Was the Tri-motor at Launch Price a massively better deal than the Dual?

[Ogre]

I would agree, but at launch I seriously doubt they had a working 500 mile range vehicle. They had a plan to get there but XYZ had to happen. I have zero doubt Tesla will get it done. It is all about time and price. Who knows maybe they absolutely need all the pieces of the battery day to come together to make the 500 mile range version. That was at least a 3 year plan......from Sept 2020 if I recall. Did XYZ happen IDK. It is all conjecture for us nobodies. No use getting upset unless someone is outright rude or can't support their argument.

Getting the truck to do 500 miles isn’t a problem. They can absolutely stuff 200 kWh into the chassis and get that much range. Price also isn’t an issue, thee is a $20,000 price difference, even at 2018 battery pricing Tesla could have acquired 100 kWh for $13,500. Motors are less than $1000 each. Tesla could also bump the 500 mile truck $25k more than the 300 mile if there was some battery specific inflation to account for.

The big question is whether the 4680 cells are being produced in enough volume to make that viable. Tesla has said they won’t be cell constrained, but when they said it, I think they thought the ramp would be further along at this point.

If they can’t produce enough cells to make the top end truck, they may launch with the dual motor 300 mile truck instead. Scaling up production is their #1 priority. If they can’t source enough cells for scaling up the 500 mile truck, they will launch with the truck they can produce at scale at launch—the dual motor 300 mile version.

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[CyberGus]

https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/missions/voyager-2/in-depth/

It's gone over twelve billion miles. Granted, most of it coasting, but it's still running.

-Crissa

 

[Bill906]

Note to self: Creamery and Crematorium are completely different things.

My brain stumbled on that word and had to do a reread also.

 

[Crissa]

My brain stumbled on that word and had to do a reread also.

Wow, you guys' heads are somewhere morbid lately x-x

Tillamook, you know, where the cheese is from? I mean, they're a massive company now that crushed all the other locals but...

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Wow, you guys' heads are somewhere morbid lately x-x

Tillamook, you know, where the cheese is from? I mean, they're a massive company now that crushed all the other locals but...

-Crissa

Good to hear they are putting a SC in there, there is good riding nearby I hear. Also there is an aircraft museum. Need to get up there.

Hopefully the Creamery and the Crematorium are kept well separated.

 

[Tinker71]

Getting the truck to do 500 miles isn’t a problem. They can absolutely stuff 200 kWh into the chassis and get that much range. Price also isn’t an issue, thee is a $20,000 price difference, even at 2018 battery pricing Tesla could have acquired 100 kWh for $13,500. Motors are less than $1000 each. Tesla could also bump the 500 mile truck $25k more than the 300 mile if there was some battery specific inflation to account for.

The big question is whether the 4680 cells are being produced in enough volume to make that viable. Tesla has said they won’t be cell constrained, but when they said it, I think they thought the ramp would be further along at this point.

If they can’t produce enough cells to make the top end truck, they may launch with the dual motor 300 mile truck instead. Scaling up production is their #1 priority. If they can’t source enough cells for scaling up the 500 mile truck, they will launch with the truck they can produce at scale at launch—the dual motor 300 mile version.

I am still waiting to see if they double stack the CT. That is a another engineering feat to cool assemble etc.

The current standard range 4680 Y appears to have some fillers and voids. It will be interesting to see what the pack is rated for when they do long range or performance models with 4680s or if they have been sandbagging with the current pack rating.

 

[Ogre]

I’m not even sure they will need to double stack. The Cybertruck is much wider than the Y, much longer, and the sides will have the same size side impact areas as the Model Y. I think squeezing 3 times the pack size in without stacking will be possible.

But the semi will absolutely require stacking and they are launching that very soon, so clearly stacking isn’t a big problem either.

 

[rsr_yf#1]

How about this math? I'm rounding up but with a Dual Motor listed at $50K and the Tri at $70K. Isn't that 40% higher price. So, is it worth 40% more?
For me the massively better deal, was the Dual over the Single. Only 25% more, going from $40K to $50K. You go from an average 6.5sec 0-60 rear-wheel drive pickup. To an AWD, with 0-60 @ 4.5 sec. which would beat a Ford Raptor.

I think the price shouldn’t change that much especially for those who made the reservation before they change the price.my thought they should honor there listening price on the launch it back in 2019.

 

[charliemagpie]

One or the other will be made first. But for how long?

Does Tesla tie up production for 2 years doing one model?

If Casting is faster than other areas of the production process, it may well split into 2 models, Dual and Quad, within months.

Early orders will be satisfied at relatively the same time.


If it still exists, it would half the battery supply issue. But the purpose is primarily to fairly satisfy the customer base.

Quad only will deliver maximum profits earlier, but a product mix will not delay the total net for too long.

It's very possible.

 

[Ogre]

They will add a second model as quickly as possible.

We’re already getting 2 or 3 trims of the Model Y out of Berlin and 2 trims out of Texas. Diversity in production means if there is a shortage of cells they can produce shorter range trucks. If they have tons, they can increase production on the LR model. Likewise motors and other parts.

 

[nmeabrian]

I am struggling to adjust my way of thinking from the Ice world into the EV world. Please check my math on this. If we are comparing the two models of Cybertruck it would seem to make sense for an apples to apples comparison on longevity it would be logical to determine how many miles the vehicle will go before going below a set range rather than using % of range loss. Let's assume a truck is not that useful below 210 miles of range and so would be considered at end of life. For the Tri-motor with a beginning range of 500 using a 5% battery degradation per 100,000 miles that would give approximately 1,700,000 miles before hitting the 210 mile range threshold. With the Dual at a range of 300 that threshold would be hit at approximately 700,000. Please check my math. I just multiplied 500 times .95 17 times. It would seem the larger range makes the Tri a vastly better deal, especially for high-mileage people. Am I missing something?

by the time the battery has end-of-life. Replacement batteries will be significantly cheaper to replace. With much better power density and longer life with minimal loss or maybe no loss. So as much as your summation is very sound, I think the dual motor will be okay with the up-and-coming technology breakthroughs. I also ordered a tri-motor

 

[Baldey]

that people buying $100K+ futuretrucks aren’t the people that will will be holding onto them for even 100,000 miles?

futuretrucks become pasttrucks much quicker

I dunno, i plan to hold on to the three i have on order for at least a million miles each..

But yes, the tri motor is a much better deal (assuming it comes with a bigger battery, which i am 95% sure it will). Can tell you from my SR M3 experience, you wont complain about the extra range.

But no, degradation doesn't quite work like that. Once a battery drops below 70% capacity Tesla will limit power and make you take a service appt. You'll either need to service a module, or replace the whole pack if it drops below 70% capacity, it will never go below that.

 

[Baldey]

TRI is 500, we know that.

Nobody has confirmed how far the quad will go.

But I'll be a monkey's Uncle (Sorry Kelly, lol) if it is not at least 500 miles.

Which forums have you been reading? There is no quad on release.. Its just the dual and tri, this has been confirmed and re-confirmed in a billion different ways.. Also we dont know 500 miles at all... Im betting its over 350, but 350 is the only thing we "know" exists

 

[cvalue13]

But yes, the tri motor is a much better deal (assuming it comes with a bigger battery, which i am 95% sure it will).

bruh, we done been through this

 

[Gurule92]

Which forums have you been reading? There is no quad on release.. Its just the dual and tri, this has been confirmed and re-confirmed in a billion different ways.. Also we dont know 500 miles at all... Im betting its over 350, but 350 is the only thing we "know" exists

You're replying to very old posts lol

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