Rumor: $98900 price for tri-motor Cybertruck??

[JBee]

yeah, Model S plaid is currently only $15K more than base.

that said, the Plaid was originally $131K, while the LR trim below it was $95K - a $40k delta

so in the CT, the real question will be what else comes in the ‘performance’ package?

• The motors should mean it’s not only faster and more powerful, but that towing rating is better (since power assists in several of the tow rating calculation tests)
• Exclusive trim
• Premium wheel set standard
• other?

So while I agree that $30K strikes me as a big delta, I’ve often been surprised but what car companies can charge for either exclusivity (eg the exclusive trim) or add-ons (eg the premium wheels)

for example, with The Lightning, the price delta between the Lariat ER and Platinum trim was close to $13K, and all that got you was the badging, ‘upgraded leather’, massaging seats, larger rims, and - as a result of the added weight and and larger rims - a decrease in range by 6.25%.

And some people paid it!

Doubting my instincts here whether a $30K delta is unhinged (or if instead it’s buyers that can be unhinged)

One detail: I'm not sure how the tow rating relates to the extra power of the third motor.

Other full size trucks pull more with less than the hp of the DM, so I'd expect DM to have the same rating, provided it also has sufficient brakes. But larger diameter brakes aren't expensive either.

I'm not sure what the intention of the high TM price would be except to help motivate TM orders to DMs, and to do so to avoid backlash of not offering a TM on launch.

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[Crissa]

What index measures this?

Coming soon: Tri-motor 500 mile cybertruck $233,850

That is an example of something that can raise the price of things on the index - but are specifically not inflation.

-Crissa

 

[Deleted member 20282]

Saw this thread and sorry for being new, I promise not a troll.

Just wanted to inject another theorem that I didn’t see here on the price difference making sense. I’m sure inflation had some part to do with it, but that’s only one piece. Some other contributing factors to consider:

a) The cost of construction of buildings and facilities, grew well beyond anything could have predicted during the pandemic. My Dad’s house was bid out in 2019 and then when we started ordering materials, in some cases it literally doubled. I suspect the construction cost of the supporting pieces for CT added to COGS on the CT in part.

b) When the prices were announced, the design wasn’t even finalized or real. What I mean by real, is things like 3,500 lbs and 14k towing is pulling numbers out of your ass. At least if Tesla intends to use SAE J2807 to compare to other OEM’s. The towing capacity and payload is different on every single vehicle that goes out the door based on options, trim, etc. You can’t calculate payload or towing without GVWR/GCWR, which you can’t get until it’s done. It’s possible with all the reconfiguring in size and safety that they incurred some expensive changes to make it work.

For me, they missed 2 major things on this truck in the design that worry me:

- If it’s G or H, there is no way this thing ships with a SAE payload of 3,500#. I can’t imagine a world where a cold steel truck made out of 1/8” steel is lighter than an all aluminum lightning. But even if it matched F-150 weight, you’re down to 2,200# in payload and you can’t get 14,000# towing with that payload. It also confirms to me that the ICE test was silly because the cybertruck is classed like a F-250 and weighs what an F-250 weighs. And F-250 capability destroys CT.

- They left out a lot of trailers that can be towed in this segment. You could not tow a goose neck or 5th wheel with those bed rails like that. The cast design would prohibit a Class V hitch to tow anything big or tow 14,000 # without a weight distribution hitch. F-150, you can put 1,400# on the tongue without a weight distribution hitch. That CT driving around with the ATC, had a weight distribution hitch, something you arguably don’t need on the F-150 and definitely don’t need on any other 2b truck like an F-250.

I suspect the caution on the part of Elon is that none of the stats will line up with launch. It was really dumb for them to announce a truck and take pre-orders without a finalized design. The cost will drift and I suspect the features will be analogous to all the other EV’s. ~2k payload, ~10k towing and ~350 miles.

As for Tesla getting in trouble, yeah, I suspect they will take a lot of lumps on this. They took orders for something they can’t make as originally offered. And they wanted to try to undercut Ford, which isn’t as easy as they maybe thought or projected.

 

[Gurule92]

With Cybertruck priced near $100,000, there would be no reason to ramp production to 125k/year.

This may be the most serious thing you've posted

 

[PilotPete]

- I can’t imagine a world where a cold steel truck made out of 1/8” steel is lighter than an all aluminum lightning.

If you truly can't imagine it, then you aren't trying or researching.

It's not that 3mm SS is lighter than aluminum, it's that the electric motors, castings, and SS are far lighter than the heavy steel frame, engine, transmission, transfer case, axles, and aluminum body. Now you have enough weight wavings for the battery pack and stay in the same neighborhood. You can't just pick one part of a vehicle and say "See, it HAS to be heavier!"

And you are making some huge assumptions that Tesla can't make a center hitch or 5th wheel work. It's all how you distribute the weight and stress.

I also find it amazing that you are so certain that the F250 capability "destroys" the CT. What is so amazing is, we don't know what the final capabilities of the CT might be, but you know that they are "destroyed" by the F250. I'll suggest that it depends on which capabilities you compare. Yes, the F250 can out tow a Lamborghini Urus, but I'll take the Lambo on a slalom course, or even a limbo contest. For me and my uses, I doubt the F250 even comes close to the CT. It's all about perspective and use.

 

[Deleted member 20282]

This may be the most serious thing you've posted

Yeah, if the conversion rate on the most popular truck ever sold, with a loyal following, is this low, it doesn’t bode well for CT sales. I would have expected a huge % of F-150 fleet sales to go EV and they didn’t.

I’m not sure the appetite for an 80k EV truck is really there. Certainly not what I would have thought or hoped for.

 

[Deleted member 20282]

If you truly can't imagine it, then you aren't trying or researching.

It's not that 3mm SS is lighter than aluminum, it's that the electric motors, castings, and SS are far lighter than the heavy steel frame, engine, transmission, transfer case, axles, and aluminum body. Now you have enough weight wavings for the battery pack and stay in the same neighborhood. You can't just pick one part of a vehicle and say "See, it HAS to be heavier!"

And you are making some huge assumptions that Tesla can't make a center hitch or 5th wheel work. It's all how you distribute the weight and stress.

I also find it amazing that you are so certain that the F250 capability "destroys" the CT. What is so amazing is, we don't know what the final capabilities of the CT might be, but you know that they are "destroyed" by the F250. I'll suggest that it depends on which capabilities you compare. Yes, the F250 can out tow a Lamborghini Urus, but I'll take the Lambo on a slalom course, or even a limbo contest. For me and my uses, I doubt the F250 even comes close to the CT. It's all about perspective and use.

Well, first of all, F-150 is largely aluminum, not steel, including frame sections. It’s quite a bit lighter than say a Silverado frame as evidenced by the ICE curb weight differences and payload differences. Silverado to CT I’d agree. It should absolutely weigh less than CT. Those body panels, are going to be so heavy that I don’t think anything else will move the needle. There’s probably 1,000+ lbs just in panels there.

As for 5th wheel, it’s the height of the sides, the bed on a truck is the way it is for a specific reason. Trailers. You need flat, not angled bed rails and you need clearance. None of that works with the CT, since the pin weight needs to be at the rear axle or in front of the rear axle.

And what I mean by destroy is that a F-250, in particular a diesel F-250 has considerably more payload, towing, range, power, seating room, ground clearance and off road capability. An electric motor will never match the ability to lock differentials and axles because physics (look at the CT struggle with basic off-roading in that video compared to a normal SUV). Also, for the price point, why not just go to F-350 instead of F-250 and that gap widens. An F-250 could tow a cybertruck with a maxed out trailer and have room to spare and still out range it.

 

[Gurule92]

Yeah, if the conversion rate on the most popular truck ever sold, with a loyal following, is this low, it doesn’t bode well for CT sales. I would have expected a huge % of F-150 fleet sales to go EV and they didn’t.

I’m not sure the appetite for an 80k EV truck is really there. Certainly not what I would have thought or hoped for.

Well, it's hard to convert the hardcore ICE truck loyalist (which are ppl who buy current f150s.) CT is going to capitalize on the non-truck people as well as some of the truckies.

But I still hope the price is low lol

 

[Deleted member 20282]

Well, it's hard to convert the hardcore ICE truck loyalist (which are ppl who buy current f150s.) CT is going to capitalize on the non-truck people as well as some of the truckies.

But I still hope the price is low lol

You’re not wrong, but the number was so low that I don’t think it translates well for CT. If they come out at 98k or whatever, I don’t see 1 million people holding on to reservations. Lightning had good pre-orders but after they raised prices, 80% of them fell off.

But, like I mentioned above, I don’t see CT coming out with any better specs than a Lightning, Rivian, etc. At least nothing dramatically different…. a few %, maybe 10%. But no where near 3,500 lbs payload which kills any chance of towing 14,000 lbs SAE. I was incredibly interested in the idea of 500+ miles, but not if I can’t even tow my trailers. If that payload drops below 2k, it’s a non-starter for me. Can’t even tow my camper because I hit my pin weight way before my towing capacity. That has to change peoples minds at some level if it’s more expensive and less capable than announced.

 

[Crimson_Fate]

You’re not wrong, but the number was so low that I don’t think it translates well for CT. If they come out at 98k or whatever, I don’t see 1 million people holding on to reservations. Lightning had good pre-orders but after they raised prices, 80% of them fell off.

But, like I mentioned above, I don’t see CT coming out with any better specs than a Lightning, Rivian, etc. At least nothing dramatically different…. a few %, maybe 10%. But no where near 3,500 lbs payload which kills any chance of towing 14,000 lbs SAE. I was incredibly interested in the idea of 500+ miles, but not if I can’t even tow my trailers. If that payload drops below 2k, it’s a non-starter for me. Can’t even tow my camper because I hit my pin weight way before my towing capacity. That has to change peoples minds at some level if it’s more expensive and less capable than announced.

I would have already bought a F150 lightning if it wasn't for the range. Besides the current price I belive the range is holding people back from wanting it. ( unless you are just using it for a daily driver) .

If Tesla can deliver a 500 mile range CT at a decent price. There really isn't anything out there to compete besides the Silverado and they have delayed that.

 

[NoTime]

Chevy is already building the Silverado at Factory Zero, though it's at a trickle. What's delayed is them bringing up a second assembly plant at Orion.

 

[Deleted member 20282]

I would have already bought a F150 lightning if it wasn't for the range. Besides the current price I belive the range is holding people back from wanting it. ( unless you are just using it for a daily driver) .

If Tesla can deliver a 500 mile range CT at a decent price. There really isn't anything out there to compete besides the Silverado and they have delayed that.

Range on Lightning is interesting. It’s understated as they rated it with 1,000 lbs cargo compared to Tesla seemingly overstating range in my experience. The only concern I have for range is towing range as I split my time between boating up north and downstate, so I drive 266 miles to the cabin damn near every weekend in the summer. My ICE truck, goes there and back towing on a single tank of gas, so for weekend trips it’s considerably more practical. What is a 7 hour round trip while towing for me without stops with the Diesel is a 10 hour trip in the Lightning not even towing with 1 maybe 2 stops and I can’t go as fast as the diesel. I’m afraid of how many times I have to stop towing. I leave the truck to do the truck work (tow pig) and drive all the other fun cars for everything else.

Real world, Tesla Y doesn’t go as far. Friend of mine and I drove same speed same time up from Detroit to Traverse City. The Y needed a charger before F-150, which has 80 miles left and makes it all the way. He basically could maybe make it if we slowed down below 70, but at 75.. it was too close for comfort.

Don’t have hands on experience with S or X range, but so far both Ford EV’s out range it in the real world here in Michigan based on first hand experience.

It’s kind of soured me a bit as I was very interested in both trucks, but I just don’t think they’re practical as trucks. Cool vehicles, but drastically diminished capability as a truck.

 

[cvalue13]

With Cybertruck priced near $100,000, there would be no reason to ramp production to 125k/year.

To back up, they didn’t say they’d sell 125K in the first year, they said they’d aspire to reach that run rate at some point during 2024

let’s say they have a ramp curve that gets them to 125K run rate as early as beginning of Q1 (unlikely, but), assume they make only 100K Total CTs in 2024

of those 100K CTs, you only plan to build/sell 20K (though the exclusivity buyers and wealthy might give that a run for the money)

and so that leaves 80k base CTs at $[65]K

you can sell that many of the ‘hot new’ CT to the reservation list

then late 2024 you announce a cheaper one and a LR one, now you’re on your way to your (again bc ramp) 200K in 2025.

etc., etc.

all the above and, to the extent the top trim is $1 less than $100K, ramp is slower in 2024, there are more exclusivity buyers, or a new offering comes out sooner - it all gets even easier


**this could be an interesting separate post…

 

[PilotPete]

and so that leaves 80k base CTs at $[65]K

you can sell that many of the ‘hot new’ CT to the reservation list

then late 2024 you announce a cheaper one and a LR one, now you’re on your way to your (again bc ramp) 200K in 2025.

That works IF people haven’t abandoned ship and bought something else, AND you haven’t ticked them off to the point they don’t come back.

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