40,000 Production this year prediction

[moneyminder]

40K between ~Sept 30 and Dec 31 2023????

that seems … optimistic

would likely look like a ramp of, what, 3,000 in October, 10,000 in November, and 26,000 in December?

which would then even if plateaued put 2024 production at 312,000 units?

I think that “reader” is … too optimistic

As context, yesterdays Q&A on the point:

• Q: once CT is fully ramped in Austin what is the target production "we'll start production and handing over cars later this year, there will be an S-curve of production, and I guess we'll see what the demand is, we're likely to do a quarter million a year, maybe more, very much dependent on what the demand is like.”

Below is a a weekly estimate based on time they've had for parts creation, experience from other production lines, etc. So 40,000 is viable, but highly optimistic. 25K would be more likely.

9/22	9/29	10/6	10/13	10/20	10/27	11/3	11/10	11/17	11/24	12/1	12/8	12/15	12/22	12/29	1/5
500	950	1250	1600	2000	2200	2400	2600	2800	3000	3200	3000	3250	3500	3750	4000

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[Jhodgesatmb]

Yes, my comment was in relation to the 40k units in 2023 prediction. One hundred or so Cybertrucks aren't going to move the needle in that regard. Production won't really start until the delivery event in my opinion, in order to hit 40k by end of year it would have to be much sooner than that.

At one point in time I believed they might hit 50K this year but not now. What gives me pause in my negativity is the statement by Elon that they could deliver 250K CTs (and possibly more, up to 500K) in 2024. There is no way they can hit even 250K in the calendar year unless they are already able to produce 5,000 per week. In order to ramp to that kind of number they would have to have built at least 30K.

 

[BeastSlayer]

Below is a a weekly estimate based on time they've had for parts creation, experience from other production lines, etc. So 40,000 is viable, but highly optimistic. 25K would be more likely.

9/22	9/29	10/6	10/13	10/20	10/27	11/3	11/10	11/17	11/24	12/1	12/8	12/15	12/22	12/29	1/5
500	950	1250	1600	2000	2200	2400	2600	2800	3000	3200	3000	3250	3500	3750	4000

This is the most astute analysis so far.

Not even my or that "insider reader" opinionating.

Tyler at CNBC is still mentioning his tour of the factory floor yesterday.

I bet Musk has sworn him into secrecy, but I am waiting for him to slip and accidentally mention that Cybertruck is already running on assembly line.

He mentioned just now that Cybertruck manufacturing is totally different and unique. I am disappointed that nobody is teasing him with follow up question into further details.

 

[cvalue13]

The Q/A quote seems odd. "Very much dependent on what the demand is like?" Correct me if I am wrong (I know someone will! ) but don't they have at least 1 million pre-orders? Or more? Say 1.5M, that would still likely be at least 4 years at full production capacity even accounting for 1/3 of pre-orders cancelling.

Those pre-orders mean very little. It's $100 refundable based on pricing that Elon already said wouldn't be the same.

If the price is much higher, range/performance/towing much lower, etc than they planned it could result in Model S/X-like demand until they get things figured out.

Those preorders were taken globally, and only US / North America is getting access anytime soon.

Those preorders were for prior pricing, and may be changing (unlikely to go down).

Those preorders were at a time with auto financing rates were, what, 1/3 of present?

lots of reasons to not rely on $100 deposits from 4 years ago as basis for demand predictions

 

[Sousray]

I placed my order within the first min of the opening for orders. I am very low on the list. I expect to receive mine within the next few months after the employees get theirs. I can't wait. I hope that I will get invited to pick mine up at the plant since I live close to it. I also hope they do some type of ceremony or opening. Very Excited.

 

[CyberGus]

 

[cvalue13]

What gives me pause in my negativity is the statement by Elon that they could deliver 250K CTs (and possibly more, up to 500K) in 2024.

he didn’t say 2024

the question was what would be max production rate

neither the q or a was date-defined

 

[BeastSlayer]

I placed my order within the first min of the opening for orders. I am very low on the list. I expect to receive mine within the next few months after the employees get theirs. I can't wait. I hope that I will get invited to pick mine up at the plant since I live close to it. I also hope they do some type of ceremony or opening. Very Excited.

I'm open for an invite!

I'll even pay for beer and 72-oz Texas steak.

 

[BeastSlayer]

lots of reasons to not rely on $100 deposits from 4 years ago as basis for demand predictions

Even with the 70% drop out rate, it will still be more than a year's production.

F150 Lightning had a drop-out of 50% (not sure of reliability of the number) after the reviews about towing, winter driving range issues and dealers' price gouging.

 

[BeastSlayer]

Have we lost count yet?

 

[uscbucsfan]

Below is a a weekly estimate based on time they've had for parts creation, experience from other production lines, etc. So 40,000 is viable, but highly optimistic. 25K would be more likely.

9/22	9/29	10/6	10/13	10/20	10/27	11/3	11/10	11/17	11/24	12/1	12/8	12/15	12/22	12/29	1/5
500	950	1250	1600	2000	2200	2400	2600	2800	3000	3200	3000	3250	3500	3750	4000

Wouldn't 3750 in a week be considered "mass production"?

Musk has said twice that I know of that mass production won't begin until sometime in 2024. Also

"There will be an S curve of production," . "So it'll be slow at first and then ramping up and I guess we'll see what the demand is like.

I think expecting 40k trucks being made in 2023 is insanely optimistic ( I think 25k is also extremely unlikely) and unless you think Elon is sandbagging on timelines (which he's debatably done once with the MY), it's even more unlikely.

 

[cvalue13]

F150 Lightning had a drop-out of 50% (not sure of reliability of the number) after the reviews about towing, winter driving range issues and dealers' price gouging.

I don’t think that number is correct, but anecdotal on my end as well

no informed buyer was dropping out due to towing - and CT will have nearly the exact same decrease in performance towing, which can be mitigated only by having a larger “fuel tank”

I think few informed buyersdropped out due to ‘winter performance’, which was more of an issue with first-time BEV buyers being unaware of the particularities of BEVs wrt temps

almost no one dealt with price gouging on reserved units (as opposed to dealer units) - and we on the Lightning forum would have heard about it

finally, onlookers have mistakenly made too much of seeing units “for sale” on dealer websites. They were unaware that the ford reservation system has a quirk where an reserved unit that is is between order and delivery automatically show up as being ‘for sale’ on the delivery dealership’s website

that said, there’s no doubt appetite for the Lightning cooled, but driven primarily by two things:

1. price increases (we’ll see where CT lands here), paired with

2. increases loan interest rates, which really strikes at the heart of affordability (and CT will be equally subject to this issue)

notably, lots of the FUD directed towards the Lightning are and will be equally directed at the CT (eg towing performance, affordability if only by interest rates, if not availability of low cost trims, first-time BEV buyers being unfamiliar with BEV quirks, etc.

so with some irony, the CT champions around here who direct FUD at the Lightning are unwittingly digging holes they themselves will be soon defending against

people should be more thoughtful about picking “teams“ so fervently, if their interest is in advancing the uptake of BEVs generally - especially in the truck segment

 

[uscbucsfan]

I think people are underestimating your interest rate point. It's going to take a ton of buyers off the table if rates are 7%, especially with any price increases and low value on trade-ins (especially on Teslas).

 

[Rutrow]

I wonder if I’ll be able to pick up at the factory once it does start delivering. Would be a fun road trip.

Are you hitching a ride to Austin? Trading in? Or are you expecting your FSD CyberTruck to follow you home? ?

 

[CyberGus]

I think people are underestimating your interest rate point. It's going to take a ton of buyers off the table if rates are 7%, especially with any price increases and low value on trade-ins (especially on Teslas).

For my one and only new-car purchase, I think I paid 12% and was happy to get it

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