Rumor: $98900 price for tri-motor Cybertruck??

[Bill837]

Afaik, this FB post has been the only post that’s proposed a number. Also, $98,900 isn’t entirely unrealistic

MXP is now $95k. The CT uses more battery than an MXP, presumably same motors, yet brand new manufacturing process. So, I can see how the CT trimotor could be more than an MXP.

MX production line has been around for a long time now, and the capital equipment has probably been depreciated a lot already and the manufacturing staff are very familiar with the process. CT equipment and production line are brand new. And why wouldn’t Tesla try to capture as much profit while the car is new and demand high?

Right, we've seen APs over there just posting a lot of stuff as facts with

Dirty Tesla says the rumor is not true.

Note, we don't have any of our reliable people saying it's confirmed.

-Crissa

That friken post. Wasn't even an AP, just one guy who thinks his sources are golden. Got his post yanked after I started coming for him. "Its not a random youtube guy, he;s ALWAYS right!!!"

And when I finally got a chance to look it over, yes, he's a rando internet guy who regurgitates the same stuff we see here and reddit and FB.

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[AlDente]

If true that price will thin out the Reservation que.

 

[Mini2nut]

I think we all need the put speculative Cybertruck pricing on hold for now. The 2024 Cybertruck reveal is just around corner.

 

[AlexcyberTX]

I’m hoping they make the MSRP even higher. I’m buying regardless what MSRP is, higher the price more people back out sooner I get mines

 

[BenH]

I will be one of the 98%. F150 is about $55k. I can pay for many years of gas with $30k, and still have leftover money.

 

[newwave1331]

For the 5-6 years leading up to the unveil, new vehicle inflation was zero. Tesla had no thought to inflation when it announced pricing and specs. They were actually considering costs coming down! The FRED data shows new vehicle pricing has gone up 23.3% since unveil, this would be the starting point of today's prices. The federal rebate was not going to be available as of the original release timeline.

In the past, Tesla has kept prices at a level to recoup customer federal rebates. If you factor in a 23.3% increase plus $7,500, you come to $69,137 from the $49,990 unveil price. Lets call it $69,420 or a 39% increase. Apply the same % increase to the $69,990 tri-motor and you get $97k.

$69,420 and $96,420 would put this above MY Performance and around MX Plaid for 2024. Once Tesla is ready to hit the ramp, they can reassess their pricing structure. At least these prices should keep flipping to a minimum.

 

[cvalue13]

The FRED data shows new vehicle pricing has gone up 23.3% since unveil

while apparently trucks in particular up nearer to 31%

it’s a real consideration

 

[Crissa]

For the 5-6 years leading up to the unveil, new vehicle inflation was zero. Tesla had no thought to...

That's not how inflation works. There's a reason it's called a price index and not an inflation index

If Tesla did not examine their costs and build in inflation, they'd be hugely liable to their investors.

-Crissa

 

[newwave1331]

That's not how inflation works. There's a reason it's called a price index and not an inflation index

If Tesla did not examine their costs and build in inflation, they'd be hugely liable to their investors.

-Crissa

I've heard you say "that's not how inflation works" several times. Please tell me how it works.

How would they be liable to their investors?

 

[cvalue13]

I've heard you say "that's not how inflation works" several times. Please tell me how it works.

How would they be liable to their investors?

they wouldn’t

blah blah blah

 

[Crissa]

I've heard you say "that's not how inflation works" several times. Please tell me how it works.

How would they be liable to their investors?

Inflation is a calculation of many things over a broad market to get a measure of permanently increased demand. It's confounded by individual market forces, so it can not be measured directly, so they measure price indexes, like this one. But a single price index is filled with other forces unique and not that change the prices, as well as interchangeability, the more interchangeable a product is, the less it actually can be seen as an individual measure of inflation.

Computers, for instance, are famously resistant to inflation. Their price index is basically flat. But is that because inflation? Of course not! It's because they're mostly built by machines, which over time make a product that's interchangeable with a newer one. So new ones can't cost too much more - people will just refuse to pay for them - and old ones can't stay at a high price - new ones can undercut them in price per performance.

Basically, inflation is only a part of cost, but we can only see it reflected in price.

Cars, during the pandemic, suddenly had their demand soar - because of instability in the job market, fear of public spaces like mass transportation and carpooling, etc. More cars were needed. At the same time, less cars were produced, for various stupid and real reasons. But none of this was permanent.

That's not inflation. It's just a change in demand versus the supply.

So, a single price index isn't inflation. A change in a single price index is not necessarily inflation (and in a single price index, unless it's measuring a group of 'everything', most likely isn't).

I'd link to Wikipedia, but like most math things it gets stupidly opaque stupidly quick.

Okay.

Second question, "how would they be liable to investors?" Well, investors can sue a company for failing to keep to its fiduciary duty. Overly sim[ply, if an action could be seen as harmful to profits, or to investor returns, it can be sued to force the company to cough up a settlement. Which is usually money, but not always. https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/glossary/class-actions

-Crissa

 

[JBee]

For the 5-6 years leading up to the unveil, new vehicle inflation was zero. Tesla had no thought to inflation when it announced pricing and specs. They were actually considering costs coming down! The FRED data shows new vehicle pricing has gone up 23.3% since unveil, this would be the starting point of today's prices. The federal rebate was not going to be available as of the original release timeline.

In the past, Tesla has kept prices at a level to recoup customer federal rebates. If you factor in a 23.3% increase plus $7,500, you come to $69,137 from the $49,990 unveil price. Lets call it $69,420 or a 39% increase. Apply the same % increase to the $69,990 tri-motor and you get $97k.

$69,420 and $96,420 would put this above MY Performance and around MX Plaid for 2024. Once Tesla is ready to hit the ramp, they can reassess their pricing structure. At least these prices should keep flipping to a minimum.

My only counter argument to that is that anyone who is buying "just" an extra motor to get a TM for $30k is a fool, especially seeing you won't get more pack anyway?

I think it's just all click bait to get another 15 pages of pricing commentary on various platforms.

That's how fake news works isn't it?

But as for the cost of the CT, I think we are all on the high side with the estimates.

If casts are $100 of aluminum, motor and drivetrains $1000 each (as per investor day), and structural battery packs around the $100kWh ($12k), 3mm of stainless steel for the whole area $900, then that doesn't add up to much. I think the BOM is under $20-25k.

The rest must be in manufacturing, of which capex is repaid over time, and labour/operation as they go.

Now if they can get people to pay $30k for a third motor, that would be quite the marketing feat.

 

[Diehard]

Most people don't hold their grudge that long.

Even though I am built to hold grudges, it takes too much energy especially against a big company that barely knows I exist. When Rivian raised the prices, I cancelled my reservation not because my feelings was hurt but because I thought a collective response may have a better chance of having an impact, and it did. They reinstated my reservation at original price.

When Ford offered me to order but said oops we don’t have the low trim you are interested in, how about a more expensive trim, I was not pleased with the games they were playing but did not cancel my reservation since I had already gotten my deposit back and there was no upside to cancelling. Later Ford offered me a deal I could not refused so I got it and now I am not under pressure for buying anything when I get the call from Tesla or GM, I will reevaluate based on the facts at the moment, make a decision. It is like chess, you can’t have a picture in your mind how the game is going to go before the first move and play the entire game based on that picture. Every move is a new game. Nov 30th is Tesla’s move. I still have the Rivian, Silverado and CT reservation. And don’t need any of them. Who knows, a new tech may make all of them obsolete in a few years.

Us drooling over these cars is like a teenager falling in love with a supermodel that will never know he exist. The relationship exist mostly in your head. All we are to these companies at most is a binary number on a server.

They have extremely efficient cognitive dissonance

That is the downside of owning the car and the stock at the same time. When you pay for M3 right before the price drops, as an owner, you are pissed that you overpaid but as a stock holder you are happy the sales number are not dropping too fast. The inner conflict is not for the faint of heart.

Once you see your first Cybertruck in the flesh you won’t be second guessing the MSRP. You will be thinking how can I adjust my finances or lifestyle to afford one.

Moral of the story; if you have not seen it yet, don’t look

Since when did Tesla become stupid? I don't think they have. And if you look at this chart, you eliminate 80% of the buyers at $100K for a vehicle. And down to $75k, you only add another 20% of the public. This is the whole reason a $25k car is so attractive. Look at how many people can afford it!

So how does introducing a BEV that 75-80% of the public can't afford move Tesla closer to their mission statement of converting the world to BEVs?

Let's look at the Q3 earnings call. EM said it would be 18 months or more before the CT contributed significantly to the positive cash flow at Tesla. Look at the MS and MX. Do they contribute significantly to the Tesla Cash Flow? Do you really think Tesla is going to spend this much money to build a truck that they only sell 5 digits in volume annually? Where does any of this make sense?

Am I saying there is absolutely no way this price is right? No, there is always a chance. But I don't see it as making sense to the company and its goals.

If Tesla is willing to be fluid with CT pricing like with other models, it can move along that chart depending on demand and production capacity. Instead of pissing reservation holders off by selling the same CT to some of them at higher price, they could have a performance version that cost $3K more to produce but is priced at $20K more (pulling these numbers out of my ….hat to make a point) and sell more of those while production capacity is low. Once demand runs out go with the standard version and high

I think we all need the put speculative Cybertruck pricing on hold for now. The 2024 Cybertruck reveal is just around corner.

‘You are not suggesting we do something constructive instead? Admin will suspend your account just for thinking that.

 

[cvalue13]

My only counter argument to that is that anyone who is buying "just" an extra motor to get a TM for $30k is a fool, especially seeing you won't get more pack anyway?

yeah, Model S plaid is currently only $15K more than base.

that said, the Plaid was originally $131K, while the LR trim below it was $95K - a $35K delta

so in the CT, the real question will be what else comes in the ‘performance’ package?

• The motors should mean it’s not only faster and more powerful, but that towing rating is better (since power assists in several of the tow rating calculation tests)
• Exclusive trim
• Premium wheel set standard
• other?

So while I agree that $30K strikes me as a big delta, I’ve often been surprised but what car companies can charge for either exclusivity (eg the exclusive trim) or add-ons (eg the premium wheels)

for example, with The Lightning, the price delta between the Lariat ER and Platinum trim was close to $13K, and all that got you was the badging, ‘upgraded leather’, massaging seats, larger rims, and - as a result of the added weight and and larger rims - a decrease in range by 6.25%.

And some people paid it!

Doubting my instincts here whether a $30K delta is unhinged (or if instead it’s buyers that can be unhinged)

 

[newwave1331]

What index measures this?

Coming soon: Tri-motor 500 mile cybertruck $233,850

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