Welcome to 2023, The Year of the Cybertruck (Predictions?)

[JBee]

Really?!?

Audi engineers will be disappointed to learn that their Audi-Quattro isn't capable of torque vectoring since it has only one engine. 

The differential gearbox to do so costs more than the extra motor and controller, and won't have as fine a control than with an electric motor.
Modern automatic gearboxes are more complex and cost more than ICE engines.

If it was that easy why does only the Plaid have it on the rear, where it has two motors? Btw where does all the extra cost come from if you split the rotor in half, and controller and wiring, but keep it all in the same housing?

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[JBee]

In an earlier post someone referenced EM saying the first trucks would be quad motors. Is this true? Why would we need 4 motors when the semi only needs three? Cost of four regular motors vs three plaid motors?

Not all electric motors are the same, so how many there are has nothing to do with how much power they have. A single plaid motor is nearly as powerful as a dual motor M3. Electric motors come in all shapes and sizes, and configurations. A dual motor M3/MY actually has two completely different motors (induction and Permanent Magnet) in the same car.

So any argument around "it doesn't need it" or because it's "cheaper" is just pure speculation based on kindergarden maths, (1+2 =3), without any regard for the actual engineering or mechanics behind the design, components used, or how it's manufactured.

Having two many different components actually adds cost in the manufacturing line, parts supply and assembly. So having one motor assembly for both the front and the rear actually makes more sense, then a 1, 2 and 3 motor version. For a RWD version you just don’t install the front motor assembly, and end up with 2 motor RWD. Especially now that they have proven and dialed in the CF design they are using on the semi.

It's important to note that the semi has a much larger gradient between acceleration of mass and displacing air at cruise speeds, meaning being able to decouple the highly geared two motors has a more substantial impact than it ever will on a CT with a 15th of the mass and a 4th or 5th of the aerodynamic frontal area and drag. Accordingly expect adding components to decouple drivetrains to have diminishing returns on lighter more aerodynamic vehicles which don't vary relative load as much.

 

[charliemagpie]

Tesla has gone from half to 2 million cars... from 1 refurbished to 4 factories within 4 years.

The company has been dealing with its foundations as well as its new products.

What are we talking about ?
New Factory
New Tooling
New Platform
New Batteries
New Training

Thats all !!!

One or Two or three months delay... we are just in the middle of something new.

 

[JBee]

The comparison is not quite fair as you are also adding the whole front drivetrain housing with motor, controller, differential, driveshafts, cooling etc. Whereas in comparison splitting a single motor in a single housing means you get rid of the differential and most of the rest stays the same. This two motor design is what I'd like to see in the CT:

 

[Ogre]

No dude. The annual investor day event is in person in Texas and they are discussing the "generation 3 platform". That's a new vehicle at some level.

Talking about the same thing here.

I think by the time they have this event they will have a better idea when Cybertruck production will begin and we’ll have a more exact date on that. Also likely they will talk about a handoff/ launch party for it.

Maybe some more deets.

 

[cal]

So it would not make sense to use (and Tesla never said they would) Plaid motors in the CT. Also Plaid motors have to be way more expensive than regular motors. But dual Plaid motors... naw good story to put the fear of god in the competition but probably not going to happen. Also not real if keeping it cheap to manufacture is as big a focus as they've indicated. I really don't care as long as they start actual production sometime soon.

 

[kdn]

No matter what number they produce. I would like to see 20,000 CT produced delivered to the states proportionately based on orders. That way they go across the country...what great advertising.

 

[JBee]

So it would not make sense to use (and Tesla never said they would) Plaid motors in the CT. Also Plaid motors have to be way more expensive than regular motors. But dual Plaid motors... naw good story to put the fear of god in the competition but probably not going to happen. Also not real if keeping it cheap to manufacture is as big a focus as they've indicated. I really don't care as long as they start actual production sometime soon.

As pointed out before the Plaid motors "just" have a CF wrap and different motor magnet rotor layouts to suit the high RPM and a higher gearing. The extra cost is minimal ~$50. It would also be quad Plaid motors, the MS already has 3x Plaid CF motors, and the CT will weigh more.

 

[kbolt]

I'm hopefully (but not confident) that Tesla may get a dozen or two Cybertrucks delivered before 2023 ends. My prediction is that 5000 Cybertrucks are in the hands of customers by the end of Q2 2024. Maybe 25,000 before 2025. Take those numbers with a grain of salt as I've been overly optimistic since placing my preorder. That evening, I actually thought there would be deliveries before 2023 started even if it was clear new battery cost and supply was always the limiting factor.

They can hand make at least one CT/ day. So any guesses at fewer than 365 are low.

 

[kbolt]

Did I miss some info from Elon on the pricing? The original pricing was between the 3 and Y. Now people are saying between Y and S? Is this fake news or did Elon/Tesla say something that would suggest increasing the CT pricing at a faster rate than 3 and Y?

 

[Ogre]

Did I miss some info from Elon on the pricing? The original pricing was between the 3 and Y. Now people are saying between Y and S? Is this fake news or did Elon/Tesla say something that would suggest increasing the CT pricing at a faster rate than 3 and Y?

People make sh… tuff up about pricing and pass it as fact.

Musk suggested prices are likely to change due to inflation. Anything else is murky. Some people took that to mean they are doubling the base price of the truck… some think it’ll triple.

 

[kbolt]

People make sh… tuff up about pricing and pass it as fact.

Musk suggested prices are likely to change due to inflation. Anything else is murky. Some people took that to mean they are doubling the base price of the truck… some think it’ll triple.

That's what I'm getting at. If they slot it between 3 and Y at release and those go up by 10% since reveal why would someone think the CT increases by 100-200%? I'm fine rolling with it if Elon or Tesla same something to the affect or if there is some logic that goes with it.

 

[Ogre]

That's what I'm getting at. If they slot it between 3 and Y at release and those go up by 10% since reveal why would someone think the CT increases by 100-200%? I'm fine rolling with it if Elon or Tesla same something to the affect or if there is some logic that goes with it.

Different reasons mostly depending on who you ask. What it boils down to seems to be some combination of:

• Inflation (Arguably legit for about a 20% increase).
• Some people think the original prices were just a huge mistake on Tesla’s part.
• Lots of comments about Tesla being greedy/ skimming profits from their huge wait list.
• The features and value seem too good to be true. (This is arguably true)
• They think there is a massive market for $80k - $100k trucks (This is where the whole thing falls apart IMO).

In the end, we just have to wait and see.

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