40,000 Production this year prediction

[BeastSlayer]

all else being made equal, an ICEF150 with a 13 gallon tank, 32C, 75mph, etc., ALSO would only get 100 miles in those same conditions.

So in summary, in your world, you have to lower the denominator (comparator) to make your mistake of big-ticket purchase justifiable?

Asking for a friend, did it work on the wife? I might try it myself sometime.

And all these years, I thought that the reason for buying a new vehicle, specially if you are paying a premium for it, was it would be a lot better.

There goes that "not an educated buyer" again. They are plenty educated by now. Not a few mentioned that they sold or put out a post that their F150 Lightning is for sale.

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[cvalue13]

You've said this before, but there's a reason why there isn't a 13 gallon F150 option. The lowest is 23 gallons and you can get 36 gallons (gas or diesel...until recently).

Which is why the battery needs to be larger for many to justify the purchase.

Yep

that’s the actual and fair critique of BEV trucks on the market: the current state of battery size and technology means that they have comparatively small “fuel tanks” - and those effects are exacerbated given the drag profiles of trucks

the CT hopes to mitigate this by some combo of bigger battery/fuel tank and better drag profile

and industry will continue to narrow this gap as batter size and technology advances

but at the end of the day, no matter what, all trucks, ICE, BEV, or otherwise will continue to experience significant range loss when towing at high speeds, as a matter of basic physics

Which is a whole different thing from the way that anti-BEC crowd tries to frame it: basically, there’s something magically inferior about BEV technologies which mean they can’t tow as far.

it’s BS when the anti-BEV crowd says it, and it’s BS when the pro-BEV manufacturer [X] crowd says it about BEV manufacturer [Y]

 

[uscbucsfan]

Yep

that’s the actual and fair critique of BEV trucks on the market: the current state of battery size and technology means that they have comparatively small “fuel tanks” - and those effects are exacerbated given the drag profiles of trucks

the CT hopes to mitigate this by some combo of bigger battery/fuel tank and better drag profile

and industry will continue to narrow this gap as batter size and technology advances

but at the end of the day, no matter what, all trucks, ICE, BEV, or otherwise will continue to experience significant range loss when towing at high speeds, as a matter of basic physics

Which is a whole different thing from the way that anti-BEC crowd tries to frame it: basically, there’s something magically inferior about BEV technologies which mean they can’t tow as far.

it’s BS when the anti-BEV crowd says it, and it’s BS when the pro-BEV manufacturer [X] crowd says it about BEV manufacturer [Y]

I appreciate the depth of all of your posts.

 

[cvalue13]

Asking for a friend, did it work on the wife? I might try it myself sometime.

fantastic

I don’t tow anymore, so the small tank wasn’t a factor. I live in central Texas where it’s basically never cold, so the cold weather effects weren’t a factor. I don’t have a material commute or do regular road trips, so that lack of charging infrastructure wasn’t a factor. I have 21KW of solar that basically pays for my vehicle “fuel,” so it only increases my ROI on the already sunk solar costs

the purchase made perfect sense for my use case, and it’s a fantastic truck

but as far as I’m concerned, someone living in Michigan that bought a BEV truck to regularly tow an RV made a poor buying decision

and I expect the same will be directionally true of the CT, even if less so

 

[BeastSlayer]

fantastic

I don’t tow anymore, so the small tank wasn’t a factor. I live in central Texas where it’s basically never cold, so the cold weather effects weren’t a factor. I don’t have a material commute or do regular road trips, so that lack of charging infrastructure wasn’t a factor. I have 21KW of solar that basically pays for my vehicle “fuel,” so it only increases my ROI on the already sunk solar costs

the purchase made perfect sense for my use case, and it’s a fantastic truck

but as far as I’m concerned, someone living in Michigan that bought a BEV truck to regularly tow an RV made a poor buying decision

and I expect the same will be directionally true of the CT, even if less so

That's the more level perspective than accusing those who live towing in wintry locales of being uninformed buyer.

 

[cvalue13]

That's the more level perspective than accusing those who live towing in wintry locales of being uninformed buyer.

it’s a BEV vehicle, with a stated max range of 320mi by the EPA (which means at EPA test conditions, speeds, temps, etc.)

ANYONE who thought it could regularly tow more than 100mi with any material trailer at 75mph in cold weather, was an uninformed BEV buyer

plenty of people use it to tow far longer distances, easily, by merely observing the basic physics of towing with a small fuel tank

You tell me, then, what “informed” means

 

[BeastSlayer]

it’s a BEV vehicle, with a stated max range of 320mi by the EPA (which means at EPA test conditions, speeds, temps, etc.)

ANYONE who thought it could regularly tow more than 100mi with any material trailer at 75mph in cold weather, was an uninformed BEV buyer

plenty of people use it to tow far longer distances, easily, by merely observing the basic physics of towing with a small fuel tank

You tell me, then, what “informed” means

If you'll excuse me, if I am done with that "uninformed buyer" debate. I hate repeating myself -- and hate it more having people repeating themselves as if others are 2-year old.

It's their (and my) money. They buy based on truck's specs, realized they made a mistake, they sell it and post a review for their good heart so other won't make the same mistake. I will be the last to deride them as "uninformed buyer". In fact, I am grateful to them that I did not make the same mistake even if Ford kept on nagging me for the nth time to do my order.

 

[cvalue13]

They buy based on truck's specs, realized they made a mistake, they sell it and post a review for their good heart so other won't make the same mistake.

sounds like we’re in violent agreement

 

[BeastSlayer]

sounds like we’re in violent agreement

This is where I say, you can now stop punching yourself.

 

[cvalue13]

This is where I say, you can now stop punching yourself.

funny, seemed like a 2-way discussion

ultimately only to agree that "they thought they understood the specs, but made a mistake" and are "educated now"

and when the anti-BEV truck crowd bellows "BEV's can't tow" I'll repeat the same discussion, because it's important to the understanding and proliferation of BEV trucks. they tow exactly as far same as any truck with a [13[ gallon fuel tank can, but with far better qualities otherwise - and battery tech / tank size is improving every day

and when the pro-BEV crowd parrots the same, uninformed, quips about BEV trucks, I'll repeat it

because internet

 

[BeastSlayer]

funny, seemed like a 2-way discussion

ultimately only to agree that "they thought they understood the specs, but made a mistake" and are "educated now"

and when the anti-BEV truck crowd bellows "BEV's can't tow" I'll repeat the same discussion, because it's important to the understanding and proliferation of BEV trucks. they tow exactly as far same as any truck with a [13[ gallon fuel tank can, but with far better qualities otherwise - and battery tech / tank size is improving every day

and when the pro-BEV crowd parrots the same, uninformed, quips about BEV trucks, I'll repeat it

because internet

Dude, maybe you've not noticed this yet and it's my duty to point this to you.

I'm not pro ICE, but you are unfairly loading the dice against the ICE trucks.

I don't know what world you live but there is no such thing as a truck with 13-gallon tank.

There is even an apple-to-apple comparison, if you care to be rational and honest. It's Ford's own gas-engine F150 vs the Lightning. And it has a 26 gallon tank at the minimum with 25 mpg down to average 16 mpg towing. Do the math, that's just 36% drop, not the 70% drop in range for their Lightning. Let's not even start when it's winter -- towing or not.

I swear, I'm tired -- and I'm done on this "uninformed buyer" subject. We have beaten this particular to death and resurrection.

 

[cvalue13]

I swear, I'm tired -- and I'm done on this "uninformed buyer" subject.

he says, while repeatedly engaging

I don't know what world you live but there is no such thing as a truck with 13-gallon tank.

No, but not so long ago there were "real" trucks with 16 gallon tanks and carbureted V8s that drank like sailors if you attempted to tow at 75mph.

And tomorrow, if you wanted, you could put a total of 12.8 gallons of fuel in an ICE F150 tank and have the exact same max range in that ICE F150 as there is in a fully charged Lightning.

There is even an apple-to-apple comparison, if you care to be rational. It's Ford's own gas-engine F150. And it has a 26 gallon tank at the minimum with 25 mpg down to average 16 mpg towing. Do the math, that's just 36% drop, not the 70% drop in range for their Lightning. Let's not even start when it's winter -- towing or not.

now i better understand... that you still aren't understanding

that 16mpg towing? is measured as of and under certain speeds and conditions. specifically, a relatively low speed (averaging at or less than 55mph), and warm temperatures, etc., etc., etc.

take that ICE F150 up to a sustained 75mph in 30 degree temps, and you'll be towing in the 10mpg range. do it with underinflated tires, lower. do it in a headwind, even lower. do it in dry air, even lower. do it at sea level, even lower. do it with a trailer that has worse aerodynamics than the one used in the test, even lower.

ICE, or BEV

WHO HERE TOWS WITH A DIESEL TRUCK AND WANTS TO REPORT THEIR RANGE HIT IF TOWING AN RV AT 75MPH IN 30 DEGREE TEMPS?1?! @SolarWizard ?

but as for "MISTAKEN" buyers of the Lighting, how about I just cite the first two articles I find that understand fuel economy/range and towing, available in 2021 to an aspiring buyer with only a moment on googling:

CAR and DRIVER, published MAY 19, 2021

We Bet F-150 Lightning's Range Is under 100 Miles when Towing at the Max​

Ford promises EPA ratings of 230 and 300 miles, but towing and hauling near the claimed 10,000-pound maximum is going to seriously cut into those figures.​

​

Ford is claiming that the range figures for its electric pickup will come in at 230 miles and 300 miles, depending on whether the standard-range (which we estimate can hold 115.0 kWh) or extended-range battery pack (150.0 kWh, same caveat) is beneath the bed. Those are EPA predictions, specifically EPA combined figures, in lightly loaded conditions...​

​

In our highway range testing, which we conduct at a steady 75 mph, we typically see a range number that's about 20 percent below the EPA figure. Using that same bogey, which is probably generous in the case of a full-size pickup, would put the Lightning in the 180-to-240-mile zone for what you might achieve on a road trip...​

​

Applying these results to the F-150 means that towing a modest trailer would put the highway range at roughly 100 to 125 miles, depending on the pack. Towing anywhere near the 10,000-pound maximum rating on XLT and Lariat models (with the maximum trailer tow package and extended-range battery) at highway speeds, we believe you'd be hard pressed to exceed double-digit miles. We'd take that bet, in fact.​

​

INSIDE EV'S, published July 25, 2021

Learn The Truth About EV Range And Towing: How Far Can You Go?​

​

There's no way to put a finger on precisely how much range your electric car will travel on a single charge, but you can get a pretty close idea. The EPA's estimated range is an excellent starting point, though we've proven time and time again that it's not necessarily accurate based on each individual's driving habits, travel routes, etc. The specific EV you own also plays a role in how accurate the EPA estimate tends to be, which is covered in detail in the video.​

​

You can consult multiple sources for actual real-world range tests. At InsideEVs, we drive every EV at a constant 70 mph until the battery dies. This lets you compare every electric car we've tested, and also see how our tests compare to EPA estimates. Still, factors such as weather – especially temperature and wind – as well as terrain, uphill and downhill travel, traffic, regenerative braking, and many other factors will impact your actual range.​

​

With all of that said, there's arguably nothing that may impact your EV's range as much as towing. While towing also affects the range and fuel economy of gas-powered vehicles, owners don't seem to pay nearly as much attention. When their vehicle gets low on gas, they simply fill up and proceed. With EVs, however, range is something many people are constantly aware of, and this is especially true if they're pulling a heavy load.​

​

YouTube influencer Two Bit da Vinci is aware that towing in an EV can be complicated, and estimating how much range to expect isn't easy. For this reason, he decided to build a model to help people understand the concepts and get an idea of range loss while towing.​

that video above, watch it through, but the towing discussion begins at 10 min mark.

it dives into the details of range reduction generally, as well as towing specifically, which I for brevity gloss over with my "13 gal tank" equivocation. and the reason this gloss is useful, is that it compares a standard: total expected range vs % of range reduced.

put differently:

• the Lightning in optimal EPA conditions (speed, temp, etc.) has a max range of 320mi
• the ICE F150 with 25mpg EPA rating, to travel that same 320 miles, requires 12.8 gallons of fuel

So, the Lightning's 320mi max range is equivalent to an ICE F150 with only 12.8 gallons of fuel in the tank, if both are at identical optimal EPA conditions

Drag increases by V2, so increasing from the EPA average of 48mph testing conditions to, e.g., 75mph results in an expected decrease of nearly 3.5X as much drag, on both vehicles, with a resulting plummet in range on both vehicles.

Etc., etc., etc.

 

[TyPope]

TLDR: Read the Red.

My personal F-350, I pulled 15,000 across country a few times (moves from base to base). I would get about 12-13 mpg towing. Sometimes down to 10. We didn't go slow. 30+ gallons made sure we could get 300-400 miles per tank.

Conversely, my current F150 2.7L Ecoboost struggled with my camper that was right at 7,000#. It was about 180 miles before I was sweating to find a gas station (23 gallon tank)... it absolutely sucked at getting good gas mileage when towing.

Physics is the same for ICE and BEVs.
To move a load a distance takes the same energy regardless of source.

approximately 33.7KwH of energy per gallon of gas means my truck would start with the equivalent of an 1,011KwH battery pack.

Efficiencies in drivetrain helps BEVs but that whole gasoline equivalent is why BEVs will not be as capable as a truck with a full tank unless it has one hell of a big battery. I love the CT but I'm not expecting much

Physics of towing

A 100KwH battery has 100 KwH energy
One gallon of gas has about 33.7 KwH energy
Cybertruck with 200 KwH battery will have 200 KwH energy.
F-150 with 36 gallons of gas has 1,213 KwH energy

End, Even though an F150 is inefficient, it can tow max weight twice as far as a Cybertruck with a 200 KwH battery (and we aren't even sure it'll get a battery that big... more likely 150 KwH which would be twice a Model Y pack... 200 KwH would be twice a Model S pack but since those are much lower in production rate, it would seem Tesla will be able to make the Model Y packs much faster and thus, will be able to doublestack that pack into a Cybertruck Pack.

150 KwH @ 300W/mile = 500 miles of range. Not saying this will be the battery size for sure, but I'd argue it over a beer.


The three main forces against you when towing a 7,000# trailer at 65mph:

Aero = 1/2 (0.002377) (80.667)^2 (0.4) (40) = 123.74 Ft Pounds, or (123.74)(0.001989) = 24.61 KwH
That's (0.5) x (coefficient of air times velocity in feet squared) x (drag coefficient) x (surface area of entire system) ---- surface area is if you looked at the CT and trailer head on and figured the size hole it would punch through a wall as it drove through...

Rolling resistance =Total weight x 0.015 = 13,500(0.015)(0.001989) = 40.27 KwH
That is (weight) x (coefficient of rolling resistance of a tire on pavement)

Gravity: 0 KwH (only comes into effect when traveling UP HILL on average meaning your ending point is higher than your starting point and for this example, it isn't.)

Taking the math above and add those three forces together and you get a requirement of 64.88 KwH to tow a 7,000 pound trailer 100 miles at 65 mph. This means we should be able to haul a 7,000# trailer 231 miles with a 150 Kwh battery pack in the CT (which happens to be the same approximate size of a double-stacked Model Y battery pack that I'm guessing the CT will have since Tesla already makes batteries in that configuration less the stacking).

That's not a crap ton of miles and it isn't super far but my F-150 would only get 180 miles per tank. Granted, it takes less time to fill it up than it will probably take to charge up but "them's the breaks." Speaking of brakes (see what I did there?), 180 miles is about 3 hours of driving 65 mph and that's breaktime for me these days. LOL

 

[cvalue13]

Taking the math above and add those three forces together and you get a requirement of 64.88 KwH to tow a 7,000 pound trailer 100 miles at 65 mph.

Now do it for 75mph!

 

[SolarWizard]

WHO HERE TOWS WITH A DIESEL TRUCK AND WANTS TO REPORT THEIR RANGE HIT IF TOWING AN RV AT 75MPH IN 30 DEGREE TEMPS?1?! @SolarWizard ?

our youngest HD diesels are 2017 & older since they are utilized far less frequently. Primarily used for hauling excavators and bobcats fitted with specialized piling drivers for ground mounted arrays. mpg for them floats in the 12 mpg range for the Cummins powered Rams and 10mpg for the Powerstroke Fords since they are essentially always towing and lots of idling on site. unladen they run in the 17-18 range but thats so infrequent its hard to have confidence in those numbers.
I don’t believe 30* makes much difference to an ice truck in terms of ambient air, but as the temperature decreases, so does air density. The thing that affects mpg to my fleet when its cold outside is the propensity for precipitation to accompany the cold and the amount of idle hours cause the guys are freezing.

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