Price for CyberTruck ESTIMATE released by Farzad Mesbahi July 3rd, 2023

[Crimson_Fate]

Don't confuse a vehicles Base price with MSRP. As you add options to a vehicle the MSRP goes up. FSD will raise that MSRP.

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[Crissa]

He walks thru his "estimate" for the Cybertruck pricing. He is using his best guess-o-meter.

Cybertruck price for a 354 mile range model = $79,990

He makes other estimates on price if Tesla were to sell it at no profit. (Which I can't see Tesla doing. They don't need to do that).

This is ridiculous.

Why would Tesla increase their price by 60% and eliminate any possible options under the tax rebate while also not beating their competitions' price points?

This is why I don't watch these guys. They have no special insight, just a fancy camera and microphone. I have those.

-Crissa

PS:

Even if the TRI goes to $79.9k then people who had reserved the FSD for $7.5k will either loose the rebate or...

Software delivered later doesn't count towards the MSRP in the new tax rebate. Source: Tesla sales page. Rack up a new Model Y in the configurator, it's in the small print between buttons.

 

[intimidator]

This is ridiculous.

Why would Tesla increase their price by 60% and eliminate any possible options under the tax rebate while also not beating their competitions' price points?

This is why I don't watch these guys. They have no special insight, just a fancy camera and microphone. I have those.

-Crissa

PS:

Software delivered later doesn't count towards the MSRP in the new tax rebate. Source: Tesla sales page. Rack up a new Model Y in the configurator, it's in the small print between buttons.

I get it. Some people want to cling to the fantasy of a $59,000 Cybertruck.

Sigh.

 

[intimidator]

I see 2 major problems with the above. The tri-motor was at 80k before and with the other options both out already and not yet out in BEV pickups, I really doubt they could sell 300k of them at that price. Ford has already reached offering lease and loan rate incentives on the Mach-e and F150 lightning. I'm sure someone has the math done from the reservation sheet, but the overwhelming majority were for 60k and under models. For some people that difference isn't too big, but a fair number were looking at it as "Cheaper than a gas 4 door pickup" as a major reason for reserving one. With the way cost of living has gone for many people since the pre-order, I'm pretty certain a lot of the preorders will drop or possibly wait for cheaper versions of the CT. I'd take it at the 80k though as I can afford to. My reservation was for a dual with FSD, but I don't care about the price difference. I bought an audi e-tron to drive until the CT does make it out.

The other problem is that if it does work that way, they have a 300k production and burn through the preorder list for 2024, how many will actually sell in 2025? Ford sells about 750,000 F150s a year across trims. Chevy about 500,000. I very deeply doubt that even if they can pull that off for 2024, that they'd be able to sell another 300k cybertrucks in 2025. So they'd have the big ramp up and then they'd be closing down lines the following year.

My total guess is Tesla will deliver about 125,000 Cybertrucks in 2024.
Elon said the ramp would be slow.
Then I see 250,000 in 2025.

Purely guesses of course. But this is a totally new factory, building a totally new model, using totally new processes, with huge Gigapresses that Tesla has never ramped before, and using 4680 batteries that are still being sorted out.

 

[cvalue13]

Elon also said they only build S & X because they are sentimental. Seems unlikely they would spend half a decade designing a truck they don’t really want to push to mass production and adoption. Neither of which apply to S or X.

for what it’s worth, they spent the same amount of time on the Model X (prototype unveil 2012, delivery event 2016)

I don’t know what that has to do with anything otherwise, but the X and CT share a lot of history to date

 

[Dids]

I get it. Some people want to cling to the fantasy of a $59,000 Cybertruck.

Sigh.

It's not about clinging to anything. Things cost a certain amount to produce... there is an amount of steel, an amount of engineering cost, an amount of factory time and space. CT requires less of some things and more of other things. Tesla has predicted the cost and predicted a price. Yes some inflation has occured. But it's like 5% inflation, not 50%. And indeed the price of other tesla models is lower than 2019...So anyone that thinks the price is going up thinks tesla doesn't know what it is doing.... and yet they are able to price and grow the company by 50% yearly....

 

[cvalue13]

So anyone that thinks the price is going up thinks tesla doesn't know what it is doing

Tangent: had Telstra ever given prices at a prototype reveal before the CT?

I know they didn’t with X, but didn’t follow eg 3

 

[charliemagpie]

We have clearly stated CT price points .....in 2019.

We have travelled a pandemic and are in the middle of an inflation possible recession period.

Whilst its clear prices will go up, I think the higher end price points are more of a fancy than the lower one's.

 

[evazquezcu]

I would stop monetizing the videos of this guy, I have watch a couple early videos of him and his context has progressive from opinion to straight click bait

 

[newwave1331]

1.) We can not have a starting price of $70k for CT and still be a mass market vehicle. They said a 100kWh battery would be in the cyber truck in the last master plan released.

Basis for entry spec dual motor 300mi for $54,900-$59,900:
If we put a ~100kWh battery in a dual motor CT, it will get ~300miles. A F150 XLT 4x4 (ice) is about $56k. Tesla could price the configuration as low as $54,900. The ~$55k price tag is about the same as a MY-P and is the same price/mi of range as a base MY ($184/mi).

2.) A 600mi ev truck is a very limited market in the $100k neighborhood. Most use cases for a 600mi truck would be better fit by a diesel pickup at the moment. V4 superchargers with pull threw stalls are a much better solution.



3.) To keep production simple, they need to cut down the amount of configurations/parts. Dual and Tri motors had about 92% of the orders so the single motor 250mi did not interest many buyers. This makes the dual motor 300mi the new base model. I'm in favor of a quad motor vs tri motor. Tesla has an cost advantage over other manufactures due to making their own motors. Quad motor gives more control over the vehicle through software updates and on/offroad performance.

There could be a large battery pack option for either motor configuration. I read a lot of posts asking for 500mi but didn't need the speed or capacity levels of the tri motor. I don't believe this large battery pack needs to come in under the $80k rebate limit. That would incentivize people carrying larger packs than they need. Rapid V4 supercharger deployment should minimize the need for large packs for most CT buyers and give them a greater value. The following configurations and price points should be competitive against all EV or ICE pickups while not throwing off Tesla's model 3/y price per mile of range.

Dual Motor 300mi 101.4kWh (small) $54,900 -> $47,400
Dual Motor 385mi 135.2kWh (medium) $64,900 -> $57,400
Quad Motor 357mi 135.2kWh (medium) $74,900 -> $67,400
Dual Motor 518mi 202.9kWh (large) $84,900
Quad Motor 507mi 202.9kWh (large) $94,900

 

[Deleted member 17810]

1.) We can not have a starting price of $70k for CT and still be a mass market vehicle. They said a 100kWh battery would be in the cyber truck in the last master plan released.

Basis for entry spec dual motor 300mi for $54,900-$59,900:
If we put a ~100kWh battery in a dual motor CT, it will get ~300miles. A F150 XLT 4x4 (ice) is about $56k. Tesla could price the configuration as low as $54,900. The ~$55k price tag is about the same as a MY-P and is the same price/mi of range as a base MY ($184/mi).

2.) A 600mi ev truck is a very limited market in the $100k neighborhood. Most use cases for a 600mi truck would be better fit by a diesel pickup at the moment. V4 superchargers with pull threw stalls are a much better solution.



3.) To keep production simple, they need to cut down the amount of configurations/parts. Dual and Tri motors had about 92% of the orders so the single motor 250mi did not interest many buyers. This makes the dual motor 300mi the new base model. I'm in favor of a quad motor vs tri motor. Tesla has an cost advantage over other manufactures due to making their own motors. Quad motor gives more control over the vehicle through software updates and on/offroad performance.

There could be a large battery pack option for either motor configuration. I read a lot of posts asking for 500mi but didn't need the speed or capacity levels of the tri motor. I don't believe this large battery pack needs to come in under the $80k rebate limit. That would incentivize people carrying larger packs than they need. Rapid V4 supercharger deployment should minimize the need for large packs for most CT buyers and give them a greater value. The following configurations and price points should be competitive against all EV or ICE pickups while not throwing off Tesla's model 3/y price per mile of range.

Dual Motor 300mi 101.4kWh (small) $54,900 -> $47,400
Dual Motor 385mi 135.2kWh (medium) $64,900 -> $57,400
Quad Motor 357mi 135.2kWh (medium) $74,900 -> $67,400
Dual Motor 518mi 202.9kWh (large) $84,900
Quad Motor 507mi 202.9kWh (large) $94,900

You're using market prices for battery packs.

Tesla has been planning for this for nearly a decade. It's why the other companies will never be able to keep up for at least ten years.

Teslas bottleneck for profit on the CT is going to be customers.

 

[Art O'Connor]

I heard they will not make the tri motor, but a quad motor instead. Elon could sell out the next two years of production at $100K, if CT is as good as the hype. My CT will replace my Siverado, which is a work truck. I need to tow 14,000 lbs, go off-road, and have lots of traction. I live in snow country. My CT will not be a garage queen. I would pay $100K for quad motors, 500 miles of range and 14,000 lbs towing.

 

[CyberGus]

I heard they will not make the tri motor, but a quad motor instead.

Elon Tweeted about the 4WD variant in back in '22 but nothing since. No official source has confirmed the 4WD, nor withdrawn any of the announced variants.

 

[newwave1331]

You're using market prices for battery packs.

Tesla has been planning for this for nearly a decade. It's why the other companies will never be able to keep up for at least ten years.

Teslas bottleneck for profit on the CT is going to be customers.

I was using price per mile of range near the model Y as a guideline. If it was price per kWh, my pricing is below a model 3. I doubt their will be a shortage of customers at $55-60k. I agree that the large packs are priced high and will only be sensible for people that NEED the 500+ miles. At faster charging rates, not many ppl should need 500 miles of range.

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