmosphere needed unless its core can be reheated beyond even mankind's extrapolated technological capabilities. Even if we could create the magnetic field needed to stop atmosphere from being stripped by solar wind, we would have a hell of a time stripping the gas from inner planets to get it there.
Ergo, it might be healthy to consider limiting distractions so he can save and love himself, his mind, his joy, the education systems of all the countries in the world, the social fabric that humanity is struggling with, and then, maybe, maybe, worry about electric vehicles. Love who you are while becoming who you want to be. Love those working with you for who they are and who they might become. Rebuild the trust between customer, employees and Elon.
Customers are part of your team.

Trust priority 1 over Performance; creates the highest performance teams in the world. We lost two Seals recently, not one.

A break down in trust between Elon, board, engineering, production and customers is end of Tesla.

Maybe consider that SpaceX just might be more successful and executions more realistic due to the median interpersonal skill set of those teams to communicate and function with his inner mind. Average emotional intelligence might just be higher among rocket scientists?

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