350 mile range Quad Motor rumored to be 1st trim launched

[hooptycam]

sure.... you need to wait for 2 more year to....lol

You don’t know that. You really don’t.

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[cvalue13]

and thats why i am asking for more! so again, why do you think dual motor trim will be the most common, and tri will be very rare on release?

Cell production should have no problem keeping up with the initial run rate while installing the larger battery pack.

some rough data points that should be in your bucket

• go watch recent Munro video, last one ever with both Sandy and Cory. They talk about how they’ve paid attention, and believe there are few MYs being produced with 4680s, and that in all their factory visits here or abroad they’ve never once seen a 4680 vehicle being built
• At GFTX this past June, they announced having built the 10-millionth 4680, after ~6mo of build
• 10M 4680s is enough to build about 3,000 ~350mi Cybertrucks (leaving zero for MY)**
• Meanwhile, Panasonic has announced months ago that it will not be able to start volume production of its 4680 battery cells for Tesla before March 2024

Granted, GFTX battery ramp and density may change quickly. But let’s just for directionality assume that by Jan 1, they’ve improved an order of magnitude+ from 10M/6mo, to 10M/mo

Assuming they allocate zero cells to model Y, that would mean they’ll be starting retail production at a battery constrained monthly run of ~3,000 Cybertrucks (or a 36K/yr run rate)

**BTW, I know there are contrary calculations out there that have stated that 10M cells would be enough for eg 8,000 CTs, not 3K. But I’ve also seen calcs that arrive at even less than 3K.

I’m picking a fairly conservative number,but in part because I think that it accounts for the fact that Tesla is unlikely to deprive all other models of the 4680 and devote them solely to the CT. So whether you view it 10M=3K trucks because they’re giving all cells to CT, or instead 10M=8K trucks but they’re giving half to other models… the same rough point still remains

i wouldn’t dare guarantee or declare significant battery constraint as irrefutable fact, I just also can’t dismiss it as unlikley

so if as I think the dual will be the “300+ mi” model described at 2019 unveil, and the tri will be the “500+ mi” model described at unveil, battery constraint seems relevant to model roll out and proportions

 

[hooptycam]

I predict reservation holders aren‘t going to pass on their Cybertruck purchase due to “only” a 350 mile range. Even Rivian doesn’t have their 400 mile range Max Pack available yet.

500 miles is reason no.2 for buying the truck. No.1 reason is the stainless steel body and no paint job. A lot less pretty to worry about. Durable, not an egg shell. And of course reason 3 is FSD.

 

[wshunter]

https://www.notebookcheck.net/Tesla...motor-AWD-model-releasing-first.734300.0.html

It makes logical sense as the Quad would be the flagship of the Cybertruck trims. The move would be similar to Rivian. They launched their Quad Motor first and followed up with a Dual Motor version at a later date.

If the rumor turns out to be true I predict Tesla targeted over 835 HP to one up the Quad Motor Rivian R1T.

If this prediction comes to fruition I expect the Quad Motor MSRP to be around 15% higher than the Tri Motor $69,990 reveal pricing announced in late 2019 (just under $80k).

A friend and I were speculating (I take all this to be speculation) that they will come out with the 4 motor 350 mile version at a competitive price - then offer a software upgrade to 4 or 500 mile range for extra money for those who want to pay the premium. That would be sort of the reverse of what they have done recently w the MS and MX cheap versions.

 

[Diehard]

Does Tesla publish battery size? Is there anyway to know (before Sandy opens up the battery pack and after Tesla release specs and price) how many usable and total KWh we are getting?

A friend and I were speculating (I take all this to be speculation) that they will come out with the 4 motor 350 mile version at a competitive price - then offer a software upgrade to 4 or 500 mile range for extra money for those who want to pay the premium. That would be sort of the reverse of what they have done recently w the MS and MX cheap versions.

There would be a lot of unused battery and motors being lugged around. Tesla seem to be big on efficiency both in design and manufacturing.

 

[Mini2nut]

Like all Tesla vehicles the Cybertruck is going to be a performance monster. I can’t wait for the official HP numbers to be announced, hopefully next month. I am confident it will trump every other ICE/BEV pickup currently on the market.

 

[Baldey]

said stuff

Are you saying that because you live in texas, you are able to hear Musk whisper sweet nothings from his GFTX couch?

Also, no need to pull numbers out of any arses, when hard facts are available. Tesla in-housed-produced 4680-type battery cell weighs 355g and has a capacity of 26.136 Ah. This equates to about 100 watt hours per cell (26.136Ah * 3.9V = 101wattHours) . Easy math! So for a 100kWh pack, you would need about 1000 cells.

So from the current capacity, they could make 10,000 small CT packs, or about 12500 MY packs. But the current capacity is irrelevant.. Current capacity represents RnD. Why would they try to make a butload of cells, before perfecting the design? Now that they are ready to make the next generation "cyber cell", they have been very publicly busy with expanding their 4680 production lines, specifically for the CT launch. WE HAVE NO IDEA what the starting capacity will be, but i agree with your estimate of 10M per month (not quite a whole order of magnitude, closer to half of one) .

With that estimate, i think 10k dual motor or 5k trimotor trucks a month is MOOOOORE than enough to begin ramping with... And if i were tesla, i'd prioritize the 5k trimotor route..

 

[NJturtlePower]

500 miles is reason no.2 for buying the truck. No.1 reason is the stainless steel body and no paint job. A lot less pretty to worry about. Durable, not an egg shell. And of course reason 3 is FSD.

FSD would be like #69 on my list after being a 5-year Model 3 driver. ?‍

It will never drive I as want around town and I only see it as a useful driver aid on longer highway trips.

 

[anionic1]

*pretty* confident it’s this, with the caveat that tri’s will be rare as hens teeth for quite some time

I think the motor count, range and accessories/options are really the last critical pieces of the Cybertruck mystery.

 

[Baldey]

FSD would be like #69 on my list after being a 5-year Model 3 driver. ?‍

It will never drive I as want around town and I only see it as a useful driver aid on longer highway trips.

i do the same, but i agree with FSD being #3 reason for me too. Barely use the feature now, but im a believer that this will change overnight. Level 3 will be around for 6 months tops before jumping straight to lvl 5, with the way Tesla is implementing self driving. This is not so for the competition, who has to map all of their routes.. Who the hell ever thought that was a good idea!?!?! I mean legacy company management is all literally INSANE, so i guess i'm not too surprised..

 

[Kingdom1st]

The fact of the matter is, GM currently has a 450 (actual, not claimed) mile truck in production. Yes, it's a little pricey, but if Tesla really can't beat or meet that at a similar or lower price, my faith in the company will be seriously shaken.

Yeah, I definitely agree with you that they need an affordable version of cyber truck with 400+ miles. I don’t envy Tesla in their decision because it’s a tricky one. As a consumer which would you rather have, a 350 mile cyber truck at a better price? Or say a 420 mile cyber truck for $10,000 more? is 72 100 miles more range worth another 10 or $15,000 and does that price too many people out? I don’t know. I personally want more range but I’m also just a regular guy who can’t afford an 80 K to 100 K price truck. Also, the only Chevy trucks in production are for fleets and a recent towing test pulling a small John Deere tractor a total of 8000 pounds including the trailer they only got 1 mi./ kWh so their range was only a maximum of 200 miles towing. So in my opinion, which is worth about two cents, a 350 mile range. Truck might be a great option for Tesla to offer the masses when 90% of truck owners never tow trailers and it’s more affordable but if you really need to tow a trailer often and go long distances, you’ll just have to pony up the dollars and buy their top trim model which I am still hoping will have 500 miles or better. But we will see!

 

[WormtownKris]

With that estimate, i think 10k dual motor or 5k trimotor trucks a month is MOOOOORE than enough to begin ramping with... And if i were tesla, i'd prioritize the 5k trimotor route..

If that were the metric, I'd highly suspect Tesla would then opt to prioritize the 10K dual motors. Twice as many CTs on the streets, and twice as many crossed off the waiting list. Most importantly, no matter what your personal guesses are for final prices, unless you feel the Tri Motor will be more than double the price of the Dual Motor, 10K Duals will produce a lot more revenue than 5K Tri's. Being able to post sold ramp numbers and better financials would likely take priority over launching with a higher performing vehicle at a slower rate.
Hopefully the 4680 ramp is going parabolic as we speak!

 

[Art O'Connor]

We've gone over this many times.

That's why there's chargers between those cities. You stop, maybe grab a snack or go pee and the car will be charged.

I drive through Nevada every year. There are very few routes without at least level 2 50a charging in between.

I really hate the exaggeration.

-Crissa

Reno to Vegas - normally a 6.5 hour drive. But, if I have to stop in Tonopha to charge at the Tesla charging station across from McDonalds, add an hour. Home, I fully charge using solar; so it is free. In Vegas, the hotel has free chargers for guests. Tonopha - not free.

Next time you drive from Reno to LV, take the turnoff for Silver Peak (where the only operating lithium mine in the US is). It is before Tonopha. Right after you leave US 95, there is a sign "Next gas station 135 miles". So, not an exaggeration.

"There are very few routes without at least level 2 50a. charging in between." Get off the freeway and see the real Nevada; but no charging stations. Staying on the freeway, you would miss this:

 

[cvalue13]

Are you saying that because you live in texas, you are able to hear Musk whisper sweet nothings from his GFTX couch?

I've bookmarked your post, so that I can come back to it in a few months

Also, no need to pull numbers out of any arses, when hard facts are available.

I didn't say i was pulling numbers out of arses. With brevity, i referenced that other people who know have done their own maths to various ranges. See eg Munro's discusson on this point. They think Tesla will need more like 1,300-1,500. You think less. That's fine. One of you will be more right or more wrong.

but all that nonsense aside, you then just assert that if you were tesla you would prioritize tri's

you're not tesla

 

[hooptycam]

FSD would be like #69 on my list after being a 5-year Model 3 driver. ?‍

It will never drive I as want around town and I only see it as a useful driver aid on longer highway trips.

For FSD that is my requirement as well. I drive long distances for work sometimes. . Los Angeles to New Orleans,- Chicago-Atlanta-Detroit and so on. Thats the reason to wait 500 mile vehicle. Still don’t trust charge stations between stops. I trust a Tesla stops more. So I currently drive an ICE car. There’s a gas station every other exit except when heading outside of El Paso heading to San Antonio, then it can be 20 miles apart at times. Also why I won’t buy any other current electric car. The mileage is not true (even with Tesla). I guess they don’t take terrain into the factor or speeds. Passing trucks up hill. Etc… etc…. 500 miles would do the trick.

But as crazy as it sounds. My work schedule in the city can sometimes have me working days one Week and nights the next. So at 6 am I just finishing a 12 hour night shift and have to drive in stop and go traffic and end up drifting into other lanes and not going when lights turn green, etc..etc. I had a Model S 2016. I missed the added cameras upgrade hook up by 1 month. But the car still did some amazing things even then. And I rented a X once and was quite surprised by how well the car drove itself ( still could not handle driving up the 110 Arroyo parkway in Los Angels by itself. ) I really enjoy long distance driving.

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