Why aren't you accepting the Foundation Series invitation?

[thedownwardmachine]

I got the Foundation Series invite, living in CA with my 112787xxx RN, but I'll not be accepting it. Here is why:

• The option prices are unknown, so it's not clear how good of a deal the Foundation Series is. For example, are A/T tires and rims a $500 upgrade, or $2000 upgrade, or what?
• It's not clear if FSD reservation prices will be honored. I hoped to lock mine in at $6k but they are charging $12k. This creates a $6k variability in the value estimate of the series for me.
• I cannot use the Powershare installation credit, since I don't own a detached single family home. I think they should allow people to choose the tent instead, since it costs the same as the Powershare credit.
• The Federal tax credit won't be available, since the MSRP is over $80k even for the AWD model.
• I'm underwater on my Model S and still paying down the extreme depreciation. I bought a used one in May 2022, just before Elon lowered retail prices by almost a third, which caused mine to lose about $20k of value in excess of expected depreciation. So I guess Tesla already got that Foundation Series premium out of me.

For those of you who got a Foundation Series invite and are not accepting, why not?

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[seanrarey]

... because after experiencing the Hummer tri motor, and the R1T quad motor, I am waiting for the dual motor variant. Individual motor control is a sorry sister compared to actual lockers.

 

[anionic1]

I thought fsd was confirmed to be part of the founders package.

 

[Idrenak]

I haven't gotten a FS invite but I would pass on it if I did. The 20k extra is not worth it for me even though I could afford it. A lot of the features that come with the FS I would not get anyway. I haul stuff in my current ice pu every day and would use it like a truck. I don't want self driving and I sure don't want a white interior on the farm. I am hearing that if you just want a dual motor that it may be 2025 before they're even available. I'm fine with that. I love Tesla and own quite a bit of their stock but there are some promising models coming out from GM and Ram that getting pushed to 2025 will allow me to make some more comparisons. Tough decisions coming up.

 

[Keeney]

Numerous reasons:
- The FS $20k adders I don't need/want.
- No $7500 tax credit.
- The No-Resale clause. Not going to be bullied by a company into such a one-sided agreement.
- Elon Musk politics.
- Stainless seems a PITA to keep looking good (worse than a black truck).
- My Ford Lightning F150 Pro that I bought in the meanwhile turned out to be way better than I thought it would be and with the reduced specs of the CT is just as capable for everything I use it for.

 

[mark555055c]

I thought fsd was confirmed to be part of the founders package.

It is.

 

[Prime8]

I got the invite in December also and the price to capability ratio doesn't work for me. The reviews since then have only reinforced my decision to "wait and see". If Tesla can iron out the bugs and also cut the production costs to lower the msrp I might be back in but that's going to be a couple of years at least I would guess. T3 by Ford might be out shortly after that so who knows..

 

[Mini2nut]

For the overwhelming majority of reservation holders it’s the higher MSRP.

Many reservation holders were stunned at the huge price increase from 2019 estimates. The AWD model went from $50k to $80k, a $30k price jump.

Foundation Series AWD Cybertruck $100k vs. $80k is significant PLUS the possibility of a $7500 federal tax credit.

 

[Tiberius]

I'm same as you. Don't see the value in the extra $20k and not into paying all that money just to get it earlier. I don't need a new vehicle immediately.
My list is

1. Unknown option prices or what will be in a standard AWD, worst is that I'd be prepaying for options I may not be able to use (PowerShare) with no option to get a credit (because there's no price)
2. Overpaying for FSD - It isn't worth $12k for me. Maybe when it's true "self driving" instead of a hands-on assistant. They tried pushing it to $15k last year but rolled that back after blowback.

Basically a wait and see. I didn't list battery/range etc because I know they will work on those things.

 

[VR Driving]

FSD is fun, but not $12k fun. If it was 3-5k, it would be a no-brainer and Tesla would have a huge adoption of FSD.

When Tesla allows non-foundation orders, it is effectively a price drop.

 

[Cyberman3000]

Pretty simple, the Foundation Series CT is not worth $120k++. At its current state of development, the "Cyberbeast" is worth $80-90k "Fully loaded". That's the price range I think we will see new Tri-motor CT's at in a year, give or take. Especially if they honor the old FSD price. After seeing Tesla absolutely BURN their customers in depreciating value, i'm in no rush.
It's a polygon superCAR, that has a truck bed right now.

 

[Jackcybertruck]

I got my order and placed it back in 12/23/2023 I am still waiting for the VIN #. I started the loan process and they want a down payment of 50K for the loan to be approved. I am waiting to get financing somewhere else. As I keep watching and hearing people that just got there truck with issues and such I keep having second thoughts on if I even want the truck now. I rather cancel and wait a year when more issues are resolved.

 

[VR Driving]

I'm sorta glad I don't live in a geographical area that gets the earliest launch vehicles. I'm the kind of guy that gets hits with the depreciation as I probably couldn't wait to get one.

But as with the Model 3, by the time I was able to get one, there were better variants that were not originally available at launch. Hopefully, the Cybertruck will be the same! I would want to wait for those higher-density 4680 trucks to roll out the line. But it's not likely to happen before 2025.

 

[thedownwardmachine]

After seeing Tesla absolutely BURN their customers in depreciating value, i'm in no rush.

Absolutely this, and it does not get talked about nearly enough. Remember when Elon claimed that Teslas would actually go up in value (because Robotaxi)? When he brought prices drastically down, he destroyed a lot of value for customers.

This is not just academic. Like I noted in my original post, my used Tesla lost an extra $20k in depreciation -- on top of anticipated depreciation based on historical trends, which I had already accounted for -- which is money I was planning to use from the sale of the vehicle to buy the Cybertruck whenever it decided to show up. Now that I've blown $20k on a toy (i..e, buying a hyper-depreciating Model S Performance instead of a Camry), I'm not blowing another $20k (the Foundation Series premium) on yet another toy.

But there's another point I want to make, which is that Tesla prices are very unstable. This is because demand and supply of Teslas is highly inelastic, which (Econ 101) causes huge price swings. On the demand side, there are people who really want an EV, and all other EV brands use sucky infrastructure, so Tesla is more or less the way to go. On the supply side, Tesla doesn't throttle production, instead making as many as they can (with the goal of sales volume) and adjusting prices down when inventory builds and adjusting up when delivery times increase.

Coming back to Cybertruck, I'd argue the inelasticities of supply and demand are even more extreme, which means even bigger price swings. Those who want a Cybertruck REALLY want one, and those who do not want one generally find it repulsive. The factory, meanwhile, is producing on the order of tens per day, with the goal of 10x that. So, expect prices to be extremely spiky.

The one big proviso here is, Elon noted in the earnings call that they didn't want to gouge people. This sounds laughable, but if you look at the history of high-demand/low-volume cars, this has been a real issue. The Hummer EV and Dodge Demon come to mind. OEMs wanted these halo cars to be affordable for enthusiasts, so they employed various tricks to keep prices down, with varying degrees of success.

Back to Econ 101: price controls lead to shortages and arbitrage (flipping and scalping). We know this is happening with CT because of the no-sale clause. This means CT valuations are actually way BELOW market value right now. So the CT is actually an excellent deal... right up until the factory gets pumping, the CT faithful are tapped out, and Elon slashes prices.

So the smart money would be to buy a CT, have fun with it for a year, and then sell at inflated prices, assuming you can time it before the inflection hits. Of course, if everyone else does this, it will lead to even crazier market conditions.

It's enough to make your head spin. I think it'll just enjoy my Model S for now. At least I can fully stretch out and camp in the warm, dry rear, unlike the CT, which will be important when I have to live in it because of my crappy financial decisions

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