Was the Tri-motor at Launch Price a massively better deal than the Dual?

[Tinker71]

Why, because you will sell it beforehand or because it will be trashed?

It took us 15 years to rack up 225k on our Sienna. I am planning on an Apterra for my on road adventures sans kids.

I also think the CT will be almost obsolete in 10 years due to battery tech advances. I am crossing my fingers that someone will make a 600 mile pack for my CT2ish (whatever the hell it is) at a reasonable cost. The battery cost and density should look pretty good about then.

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[CyberBC]

I have always been interested in tough vehicles with long lives for sustainability purposes. I lived in Venezuela for a while where they still use 70s land cruisers for ride in the bed buses because they are the only vehicle tough enough for the roads and the same for range rovers in Africa. Also, my wife and I made several trips in old Russian UAZ vans in Mongolia with multiple river crossings. It would do my heart well to see a Cybertruck doing the same using solar in 50 years.

 

[CyberBC]

With Starlink they can keep doing OTA updates in deepest darkest Congo ha ha.

 

[Ogre]

Sorry to dogleg the thread but a little assist: so many people talk about a 500mi range CT as though it’s gospel, and I haven’t followed closely enough to know what it’s based on (and google is now swamped with news of the semi’s 500mi range)

I take it that at some point Musk has “promised” that at least one CT will have a 500+ min range, and folks are hopeful that at least the tri if not quad will be it?

Saying things like “People treating things __which were on the launch list__ as Gospel” Is rude and a quick way to end up on my block list.

Likewise calling people stans.

Look back at Teslas history. They generally hit launch promises. They shit all over dates but hit features.

Personally, I find it ironic that so many people are willing to call launch stats nonsense and make up their own prices then expect people to respect their assumptions as truth. Lots of people seem to have it in their head that launch day was some kind of concept car moment where Musk makes a bunch of promises they can’t deliver. People said that about the Model S also, likewise the Model 3 and every other model.

If you want to bitch about delays, flame on. If you want to bitch about features being missing… learn your history.

 

[Ogre]

thanks

I suppose it’s been the decade since that cause me to not remember that …

The 500 mile range is still listed on the site Today.

 

[CyberBC]

Another thought. My end of life 210 mile range assumption becomes a 500 mile range again for Bush driving at 40 mph.

 

[cvalue13]

learn your history.

Sorry to dogleg the thread but a little assist…. so many people talk about a 500mi range CT as though it’s gospel, and I haven’t followed closely enough to know what it’s based on (and google is now swamped with news of the semi’s 500mi range)

I take it that at some point Musk has “promised” that at least one CT will have a 500+ min range, and folks are hopeful that at least the tri if not quad will be it?

Official Cybertruck reveal night Nov 2019 and official Cybertruck reservations (2019 - 2021).

Tri Motor AWD range 500mi+, payload 3,500lbs, towing 14,000lbs, price $69,900

thanks

The 500 mile range is still listed on the site Today.

thanks

 

[Crissa]

I’m with the OP on this. Not the specific numbers here, but with my Model Y I feel a bit cramped with the current ~300 mile range. If the truck dropped down to even 275 it would start to get more frustrating. Consider for a moment you only get to use ~70% of the actual range (10% buffer on the bottom, 20% charging), a 275 mile vehicle is really about 195 miles useful. If you push the edges of the charging network, that can get sketchy. I expect the network will be a lot bigger in a few years, but it’s hard to really say what it’ll look like in 5 years.

I upgraded to the tri motor because of range frustration (not anxiety, I’m rarely anxious about, but occasionally frustrated). If I were to buy the dual motor and range dropped significantly it would be frustrating.

Of course, charging points are being added all the time. I saw a new Supercharger going in at Tillamook, even. Across the street from the creamery.

-Crissa

 

[cvalue13]

Of course, charging points are being added all the time. I saw a new Supercharger going in at Tillamook, even. Across the street from the creamery.

-Crissa

and with the new tax credits for charge installations ….

 

[Ogre]

Of course, charging points are being added all the time. I saw a new Supercharger going in at Tillamook, even. Across the street from the creamery.

-Crissa

Note to self: Creamery and Crematorium are completely different things.

 

[TyPope]

I am struggling to adjust my way of thinking from the Ice world into the EV world. Please check my math on this. If we are comparing the two models of Cybertruck it would seem to make sense for an apples to apples comparison on longevity it would be logical to determine how many miles the vehicle will go before going below a set range rather than using % of range loss. Let's assume a truck is not that useful below 210 miles of range and so would be considered at end of life. For the Tri-motor with a beginning range of 500 using a 5% battery degradation per 100,000 miles that would give approximately 1,700,000 miles before hitting the 210 mile range threshold. With the Dual at a range of 300 that threshold would be hit at approximately 700,000. Please check my math. I just multiplied 500 times .95 17 times. It would seem the larger range makes the Tri a vastly better deal especially for high mileage people. Am I missing something?

... No. At least not to you or me... Driving 17,500 miles per year (more than the national average), 700,000 miles would last you 40 years. I've never kept a vehicle that long so the difference between a 700,000 mile vehicle and a 1,700,000 vehicle is irrelevant.

BONUS MATH!!!
The national average miles per year is 13,500 which means your dual version would last 51.85 years (700,000/13,500)and the quad (or tri-motor version that gets 500 miles of range) would last 125.92 years (1,700,000/13,500). You may have to reupholster the seats at some point...

That's fun.

 

[Tinker71]

Saying things like “People treating things __which were on the launch list__ as Gospel” Is rude and a quick way to end up on my block list.

Likewise calling people stans.

Look back at Teslas history. They generally hit launch promises. They shit all over dates but hit features.

Personally, I find it ironic that so many people are willing to call launch stats nonsense and make up their own prices then expect people to respect their assumptions as truth. Lots of people seem to have it in their head that launch day was some kind of concept car moment where Musk makes a bunch of promises they can’t deliver. People said that about the Model S also, likewise the Model 3 and every other model.

If you want to bitch about delays, flame on. If you want to bitch about features being missing… learn your history.

I would agree, but at launch I seriously doubt they had a working 500 mile range vehicle. They had a plan to get there but XYZ had to happen. I have zero doubt Tesla will get it done. It is all about time and price. Who knows maybe they absolutely need all the pieces of the battery day to come together to make the 500 mile range version. That was at least a 3 year plan......from Sept 2020 if I recall. Did XYZ happen IDK. It is all conjecture for us nobodies. No use getting upset unless someone is outright rude or can't support their argument.

 

[CyberGus]

...beginning range of 500 using a 5% battery degradation per 100,000 miles that would give approximately 1,700,000 miles before hitting the 210 mile range threshold...

The problem is not your math, it's your supposition.

Most battery degradation occurs from the early cycles, slowly tapering off over time. So using a factor of "5% per 100,000 miles" might make for a general estimate, but a very inaccurate result when extrapolated over ludicrous timeframes.

And yeah, I stand by the term "ludicrous". No one has gotten 700,000 miles out of a vehicle ever, let alone 1.7 million.

 

[cvalue13]

No one has gotten 700,000 miles out of a vehicle ever, let alone 1.7 million.

1.7MM is barely even half the world record

 

[Crissa]

And yeah, I stand by the term "ludicrous". No one has gotten 700,000 miles out of a vehicle ever, let alone 1.7 million.

https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/missions/voyager-2/in-depth/

It's gone over twelve billion miles. Granted, most of it coasting, but it's still running.

-Crissa

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