40,000 Production this year prediction

[BeastSlayer]

@cvalue13 - I read your kilometric cross-post too. I am glad you referenced F150 Lightning forum. I am there and read all the posts and feedback of first owners. And yeah, tons of good and also bad reviews. The deal-breaker for me was when an owner, not isolated as others who also had a YouTube video, saw their range drop to the dreadful 100 miles -- and the charts on how range is dropping like a rock in adverse driving conditions while towing, going uphill and the worst, doing it in freezing (32C) weather.

I can't be as simpler than this. I originally intended for the F150 Lightning to be doing all of the above. And my benchmark of performance is my 4runner.

Sadly, it won't even be near it while my 4runner has lower comparative number of horses under it's hood.

I can't be accused of bashing Ford and elevating Teslas. I am stockholder of both -- and both of these portfolio are swimming in the sea of red ink.

And yes, the evil and criminal BEV for me should be on the way out pronto, the quicker the better.

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[Rutrow]

He's been wrong before but not in the direction most on here seem to be saying. The Model Y was supposed to be delivered by the Fall of 2020 yet my MY VIN is over 14,000 and we got ours on June 20th.
Tesla surprises everyone by delivering the Model Y ahead of schedule | Ars Technica

Aside from Model Y, has Tesla ever beat a deadline?

 

[BeastSlayer]

Aside from Model Y, has Tesla ever beat a deadline?

I can guess one cause. Elon is sleeping on the factory floor and that's a huge distraction.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Aside from Model Y, has Tesla ever beat a deadline?

Not even beat...met, but I doubt it. Elon jokes about it all of the time in interviews. He's aware that his timelines are terrible and some don't ever come to fruition.

 

[TyPope]

Aside from Model Y, has Tesla ever beat a deadline?

I don't think so. But, they are trending in the right direction. One new vehicle startup in a row ahead of schedule.

One in a row! Let's make it two in a row!

 

[TyPope]

Not even beat...met, but I doubt it. Elon jokes about it all of the time in interviews. He's aware that his timelines are terrible and some don't ever come to fruition.

Model Y went from "Next Fall" to "Next Summer" to actually being released in the Spring. They beat it soundly.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Model Y went from "Next Fall" to "Next Summer" to actually being released in the Spring. They beat it soundly.

It said "Aside from the Model Y".

 

[uscbucsfan]

I don't think so. But, they are trending in the right direction. One new vehicle startup in a row ahead of schedule.

One in a row! Let's make it two in a row!

Sure, if you ignore the Semi and also don't include the MY AWD, and Refresh S/X.

 

[cvalue13]

The deal-breaker for me was when an owner, not isolated as others who also had a YouTube video, saw their range drop to the dreadful 100 miles -- and the charts on how range is dropping like a rock in adverse driving conditions while towing, going uphill and the worst, doing it in freezing (32C) weather.

As I said in the Lightning forum: personally, I think that anyone who that the Lightning would tow more than 100mi in those conditions was delusional and not an educated buyer

all else being made equal, an ICEF150 with a 13 gallon tank, 32C, 75mph, etc., ALSO would only get 100 miles in those same conditions.

 

[uscbucsfan]

As I said in the Lightning forum: personally, I think that anyone who that the Lightning would tow more than 100mi in those conditions was delusional and not an educated buyer

all else being made equal, an ICEF150 with a 13 gallon tank, 32C, 75mph, etc., ALSO would only get 100 miles in those same conditions.

You've said this before, but there's a reason why there isn't a 13 gallon F150 option. The lowest is 23 gallons and you can get 36 gallons (gas or diesel...until recently).

Which is why the battery needs to be larger for many to justify the purchase.

 

[TyPope]

It said "Aside from the Model Y".

I know. Look back at the thread. I agreed with you about that. That last comment of mine was were you said about the model Y timeline " Not even beat...met, but I doubt it. " I was just saying that it seems they beat the estimated time to production by a lot.

However, I don't think they were producing all their normal parts at the GigaTexas facility by that point so they were, in fact, cheating a little by saying they were making the cars in Texas. In reality, they were probably just assembling them in Texas and making a lot of the parts in Freemont (the parts they don't normally contract out, I mean).

It's all good though. In a few short months, we'll see how the Cybertruck is coming along...

 

[uscbucsfan]

I know. Look back at the thread. I agreed with you about that. That last comment of mine was were you said about the model Y timeline " Not even beat...met, but I doubt it. " I was just saying that it seems they beat the estimated time to production by a lot.

However, I don't think they were producing all their normal parts at the GigaTexas facility by that point so they were, in fact, cheating a little by saying they were making the cars in Texas. In reality, they were probably just assembling them in Texas and making a lot of the parts in Freemont (the parts they don't normally contract out, I mean).

It's all good though. In a few short months, we'll see how the Cybertruck is coming along...

You misread it.

Aside from the Model Y they not only haven't beat a timeline, but haven't met one either is what I said.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

A few things;

1. The original MY was not a complete redesign in manufacturing or design. It shares 75% of the components of the M3.
2. Isn't that the only thing Tesla has been on time for? Model S/X refresh, Semi, MY AWD, M3, etc were all terribly behind schedule.
3. Elon has already said this would be a slow ramp (multiple times) and mass production won't begin until sometime in 2024. This is something that no one has done before and new techniques are being used and altered.
4. You mentioned the MY AWD LONG timeline and point to batteries. The 4680 still aren't ready and Elon didn't say there was a timeline for them to achieve the density/yields they hoped. He said it's really hard.

50,000 is crazy...0 chance in that. As I said before, I don't think there's much of a chance of 25,000.

I'm not sure if people just ignore what Tesla/Elon says, the timeline we've already had, etc. because they want it so bad, but all indications point to the CT being produced in VERY small quantities until sometime next year.

You make some good points but in the end it is Elon’s statements that are driving this discussion, and both he and his team have said that production will hit 250+K in 2024. We have to somehow guess what kind of slow ramp gets us from zero CTs produced to 5,000+ CTs produced per week, and there is no data. I do not know how to square the two, seemingly at odds, statements, but he/they have said both types of statements on multiple occasions: it is hair-pulling worthy :-(

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I know. Look back at the thread. I agreed with you about that. That last comment of mine was were you said about the model Y timeline " Not even beat...met, but I doubt it. " I was just saying that it seems they beat the estimated time to production by a lot.

However, I don't think they were producing all their normal parts at the GigaTexas facility by that point so they were, in fact, cheating a little by saying they were making the cars in Texas. In reality, they were probably just assembling them in Texas and making a lot of the parts in Freemont (the parts they don't normally contract out, I mean).

It's all good though. In a few short months, we'll see how the Cybertruck is coming along...

The Model Y started deliveries about 6 months early. I suspect it was pretty much a one-off.

there is no question that CT manufacturing is a brand new thing. They have to hang the bed off this massive casting, they have new drive units, they probably have a brand new suspension, steering, and braking system, they have to attach this new outer skin, they have a new way of wiring, etc.

 

[uscbucsfan]

You make some good points but in the end it is Elon’s statements that are driving this discussion, and both he and his team have said that production will hit 250+K in 2024. We have to somehow guess what kind of slow ramp gets us from zero CTs produced to 5,000+ CTs produced per week, and there is no data. I do not know how to square the two, seemingly at odds, statements, but he/they have said both types of statements on multiple occasions: it is hair-pulling worthy :-(

He did not say that.

Question: Once CT is fully ramped in Austin what is the target production

Elon Answer: "We'll start production and handing over cars later this year, there will be an S-curve of production, and I guess we'll see what the demand is, we're likely to do a quarter million a year, maybe more, very much dependent on what the demand is like. We don't just need to ramp up production but improve production cost efficiency which is a very hard thing. We'll make as much as people want, but like I said it's going to be hard to make the cost affordable. In the grand scheme of things it will be small, but still very cool"

Full ramp is a quarter million a year, maybe more...not "250k next year".

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