Musk talks Cybertruck specs (0-60, vehicle weight) & production volume on Joe Rogan podcast interview (10/31/23)

[Jhodgesatmb]

There is no such thing as "Tesla glass" because Tesla uses the same glass suppliers, and the same glass specs, other makes use.

We have three Model 3's, all over 5 years old and with over 190,000 miles on them without a broken windshield. Driving on the same roads, both our Volvo and our Mazda got cracked windshields in the first year, the Volvo broke that replacement windshield in less than a year. It's really luck of the draw, not "Tesla glass" or "Volvo glass" that is the determining factor.

That said, if Tesla equips the Cybertruck with "metal glass" AKA "armor glass", like Elon indicated, then we would have a stronger glass than that on any standard production vehicle that I'm aware of, and it would be far less likely to crack from normal road hazards.

Fine with me. Yes, I assumed it was just (expensive) bad luck, like the 3 nails I got in my tires this past year. I guess I am a bit fatigued with bad luck.

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[FutureBoy]

That’s not the Tesla way. There are hardly any optional goodies between any models of any other vehicle they make. Options lead to variances in production line which lead to extra cost. They cut down or out options to keep production simple and quick.
Same will be with the CT. They’ll have battery and motor options between versions and that’s about it. Maybe a wheel or two.

I'm not so sure that the "Tesla way" as you describe it will 100% hold for the CT. In general I totally agree with your assessment as to how Tesla has been handling options on its vehicles.

However, for the CT, there are possible options that would be made FOR the CT as opposed to being part OF the CT.

For instance, the rectangular camper images that Tesla showed at the unveil. There is no reason that Tesla could not offer a camper/trailer device as an optional purchase for the CT. It would be a completely different production line and have no impact on the CT production line.

Similarly, the roof rack. Tesla has shown us a potential actual roof rack on the CT that was at the lithium refinery ground breaking ceremony. That rack also could be an option that would have 0 impact to the CT production line.

Remember, at the CT launch, there was the OPTION of buying the Cyberquad along with the CT. It would also be a separate option that does not impact the CT production line.

As for how these options might get delivered is a whole 'nother matter. If you order a Cyberquad, does it come with your CT loaded in the bed when you take delivery? Or does it get delivered (picked up) as a completely separate item?

And I'm not saying that any of these described options will or will not be available. Just that Tesla has expressed an interest in these options and they MAY actually sell some of them.

 

[newwave1331]

Nobody's said there's a 1000 lb. difference between trims. The VIN decoder indicates there may be one version that's between 8001 lbs. and 9000 lbs., and one version that's between 9001 lbs. and 10,000 lbs. CVWR.

That could mean that the difference of the two trims is anywhere between 1 lb., and 1999 lbs.

I drew my conclusion from Rogan/Elon podcast comments about the weight of cybertruck being added to the VIN GVWR info. Just trying to solve the puzzle before delivery event.

Rogan: How much does the cybertruck weight?
Elon: Ahhh it depends on the configuration but i dont know, its about 7000 pounds. There are several versions but 6 7 thousand pounds. Its its like similar to, its like a heavy duty truck
Rogan: like a f250 or something like that
Elon: Yeah

True, I inappropriately took this as 1000 pound difference in the low range to longest range versions considering batteries are the main weight difference and +1 motor. This was the first talk about 'curb' weight and I got excited, sorry.

Others have pointed out that options could also change the curb weight with different wheels/tires, and etc. I would think that optional wheels and midgate lol would be part of curb weight but things like a rooftop lightbar, tailgate ramp, winch, and shielded mini gun turret would just be considered payload if they were removable. My lack of real truck experience is starting to show but it seems like grey territory if an accessory is curb or cargo/payload.

If "removable accessories" count towards curb weight, and Elon just gave about a 1000 pound range, it could be one pack size with another motor and just loaded up with accessories.

Getting the weight of a cybertruck without pack and Cd would give us an idea of what's possible on range currently. Crr is another guestimate but based on what I've calculated for the Rivian's 21" road tire, they are about 10% higher than MX LR on 20s.

I might be starting to lose it. Can we talk about the mail?

 

[newwave1331]

The extra motor is only 150# or so. Batteries are probably 8.5# per kWhr at the pack level. So 745 extra for the Tri motor. WAG

Only 63 pounds between MX Dual and Tri. What's the other 87 pounds?

Is your 8.5lb per kWh usable or total capacity? As the pack gets bigger, the usable percentage goes down, right?

How are you accounting for the structural part of the pack? Is it constant no matter the cell count or variable. I took the Model Y 4680 structure with gen1 cells to back calculate a weight for the structure and non-cell components. I figure that there is some base structure weight with a variable component per cell weight. Llike the pink foam and electrical components would be part of the variable amount.

Rivian recently released their Max Pack and in house dual motor drivetrain, in which they switched cells and have a total of 149 kWh and 410 miles of range.
363 Wh/mi or 2.75 mi/kWh

The dual motor max pack is 149.6kWh total with a 143.1 kWh usable for 410 miles. Are range ratings distance over total capacity or usable? I thought it was usable, so 410/143.1 = 2.865 mi/kWh. Check out this podcast for more on Max Pack feedback. Sounds like they didn't really hit the 400+ mile "promise" considering you cant get quad motor max pack. They also lowered the peak power of the pack. Whole thing sounds fraudulent.

I agree that Tesla windshields seem to be particularly susceptible. I’m not sure if it’s the angle or the glass itself, but I certainly experienced more cracking in the M3 than other vehicles.

Ditto. I would love to see a stone hit the windshield at about 150 mph and just shake it off. Moose impact test. You know, where you just run into the moose and the windshield stops it from breaching the cabin.

Still need to see how Snell's law applies and if we hit a critical angle and how it effects the cameras. ? The main purpose of Tesla Armor Glass was to keep Semi from being sidelined from a crack windshield. I want that on cybertruck. I like roll down windows so just the windshield please. Well maybe the rear cabin window too (if it doesn't roll down) so cargo doesn't come through there from the vault in an accident.

? You're right... I've been talking/thinking towing so much lately that the "combined" thought is stuck in my head.

Thanks for the correction.

Can we talk about Pepe Silvia?!

Once FSD is complete, even if you don't buy FSD, all Tesla vehicles the standard included Autopilot should track nearby pedestrians

Elon Orwell Musk. I already thought about how Optimus AI mixed with FSD could be used in law enforcement for 'riot' control and monitoring. Ex. As police are driving through the streets of NYC, FSD maps the number of people, approximate height/weight and other identifying characteristics. Have this update the local dispatch intel and beam it to the police fleet by starlink/starshield and shows as data on the map. Skynet will soon follow.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I'm not so sure that the "Tesla way" as you describe it will 100% hold for the CT. In general I totally agree with your assessment as to how Tesla has been handling options on its vehicles.

However, for the CT, there are possible options that would be made FOR the CT as opposed to being part OF the CT.

For instance, the rectangular camper images that Tesla showed at the unveil. There is no reason that Tesla could not offer a camper/trailer device as an optional purchase for the CT. It would be a completely different production line and have no impact on the CT production line.

Similarly, the roof rack. Tesla has shown us a potential actual roof rack on the CT that was at the lithium refinery ground breaking ceremony. That rack also could be an option that would have 0 impact to the CT production line.

Remember, at the CT launch, there was the OPTION of buying the Cyberquad along with the CT. It would also be a separate option that does not impact the CT production line.

As for how these options might get delivered is a whole 'nother matter. If you order a Cyberquad, does it come with your CT loaded in the bed when you take delivery? Or does it get delivered (picked up) as a completely separate item?

And I'm not saying that any of these described options will or will not be available. Just that Tesla has expressed an interest in these options and they MAY actually sell some of them.

There is a fine line between company-installed accessories and accessories, but options are installed at the factory. I have no idea how Tesla will do it with the Cybertruck but historically their options are wheel types, seat colors, and paint colors, all of which would be factory installs. Performance trims have different suspension and brakes and those are also factory installs. Tesla recently started offering trunk motors on Model 3s and that is done at service centers. I suspect that they will go the same way with the items you mentioned.

 

[newwave1331]

There are so many technologies and components being built, developing or ramping. Its hard to know when to release a product that likily utilizes these. It will be a constant fight for more capital before you get to a point of profitability and ICE killing specs. Rome was not built in a day.

Knowing the expected starting production rate would be useful. We assumed starting 10/day on 1/1/2024 with 14% downtime for the projections in the other thread discussing production rates. If your number 500,XXX in line, it could be Q2 2027 before you get it (based on cookie crumb clues and guessimates). The millionth CT might come in 2029!

Sounds like some part of the line hit a max capacity limit that will take time/experience to address. Or Elon doesnt feel like explaining s-curves and tried to dumb it down for the pawns.

 

[kbolt]

Elon Orwell Musk. I already thought about how Optimus AI mixed with FSD could be used in law enforcement for 'riot' control and monitoring. Ex. As police are driving through the streets of NYC, FSD maps the number of people, approximate height/weight and other identifying characteristics. Have this update the local dispatch intel and beam it to the police fleet by starlink/starshield and shows as data on the map. Skynet will soon follow.

In the podcast Elon mentioned that he is is pro human life and not an extinctionist. He also talked about him attending the AI summit soon and thinking it shouldn't be programmed by extinctionists. So the chances of Optimus being allowed to be used as a law enforcement or military unit with a weapon is likely zero.

 

[newwave1331]

In the podcast Elon mentioned that he is is pro human life and not an extinctionist. He also talked about him attending the AI summit soon and thinking it shouldn't be programmed by extinctionists. So the chances of Optimus being allowed to be used as a law enforcement or military unit with a weapon is likely zero.

I still need to watch the rest of it. My heart stopped after the arrow test and weight conversation then I had to take my son out for treat or treat.

"The rocket worked perfectly, except for landing on the wrong planet." - Wernher von Braun

As cautious as Elon is on AI or whatever else he's working on, there could always be a whoops moment or someone with another plan. Sometimes the smartest people cant see the obvious due to there concentration in the detail of their work.

A lot of my old engineering classmates went to work for defense contractors. They told me that would never work on weapon systems, lol. Never? How long do you plan to work there? Smart people, dumb logic. Not judging the defense field, just their logic of not working on weapons. One was working on the F35 helmet targeting interface. I guess that wasn't a weapon technically.

 

[cvalue13]

I understand perfectly. Light racks. Tire variation, roof racks etc might be.a couple hundred pounds all together. The spread is mostly batteries.

there’s no battery spread

and you don’t understand the weight of some of the options that will be offered

see prior comment, unchanged

 

[anionic1]

I'm not entirely convinced 4680 production rate will be bottleneck. I've thrown some cybertruck production curves around based on Elon's Q3 comments and it seems slower than what is publicly being discussed for 4680. Not sure how yields are going on the cybercell or if production rates reset due to them changing the line over to the gen2 cell.

1000 lb difference can only be described (IMO) by ~70 lbs for tri motor vs dual and the rest on battery pack.

I feel like Panasonic announced a while back that they were ramping up 4680 cells and now they say they are scaling back battery production. With one of the most anticipated EVs about to hit the market, I don’t see how they could scale back if there was a supply shortage. The castings are the limiting factor. They currently have 2 gigapresses that limits them to at most 250k per year with very little down time.
The fact that he is aiming for 200k per year is a very good sign. It means we aren’t in low production, high cost model x/s territory. However this is their most complex and material heavy vehicle to date so if production numbers were equal it should cost more than the x/s IMO

 

[cvalue13]

That’s not the Tesla way. There are hardly any optional goodies between any models of any other vehicle they make. Options lead to variances in production line which lead to extra cost. They cut down or out options to keep production simple and quick.
Same will be with the CT. They’ll have battery and motor options between versions and that’s about it. Maybe a wheel or two.

Three things:

First, you're forgetting the Tesla ‘accessories’ team for the CT

Second, you’re failing to realize that those accessories will all be factory installed options, only - which puts them in the calc (some of them pretty heavy)

Third: there is not separate, heavier, pack for the ‘performance’ trim - identical pack, slightly less range (same as with the Model S vs Model S Plaid)

*this* above, is ‘the Tesla way’ as relates to the CT

 

[anionic1]

Yeah, the lighter the better (for range purposes), but what was the VIN decoder thing going on about H class and over 8,000 lbs, or did that include the hauling capacity combined with the vehicle weight?

It’s gross vehicle weight, which is everything. Vehicle and payload. It has to do with vehicle design for road and bridge loading.

 

[anionic1]

Three things:

First, you're forgetting the Tesla ‘accessories’ team for the CT

Second, you’re failing to realize that those accessories will all be factory installed options, only - which puts them in the calc (some of them pretty heavy)

Third: there is not separate, heavier, pack for the ‘performance’ trim - identical pack, slightly less range (same as with the Model S vs Model S Plaid)

*this* above, is ‘the Tesla way’ as relates to the CT

Who said those are factory installed options? You think your CT is going to be delivered with the roof rack on it? Or it will be unassembled? I think most of those accessories will be un assembled.

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