Welcome to 2023, The Year of the Cybertruck (Predictions?)

[Dids]

I think I get my truck by Sept. Dual Motor ~30,000 in line.

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[Old Pro]

Can you believe those LA Chargers!

 

[greggertruck]

I think I get my truck by Sept. Dual Motor ~30,000 in line.

You think the body pic was fake AND that you’ll have 30k cybers on the road this year?! Oof dude

 

[Ogre]

Place would be like an amusement park. Figure 5500 trucks produced daily at ramp level. Maybe more?

If 5% of people wanted to opt to pick up and your, that’s 275 people, probably +1’s also…. waltzing around the biggest secretive factory in the world. tours would hold up the production line.

I would hope we get a cool video inside at least.

Most people wouldn’t want to drive to Texas to pick up the truck. Likely only the ones dumb enough to post on a forum about them a year or more before they buy them.

They’ve done factory tours in Fremont so it’s not unpossible.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Place would be like an amusement park. Figure 5500 trucks produced daily at ramp level. Maybe more?

If 5% of people wanted to opt to pick up and your, that’s 275 people, probably +1’s also…. waltzing around the biggest secretive factory in the world. tours would hold up the production line.

I would hope we get a cool video inside at least.

Sign me up!

 

[majingkai]

Now all brands and battery manufacturers say that they can do 1000km battery or electric car, last year, Tesla's cybertruck test car interface was put 620 miles, Musk also said that Tesla could do 620 miles a year ago, now what!

 

[Ranulf]

Remember, plaid motor is light enough to be carried by one person.

 

[Ogre]

We were talking above about how many trucks we will see in 2023, and after looking at Model Y production, I think my 5,000 number is pretty defendable. Seems like 10,000 or even perhaps 15,000 is attainable, but I’m struggling to see how they get 20,000 out the door in 2023 unless the ramp is much quicker than the Model Y.

Texas Model Y production started in January. Tesla hit 10,000 Model Ys produced by June and 20,000 by end of October.

So…. 10 months to get the first 20,000 cars out the door. If we assume the same rate, we’d need production starting in early March to hit 20,000 trucks.

I think the Model Y ramp hit a lot of speed bumps so perhaps we’ll get spun up a bit faster. Fingers crossed we blow all these numbers away.

 

[CyberGus]

I predict Elon will use my Delorean to start Cybertruck deliveries last year

 

[Dids]

You think the body pic was fake AND that you’ll have 30k cybers on the road this year?! Oof dude

I do yes, and I also think more like 80k CT will be delivered this year.
The ramp for CT will be very rapid due to the shorter assembly line, it takes a lot of paint shop time for average car that goes away. They probably would need production to begin in May to make that possible.

 

[Dids]

We were talking above about how many trucks we will see in 2023, and after looking at Model Y production, I think my 5,000 number is pretty defendable. Seems like 10,000 or even perhaps 15,000 is attainable, but I’m struggling to see how they get 20,000 out the door in 2023 unless the ramp is much quicker than the Model Y.

Texas Model Y production started in January. Tesla hit 10,000 Model Ys produced by June and 20,000 by end of October.

So…. 10 months to get the first 20,000 cars out the door. If we assume the same rate, we’d need production starting in early March to hit 20,000 trucks.

I think the Model Y ramp hit a lot of speed bumps so perhaps we’ll get spun up a bit faster. Fingers crossed we blow all these numbers away.

I think model y ramp was slow.
It was produced early.
Tesla was battery constrained.
Tesla didn't have giga Texas factory/ space constrained.
It was their second mass production model, they took model 3 production hell and turned it into smooth ramp. Hopefully they got even better and CT will be a smooth more rapid ramp.

 

[cybguy]

I'm hopefully (but not confident) that Tesla may get a dozen or two Cybertrucks delivered before 2023 ends. My prediction is that 5000 Cybertrucks are in the hands of customers by the end of Q2 2024. Maybe 25,000 before 2025. Take those numbers with a grain of salt as I've been overly optimistic since placing my preorder. That evening, I actually thought there would be deliveries before 2023 started even if it was clear new battery cost and supply was always the limiting factor.

 

[Rutrow]

I highly doubt a tri-motor Cybertruck will get a clutch to disengage the rear motors like the Semi. It will also not have the same gearing and transaxle like the Semi. If anything they'd do it like the M3 and have an induction motor in the rear that can free-wheel, without the need of a clutch, and a PM in the front.

But my prediction still is the same, there will only be a quad CF wrapped motor version for 4WD, and the dual motor if ever, will just be two CF motors on the rear axle. These CF motors will be smaller and have a higher gearing to be optimised for the CT. As Monroe pointed out Tesla electric motors only cost $400, so 4x is only $1600, and smaller lighter ones cheaper than that, and can have an efficiency map that peaks at a lower load, meaning they can all be tuned to stay on and still be efficient at cruise.

As per the other Tesla performance models CT acceleration performance will be tyre traction limited, but not limited by motor performance under 60mph. They can all break traction over 40mph so more power doesn't help if you can't put it on the ground.

All CTs will have 4WS, and is not affected by how many motors it has at all.

First of all, I never mentioned clutching any motors. I pointed out that two motors can provide more than enough power for the CyberTruck. If 3 motors on the Semi can handle 82,000 lbs, there's no reason CyberTruck needs three.
All of your suggestions add cost, weight, and complexity, which are things that first principles demands be eliminated. If the best part is no part, then an unneeded third motor (much less a fourth) should be deleted. First principles resulted in the Semi changing from the launch announced quad-motor, down to the delivered edition tri-motor.
Carbon Fiber wrapped rotors are only needed if ultra high RPMs are called for, I don't see the CyberTruck as needing them. They make sense for Plaid and Roadster since they need both low end torque AND 200+ mph. There MAY be justification for carbon wrapped rotors for a top spec Dual Motor CyberTruck if ultra RPM is necessary for 14,000 lb towing (I don't think it is) but if the top CyberTruck does use three motors, there's no way that carbon fiber wrapped can be justified (aside from bragging points).

 

[JGaspar]

Seems increasingly likely we’ll see at least a few trucks roll off the line this year so I thought a thread where we make predictions about how this all plays out. My predictions are about just the Tesla stuff I think will happen that impacts the Cybertruck, but you can go more broad if you want.

I’ve deliberately stayed away from pricing guesses because they just end up in pointless debate.

• Gigapress assembly continues and it is completed and tossing off Cybertruck castings by end of Q1.
• 4680 ramp in Texas continues we finally see the 4680 Model Y added to the config page.
• Sometime around March - June we see the first of the beta trucks on the road. Likely at a Supercharger.
• First v4 Supercharger installations happen. Likely appearing at new locations rather than at existing chargers.
• V3 Superchargers get an upgrade to 300 or 350 kW.

• Handover party and first Cybertruck deliveries in early July — August to employees.
  • Full specs announced for the first 2 trims—AWD (dual) and LR (likely tri motor).
  • Either the Single Motor will be officially dropped or Tesla will say it’s coming later (2025 perhaps)
  • Quad motor gets renamed to Quad Plaid and gets pushed back to 2024. (See comments below)
• Cybertruck configuration page with pricing opens October — November and customer deliveries in November - December.
• Only 1 truck will be available in 2023. Likely the tri motor. Second trim will come in early-mid 2024.
• Tesla delivers 5,000 trucks before year end.

I’m probably wrong about the tri motor. That said, here’s my justification. Tesla really wants to hit that 500 mile range and the only way they hit that is by having a massive battery pack or by having an extremely efficient truck. The tri motor can use the same super efficient drivetrain as the Semi. If this happens, the tri motor truck becomes the “LR” truck leaving room for a performance/ plaid trim in the form of the quad motor.

This is based loosely on how the Model 3 launch played out, plus our understanding of current state of production.

Nice predictions ! This should be THE YEAR for you guys in America.
Do you have any rumors or predictions for the European market? Or you know if there is plans for the gigafactory in Berlin produce the cybertruck for Europe?
I have one of the first reservations for a two motor configuration i made back in November 2019...

 

[JBee]

First of all, I never mentioned clutching any motors. I pointed out that two motors can provide more than enough power for the CyberTruck. If 3 motors on the Semi can handle 82,000 lbs, there's no reason CyberTruck needs three.
All of your suggestions add cost, weight, and complexity, which are things that first principles demands be eliminated. If the best part is no part, then an unneeded third motor (much less a fourth) should be deleted. First principles resulted in the Semi changing from the launch announced quad-motor, down to the delivered edition tri-motor.
Carbon Fiber wrapped rotors are only needed if ultra high RPMs are called for, I don't see the CyberTruck as needing them. They make sense for Plaid and Roadster since they need both low end torque AND 200+ mph. There MAY be justification for carbon wrapped rotors for a top spec Dual Motor CyberTruck if ultra RPM is necessary for 14,000 lb towing (I don't think it is) but if the top CyberTruck does use three motors, there's no way that carbon fiber wrapped can be justified (aside from bragging points).

The CF rotors can be smaller (less material and cost) with the same power. EM already said the quad will be first, and that it will have torque vectoring, which is not possible with a dual motor 4WD. The CF wrap costs about $50, it's only a few ounces, and it's in the semi already too. As I pointed out previously, the problem is traction, not power, hence torque vectoring brings the acceleration times down, so you need more motors for that.

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