Conversion Rate through December 2026 and first 550,000 units -- what's your guesstimate?

[Tinker71]

you need a followup poll .. do YOU.. meaning the person taking the poll intend on buying any and all reservations you have for a CT... use the same pricing structure you used here... I suspect the do you plan on buying poll would be closer to 80%

A poll from CTOC member would likely be biased. Multiple orders but only fulfilling one would really hurt total take rate.

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[Sirfun]

A poll from CTOC member would likely be biased. Multiple orders but only fulfilling one would really hurt total take rate.

That had a factor in my choice of 60%. Because there are numerous individuals who made multiple reservations for fleets of robotaxis and other examples. I think that will cause lots of cancelations.

 

[Greshnab]

A poll from CTOC member would likely be biased. Multiple orders but only fulfilling one would really hurt total take rate.

all polls are biased in some way.. it doesn't make them any less useful or fun.

 

[CyberGus]

all polls are biased in some way.. it doesn't make them any less useful or fun.

nothing could make them less useful or fun

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

I would have to see what the quad has that the tri doesn't and the price. However for me .. probably not.. 500 mile range advertised for the 3 motor is more than enough to meet my needs.. and a faster 0-60 isn't that big a deal to me.. what the tri had was PLENTY... i simply don't need more power and more range.. so the tri motor is fine... in point of fact if the 2 motor had 500 miles of range i might go for that one.

Got a feeling the QUAD might surprise almost everyone. Let's see if that is a thing! It will be interesting when the 'Configurator' goes live and reservation holders lock in their CT. Agreed, the 'DUEL' Motor with good range will be a popular choice, particularly at a price point ~$59K

 

[Tinker71]

Slightly less than 60% so far. Anybody know conversion rates for Rivian or Lightning $100 reservations? If true my 600 k rez just became 360 k and moved up a whole year. Ugh double payments for me with my 3 year lease.

 

[HaulingAss]

I would have to see what the quad has that the tri doesn't and the price. However for me .. probably not.. 500 mile range advertised for the 3 motor is more than enough to meet my needs.. and a faster 0-60 isn't that big a deal to me.. what the tri had was PLENTY... i simply don't need more power and more range.. so the tri motor is fine... in point of fact if the 2 motor had 500 miles of range i might go for that one.

The point of the quad motor is driving dynamics, both on-road and off-road. Not power or speed. And you eliminate 2 open differentials over the dual motor for possibly a little better efficiency on the highway. The question is, will the quad motor put the front or back motors to sleep when there is low demand for power?

 

[charliemagpie]

i will get the Plaid with sugar on it, if it helps to get onto a ship faster.

 

[ÆCIII]

I think a lot depends on what is clarified in an Updated Reveal, along with other life and economic factors. It's been a long time since the original reveal, and much has changed. Reservation holder financial situations have obviously changed since 2019, and many likely will not have the same buying power today as they did in 2020, or shortly after when they were expecting the Cybertruck to be available.

Of course Tesla has not sat on it's laurels during these delays, but instead has continued changing and refining the CT design. Yet the realities of a more expensive price and the reduced buying power of consumers will be a factor.

Also about half U.S. states have Vehicle Property Taxes, with Virginia and Mississippi being the highest in the nation at 3.96% and 3.50% which is about six times the rate charged in California. If we use your estimated Tri-Motor price, purchasing a Cybertruck for $79,420 in Virginia would incur $3145.03 Vehicle Property Taxes in the first year alone, in addition to the 4.15% Sales Tax at purchase which would be $3295.93. Add to this the continual Vehicle Property Tax charged each year and even with standard depreciation Virginia would collect over $10,500 in property taxes on a Cybertruck for the first five years, and that is on top of the initial Sales Tax of $3295. But that's kind of standard for many states so I'm not dwelling as much on that. The oppressively high Vehicle Property Taxes in Virginia certainly cancel out any benefits of a federal Tax Credit and then some! These taxes also cancel out much potential savings that would be realized in reduced costs of ownership.

Buyers in some states must consider these factors, and with some states aiming to increase taxes even more, it would not be any surprise if buyers thought hard and then possibly canceled their CT reservation in states taxing high. Prior to 2019 these taxes were already bad enough, but when they are considered together with significantly reduced buying power as well, some people are just going to be unable pull the trigger on a purchase because in those states the government is simply taking way too much. It makes no sense to receive a Federal Tax Credit if you're just going to give all of it and more back to your state government!

Here is a site with Vehicle Property Tax information (click Vehicle Property Tax Ranking in the Table of Contents):
https://wallethub.com/edu/states-with-the-highest-and-lowest-property-taxes/11585

I noted the highest Vehicle Property tax state of Virginia as an example, and with the exception of Mississippi and a few others, many states have a much more reasonable tax rate that likely won't deter buyers as much.

Of course these taxes may not be a huge factor for overall conversion to (purchase) rates because of likely a smaller fraction of CT reservations being from buyers in these highest taxed states. But I thought it'd be a good time to point them out. But, the general buying power factors are affecting most everybody, and except for those who are crazy rich and not affected as much, many people are going to have a careful decision to make.

Prices will likely be up, buying power will be relatively down, but the CT quality and innovation will be likely superb, so everyone's going to have to re-evaluate and balance for themselves.

Because of these concerns, I'm leaning between 60% and 70%, but even in ideal better economic and tax situations my estimate would probably be 80%, which I think would be pretty good considering the CT's new design and departure from what people are accustomed to.

- ÆCIII

 

[SolarWizard]

I voted 40% and I consider that to be optimistic IF they come up with a way to curb flipping.
$100 refundable vs $80k truck is a going to be a bridge too far for most, even if the financing is attractive (and I have the super mega hookup on that for anyone curios about that as time draws near)

the same lender that does the bulk of my solar loans has helped a bunch of my friends get cars lately on my request. For example a Plaid Model S for 84 months @ a rate that is simply unavailable elsewhere just a week ago. My rep told me she could help some of my CT friends since I basically don’t shut up about it when we talk.

 

[Crissa]

The assumed prices are too high.

That will cut out half the performance model sales and half the standard model sales, along with nearly all of the base model sales.

It would be a disaster.

I would think they wouldn't break 50% with those assumptions.

Tesla's stock would crash.

It wouldn't be pretty.

I think that Tesla will choose better prices and also manage 70% conversion.

-Crissa

 

[Tinker71]

The assumed prices are too high.

That will cut out half the performance model sales and half the standard model sales, along with nearly all of the base model sales.

It would be a disaster.

I would think they wouldn't break 50% with those assumptions.

Tesla's stock would crash.

It wouldn't be pretty.

I think that Tesla will choose better prices and also manage 70% conversion.

-Crissa

Well the LR Y is still around $60 and doesn't have half the capabilities. I hope you are right tho.

 

[Tinker71]

I think a lot depends on what is clarified in an Updated Reveal, along with other life and economic factors. It's been a long time since the original reveal, and much has changed. Reservation holder financial situations have obviously changed since 2019, and many likely will not have the same buying power today as they did in 2020, or shortly after when they were expecting the Cybertruck to be available.

Of course Tesla has not sat on it's laurels during these delays, but instead has continued changing and refining the CT design. Yet the realities of a more expensive price and the reduced buying power of consumers will be a factor.

Also about half U.S. states have Vehicle Property Taxes, with Virginia and Mississippi being the highest in the nation at 3.96% and 3.50% which is about six times the rate charged in California. If we use your estimated Tri-Motor price, purchasing a Cybertruck for $79,420 in Virginia would incur $3145.03 Vehicle Property Taxes in the first year alone, in addition to the 4.15% Sales Tax at purchase which would be $3295.93. Add to this the continual Vehicle Property Tax charged each year and even with standard depreciation Virginia would collect over $10,500 in property taxes on a Cybertruck for the first five years, and that is on top of the initial Sales Tax of $3295. But that's kind of standard for many states so I'm not dwelling as much on that. The oppressively high Vehicle Property Taxes in Virginia certainly cancel out any benefits of a federal Tax Credit and then some! These taxes also cancel out much potential savings that would be realized in reduced costs of ownership.

Buyers in some states must consider these factors, and with some states aiming to increase taxes even more, it would not be any surprise if buyers thought hard and then possibly canceled their CT reservation in states taxing high. Prior to 2019 these taxes were already bad enough, but when they are considered together with significantly reduced buying power as well, some people are just going to be unable pull the trigger on a purchase because in those states the government is simply taking way too much. It makes no sense to receive a Federal Tax Credit if you're just going to give all of it and more back to your state government!

Here is a site with Vehicle Property Tax information (click Vehicle Property Tax Ranking in the Table of Contents):
https://wallethub.com/edu/states-with-the-highest-and-lowest-property-taxes/11585

I noted the highest Vehicle Property tax state of Virginia as an example, and with the exception of Mississippi and a few others, many states have a much more reasonable tax rate that likely won't deter buyers as much.

Of course these taxes may not be a huge factor for overall conversion to (purchase) rates because of likely a smaller fraction of CT reservations being from buyers in these highest taxed states. But I thought it'd be a good time to point them out. But, the general buying power factors are affecting most everybody, and except for those who are crazy rich and not affected as much, many people are going to have a careful decision to make.

Prices will likely be up, buying power will be relatively down, but the CT quality and innovation will be likely superb, so everyone's going to have to re-evaluate and balance for themselves.

Because of these concerns, I'm leaning between 60% and 70%, but even in ideal better economic and tax situations my estimate would probably be 80%, which I think would be pretty good considering the CT's new design and departure from what people are accustomed to.

- ÆCIII

Wow that would be a real deterrent to adopting any new tech. I prefer the ton mile tax with self reporting miles and occasional audits. The ton part to encourage light vehicles over the long term.

 

[Tinker71]

Well the LR Y is still around $60 and doesn't have half the capabilities. I hope you are right tho.

I will correct myself. The entry dual motor with 279 range is $48k. It will probably fall more. So maybe Tesla can hold the dual motor CT to $55k.

 

[Greshnab]

I will correct myself. The entry dual motor with 279 range is $48k. It will probably fall more. So maybe Tesla can hold the dual motor CT to $55k.

laughs i was about to say my Blue LR model Y was only 53k... and it would have been 52 if i was ok with white.. but that blue is so pretty 8)

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