Cybertruck deliveries to hit 100-120k in 2024 says analyst Ming-Chi Kuo

[cvalue13]

The rumor of 375,000 trucks in 2024 was ridiculously high.

if folks paid attention to where/how that 375k prediction arose, it’s actually pretty closely mirrors this analyst’s predictions of ~120k

the 375k number came from a Tesla communication to third party parts manufacturers as being the potential max unit order number

And when ordering parts, one does not order the number of parts needed based on the number of expected completed vehicles, but instead a multiple of that for purposes of service replacement parts, parts wastage, etc. So eg a number of 375k parts a year can equate to an expectation of ~180k trucks built a year … juiced up as a max that the manu must be prepared to meet

so if Tesla expected to build for example 120K units in a year, they juice the max capacity obligation for eg 180k units per year, and an expectation of having spares on hand for each unit built

none of that’s a science of course, but instead an example of how people took the 375k parts order and made a bunch of incorrect assumptions about the vehicle build expectation

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[JBee]

no ramp is disappointing. unibody and not bulletproof... probably won't float either. Most of the big wish list items are gone. At this point the number of unique features seems pretty limited.

I said no such thing.

I think you got your quote code muddled up. That post was from @Jhodgesatmb.

 

[jerhenderson]

Cybertruck 2? the hell? we dont even have cybertruck 1 yet bro.

'analyst '

 

[cvalue13]

This really is a "Nothing to see here." Just more FUD.

What's FUDDY about someone making a guess? That he said not a whole bunch would ship this year?

+1

Though in addition to this year’s numbers, I suppose @FarAway could also be feeling that 2024’s numbers are for him too low and so FUD

at the same time folks who for years have been guessing eg 500K-1.2M/yr were also just guesses based on far less data than we now have available today

 

[JBee]

I just don't have any trust in the source, and unless he can provide some evidence, or experience in predicting the automotive field, or can provide evidence of an internal Tesla source, his guess is as good, if not worse than any of ours.

All bets are off, if they can't produce cell numbers to put in vehicles anyway.

So unless we can get data on that, the line ramp rate is nigh irrelevant.

To be honest, I don't think even Tesla has a fixed number or production estimate going forwards "yet", without a 20-50% error. That will only reduce as production ramps and they work through any issues.

If that is so, what chance do we have at even guessing a number out of a hat, without all the inputs they have at their disposal?

And note that prediction error rate, could be in either direction, provided they have the component capacity. So that will be the hard upper limit either way.

Just give me some info from a source closer to the subject matter than some apple analyst please.

 

[Diehard]

I just don't have any trust in the source, and unless he can provide some evidence, or experience in predicting the automotive field, or can provide evidence of an internal Tesla source, his guess is as good, if not worse than any of ours.

All bets are off, if they can't produce cell numbers to put in vehicles anyway.

So unless we can get data on that, the line ramp rate is nigh irrelevant.

To be honest, I don't think even Tesla has a fixed number or production estimate going forwards "yet", without a 20-50% error. That will only reduce as production ramps and they work through any issues.

If that is so, what chance do we have at even guessing a number out of a hat, without all the inputs they have at their disposal?

And note that prediction error rate, could be in either direction, provided they have the component capacity. So that will be the hard upper limit either way.

Just give me some info from a source closer to the subject matter than some apple analyst please.

This makes me wonder; did Tesla give projected delivery date range for reservation holders after Y got into production? Do we expect Tesla’s best guess at any point? or each person is mostly in the dark until their numbers come up?

 

[JBee]

This makes me wonder; did Tesla give projected delivery date range for reservation holders after Y got into production? Do we expect Tesla’s best guess at any point? or each person is mostly in the dark until their numbers come up?

Historically, I'm not sure with the MY. But I think there was at least an unofficial build number tally that you could look up to at least get an idea.

The thing is that it's hard to tell if they prioritise one delivery location over another, so depending on where you live, and how many are ordered there, you might have to wait much longer then your reservation number anyway. Hence me using a Austin address instead, to make sure my number comes up earlier, rather than later because of the location.

So although you get a spot in line with a pre-order, you also only really get assigned a VIN once you've configured it (once that page opens), and once you have that you finally get a location dependant build number, which equates to a delivery date. That whole process though could throw you out 1000's (maybe 10,000?) positions in line. I also think the configure page will only open once you number is close, and not at the same time as everyone else. So be ready to complete it at that time, on the day.

 

[HaulingAss]

and no ramp, and there are mirrors, and there is a BAW instead of a laser or electromagnetic wiper, ... let the exodus begin (note that I said nothing about range - still holding out hope on that one).

Tesla never said the Cybertruck would have a laser or electromagnetic wiper.

Where did you get that idea from? Probably the Tesla fanboys who think every patent Tesla files for is going to be implemented, but only an extremely low percentage of all patents filed for make it into the marketplace.

And Federal Motor Vehicle rules require mirrors, nothing Tesla can do about that except point out that the owner can remove them if they want. And Elon has already made that clear (the mirrors will be easily removeable.

Best not to project your own hopes and dreams too much, lest one become frustrated and angry.

 

[HaulingAss]

Is the Cybertruck 2 going to have the exoskeleton and revolutionary manufacturing techniques and the ramp?

I don't know about the tailgate ramp, but it wouldn't make sense to redesign Cybertruck without an exoskeleton (so I think we can safely assume it will stay). Probably any major redesign will have more revolutionary manufacturing techniques added (as well as any they may add along the way).

 

[HaulingAss]

From the OP:
One of the most respected and accurate Apple analysts in the world, Ming-Chi Kuo gives his estimates for Cybertruck delivery figures in 2023, 2024 and 2025.


HUH? Apple analysts?? uh, er, ok..... you're qualified..... NOT!!
This really is a "Nothing to see here." Just more FUD.

Yeah, but he's an Apple analyst so I have a question for him:

How many Apple EV's will Apple make in 2024, 2025, and 2026?

Whadda mean zero? We've already been waiting for almost a decade! ?

 

[HaulingAss]

Strongly disagree with the low production numbers. Tesla Texas is a monster of an assembly plant. Looking at the drone videos one would think you would be looking at a thousand acres of chaos but all those hundreds of projects scattered about are nearly finished. Come springtime, with all the ditch digging done and all the landscape in that plant will start punching out some numbers.

I expect to see a relatively slow ramp in production volume until Tesla gets the initial production line properly dialed in. Then I think they will replicate it with at least one more line, perhaps two, and production volume will explode. That might happen by next fall, possibly earlier, but I wouldn't count on it.

 

[CHC]

This analyst is not well credentialed as to TSLA or automotive specific production and is based in China. He knows no more than any of us when production will start and when it will ramp up

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Tesla never said the Cybertruck would have a laser or electromagnetic wiper.

Where did you get that idea from? Probably the Tesla fanboys who think every patent Tesla files for is going to be implemented, but only an extremely low percentage of all patents filed for make it into the marketplace.

And Federal Motor Vehicle rules require mirrors, nothing Tesla can do about that except point out that the owner can remove them if they want. And Elon has already made that clear (the mirrors will be easily removeable.

Best not to project your own hopes and dreams too much, lest one become frustrated and angry.

I am joking on top of the post I responded to of course. I don’t really believe there is a shred of proof for any of those ‘claims’.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I said no such thing.

I think you got your quote code muddled up. That post was from @Jhodgesatmb.

I did say that, but I was just adding BS to the post I was responding to. It was a joke, but I posted without a smiley because the whole thing seemed so silly. Sorry all.

 

[Cyberman]

Is the Cybertruck 2 going to have the exoskeleton and revolutionary manufacturing techniques and the ramp?

No, it's the long-awaited Titanium upgrade.

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