350 mile range Quad Motor rumored to be 1st trim launched

[LDRHAWKE]

View attachment 22933

Just kidding GUS. I really am impressed by its

I am just a product of my forum.

So much so I believe BAW is the best thing EVER!

Just kidding GUS. I really am impressed by its size and capability

My crystal ball says March 28th 2024 delivery date for my Cybertruck.
$54,900 for Dual Motor.

Sponsored

 

[FarAway]

I am okay with 350 miles, IF IT is 350 miles and not 26% less.

tesla-vastly-overstates-its-vehicles-range-report-states (26% less)

 

[Crissa]

I am okay with 350 miles, IF IT is 350 miles and not 26% less.

tesla-vastly-overstates-its-vehicles-range-report-states (26% less)

Are you averaging under 50 or not? That's the biggest issue.

I can ride my Zero 80 miles if I average 30. But I can only go about 30-40 miles if I go 70.

-Crissa

 

[FarAway]

Are you averaging under 50 or not? That's the biggest issue.

I can ride my Zero 80 miles if I average 30. But I can only go about 30-40 miles if I go 70.

-Crissa

Wow, that is a humongous difference, I had no idea it was that great.

I live in a rural area, so I typically average around 50mph on a tank of gas. When I would really need the range would be traveling on a trip, which I do about 8 times a year, most likely via the interstate highway system. In my area if you are doing less than 70mph you will get run over.

 

[TBONO]

I can't tell you how to feel, but if you're not using Level 2 charging, you're missing the best part about EVs.

You plug it in, go to the movies, go to dinner, or go to sleep, and when you come back, it's full.

No waiting for a pump or a Supercharger. And you can do this at home, an RV slot, or a motel and completely skip a fueling stop!

-Crissa

If you’re trying to get somewhere in a reasonable amount of time that’s not a very realistic option. In the six years driving a Tesla a few times I’ve had to use a level two have been horrible. It’s basically a last resort before calling the tow truck.

if you’re at a level two to start with, it means you’re in the middle of nowhere and likely dealing with range anxiety.

however, the many trips I’ve taken with many superchargers available, including the 250 that I am at right now are dreamy

 

[CyberFitch]

Price is irrelevant. A 350 "Tesla" miles pickup is uncompetitive. The Silverado, and the real F150 EV (not the fake ICE conversion vehicle rushed to market and on sale now) will stomp it.

I’d rather have lighter more nimble daily driver than a heavy tank that get 500 miles

 

[FutureBoy]

I’d rather have lighter more nimble daily driver than a heavy tank that get 500 miles

I don't mind taking your "extra" batteries. Will help on the long overlanding treks out in the sticks.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

ive looked into the EPA processes for BEVs before, and admit that I've slept since then so my memory isn't as agile now as when I was seeped in it

that said, my takeaway is that manufacturers of BEVs provide the EPA the relevant data. that data is subject to various factors of adjustment. it leaves manufacturers, then, with some material leeway in what factors of adjustment they choose. as long as that variance is within the EPA's thresholds, it's taken as legit by the EPA.

and in doing that prior research, there were examples of how these differences between how manufacturers report their data / the factor of adjustment assumptions used by manufacturers, can materially change the data.

as a result, different manufacturers appear to have different philosophies about the direction in which they sandbag their data / resulting numbers. Tesla was shown as one that sandbags towards the optimistic, whereas for example Ford was shown as one that sandbags towards the conservative. As a result, real world stats from Tesla and Ford tend to reflect these two contrasting approaches.

no clue where GM/Chevy may fall on this spectrum.

The EPA bump, I suspect, is only mirroring what actual people in the field are experiencing. Like you I do not take much stick in the EPA numbers but when someone like Kyle at outofspecreviews, who tests just about every BEV on the same road in the same way, gets over 400 miles then that is a benchmark worth paying attention to.

but the point isn’t really about the Silverado WT. the point is that Elon/Tesla promised a 500+ mile tri-motor pickup truck, and they have the capability to build one, so why would they let GM/Chevy (anyone) beat them at their own game? If they sell a dual-motor that gets 350 miles that is in line with what they promised. Tri or Quad, no.

the question remains, which trim will be first. If it is a dual, 350 is probably right. If they start with the flagship as Elon mentioned when the Quad was introduced, then 350 is likely off the table. Just my 2 cents worth.

 

[cvalue13]

the point is that Elon/Tesla promised a 500+ mile tri-motor pickup truck, and they have the capability to build one, so why would they let GM/Chevy (anyone) beat them at their own game? If they sell a dual-motor that gets 350 miles that is in line with what they promised. Tri or Quad, no.

the question remains, which trim will be first. If it is a dual, 350 is probably right. If they start with the flagship as Elon mentioned when the Quad was introduced, then 350 is likely off the table. Just my 2 cents worth.

I take one of two options to be equally possible, from the limited sense of my inability to discern Teslas plans or reasons in any further detail

in both options, Tesla announces both a 350 and a 500

but in the first option, they’re equally available at the same time

mans in the latter option the 500 is rare if not unavailable for delivery for a long period

the second option would be borne entirely of 4680 production ramp

after the recent Munro video**, I lean heavily towards the second option but I’m happy to be be surprised by the first

**wherein they calculated that the 10M cells built in ATX by last month is only enough for roughly 7,000 Cybertrucks - not to say that’s any max but only to scope the 4680 scaling

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I’d rather have lighter more nimble daily driver than a heavy tank that get 500 miles

There are probably many who will never need to put something heavy in their truck, or tow anything over distance, and that is the purpose of the single and dual motor trims.

I take one of two options to be equally possible, from the limited sense of my inability to discern Teslas plans or reasons in any further detail

in both options, Tesla announces both a 350 and a 500

but in the first option, they’re equally available at the same time

mans in the latter option the 500 is rare if not unavailable for delivery for a long period

the second option would be borne entirely of 4680 production ramp

after the recent Munro video**, I lean heavily towards the second option but I’m happy to be be surprised by the first

**wherein they calculated that the 10M cells built in ATX by last month is only enough for roughly 7,000 Cybertrucks - not to say that’s any max but only to scope the 4680 scaling

That may in fact be the way it plays out (dual/350 now, tri-quad/500 later). My reservation already puts me in the 'later' group so I can at least 'afford' to wait (since I have no choice anyway) for 9 months after production begins.

Will Tesla really be battery constrained? We know that Tesla is expanding the number of battery lines at both Austin and Fremont, so by the first of the year they may very well be able to put out 5M cells/week total. That would accommodate 1,200 4680 MYs and 2,400 CTs (at 1,650 cells per pack - double the MY). This would annualize to 121,000 CTs, which would allow more time to build up cell production to reach 250K CTs per year and beyond. I know this is 'hack' reasoning, but it suggests that Tesla would not be cell-constrained during a slow ramp regardless of which trim they run first.

How many cells for which range? We also know that Tesla has improved the energy density by 10% (not at the pack) so it may make sense now to compare to the range of the 2170 MYLR. I do not know how efficient/inefficient the CT will be compared to the MY but if it is 75% as efficient then 1650 cells per pack could yield close to 500 miles (2 * 330 * .75). Just a thought. What I do not know is where the 350 mile estimates are coming from. Are they using 1,000 cellls per pack? If so, then 1000/828 * 330 * .75 = 300 (where 330 is the range of a LR model Y with 2170 cells and .75 is my hack guess at relative efficiency based on max 4.0 miles/kwh and the max 3.1 miles/kwh value of the MX). 1,200 cells/pack would be closer to a 370 mile range with similar reasoning. Of course, it probably isn't correct to use the range of the MYLR as a baseline, and maybe .75 is wrong, but someone has to qualify their guesses and it should probably be someone with expertise with BEV drivetrains and efficiency and not me. Interestingly, 1650/1200 = ~35% more battery cells so in a slow ramp it probably doesn't make a huge difference between dual, tri, and quad trims. I guess it all depends on what Elon/Tesla want to say with the initial rollout. Either way they won't be making Cybertrucks very quickly so they can probably choose whatever trim they want to start with.

I still believe that it makes sense for Tesla to lead with the highest trim. Not because they once intimated that they would, or because Elon wants the quad/plaid, but because the world will mentally calculate the value proposition based on subtracting off features from the flagship. For example, if they start with a quad-motor/500 mile trim then people will think "then if I subtract off 2 motors and 150 miles the price should be about X" and decide whether to wait. It is easier to mentally subtract than it is to mentally add...for some reason. People have been doing this in reverse with the Silverado WT (i.e., if the WT costs $80K with these features, what might the RST cost with all of the features).

Saturday morning rambling. Sorry. I have no answers, just guesses, and should probably just keep this to myself.

 

[MonkeyDeLuffy]

Tesla is battery constrained, unfortunately. But CT will be ok.

 

[CyberGus]

For reference: Tesla shipped 450,000 3+Y last quarter with about 4000 cells each. That’s nearly two billion cells.

In 1 quarter.

 

[SlegMD]

I don’t understand this equivalency of a 4 motor CT to match a 4 motor Rivian.
Trimotor is already comparable.
And I’m sure Lord Musk and crew are already considering the cell bottleneck.

 

[ED_SFO]

I don’t understand this equivalency of a 4 motor CT to match a 4 motor Rivian.
Trimotor is already comparable.
And I’m sure Lord Musk and crew are already considering the cell bottleneck.

Elon like to produce the best vehicle without much compromises. If other OEMs are producing 4 motor variants, Tesla also needs to produce a 4 motor variant. The reasoning is 4 is better than 3, plain and simple. 3 motors is not going to cut it against the competition.

 

[SlegMD]

Elon like to produce the best vehicle without much compromises. If other OEMs are producing 4 motor variants, Tesla also needs to produce a 4 motor variant. The reasoning is 4 is better than 3, plain and simple. 3 motors is not going to cut it against the competition.

3 motors is already cutting it, by current speculation of performance. There are other features to improve to achieve superiority.

Sponsored