How much is FSD worth on a CT?

[Tinker71]

Putting aside a moment that it is still in Beta, I would contend:

1.) It is worth less than FSD on a car because the cost per passenger mile will be higher. (capital cost and operational efficiency)
2.) It is only worth as much as the best autopilot. We don't know how much the Tesla ride share app will cost so we can't calculate the value of level 5 FSD commercialization. Without the ride share app commercialization is unlikely. Will Tesla let a 3rd party do it? I doubt it so we have to trust that Tesla won't gouge on the ride share cut. (how has that worked for us?)

There will be times when the CT might be able to earn a rideshare premium such as off road requirements or larger cargo volume, but for day to day stuff it will be worth less.

I am a Tesla bull. They have the right approach, it is just a really hard problem. They will get there first, but in the mean time Tesla should just charge (or the maximum the consumer should pay) is the $6000 for advanced autopilot until the Tesla Rideshare App is released. Just saying.

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[Tiberius]

Having driven with FSD since 10.3 (over two years) and Enhanced Autopilot for five years, I'm not holding my breath for Tesla Rideshare, until long after my as yet unpurchased Cybertruck has been replaced.
I'm now in the "not paying money for this again" camp.
Enhanced Autopilot (EAP) is worth the current $6k, but even after two years and more changes in technology, FSD is not much closer than it was in 2021 and not worth the extra $$ over the cost of EAP.
Its definitely impressive, but its rate of improvement is slowing down, not speeding up.

 

[Tinker71]

Having driven with FSD since 10.3 (over two years) and Enhanced Autopilot for five years, I'm not holding my breath for Tesla Rideshare, until long after my as yet unpurchased Cybertruck has been replaced.
I'm now in the "not paying money for this again" camp.
Enhanced Autopilot (EAP) is worth the current $6k, but even after two years and more changes in technology, FSD is not much closer than it was in 2021 and not worth the extra $$ over the cost of EAP.
Its definitely impressive, but its rate of improvement is slowing down, not speeding up.

Spot on. As a stockholder I should shut up except I know when they eventually release the robo taxi app this will essentially release multi million unit fleet overnight. Call it 2 million units x $30000 each. Just in the USA. Even at just a couple % margin the numbers are staggering and it is absolutely repeating income each year. Nobody will be close.

 

[Tiberius]

Spot on. As a stockholder I should shut up except I know when they eventually release the robo taxi app this will essentially release multi million unit fleet overnight. Call it 2 million units x $30000 each. Just in the USA. Even at just a couple % margin the numbers are staggering and it is absolutely repeating income each year. Nobody will be close.

Gotta say that I don't see it like that, especially the multi million fleet overnight part.
There is almost zero chance of anything prior to HW3 being capable of robotaxi.
The chances of HW3 itself being robotaxi capable are extremely slim.
After that it's down to how close HW4 will get us before they find they really need HW5.
I'm sure they will get there, but I don't expect it to be with currently available hardware.
Also somewhat sure that HW3/4 can get FSD to reasonable L2, just not L4/5

 

[Woodrick]

My wife and I each have a Tesla. Both cars have FSD.

You may not think that it's worth it, but you'll die if you try to take it from my wife.

As is, it beats anything else on the road.

 

[Rutrow]

I'd put the value of FSD at the same value Tesla places on it at trade in. $3,900*. There isn't any depreciation of constantly updated software (it doesn't wear down or get old) so Tesla should add it's full value to cars with it vs. cars without, but they don't.

I've had FSD beta for years and rarely use it. My wife won't even let me use Tesla's Traffic Aware Cruise Control (TACC) because it drives like a jerk. It leaves too much room between cars (even at setting 2) in heavy traffic to keep EVERYONE from cutting you off. It reacts way too slow to cars ahead speeding up, and slows WAAAAY too abruptly to vehicles ahead slowing down or cutting in front.

Even though I've locked in the $7k FSD on my CyberTruck I don't know if I'll buy it. The only thing of value I find from Enhanced Auto-Pilot (EAP) is the auto lane change on turn signal. "Smart"-Summon is dumber than a 6 year old. Autopark is a joke, and Forward/Backward Summon has never come in truly handy. Just a slow party trick.

My dilemma is: If I were to swallow hard and pay $6k for EAP for the lane changes without having to constantly click out of Lane Keeping, would I forgo FSD for a mere $1000 more?!? ? IDK...

*source: https://www.carscoops.com/2023/07/t...driving-feature-that-costs-15000-in-new-cars/

 

[Tinker71]

I'd put the value of FSD at the same value Tesla places on it at trade in. $3,900*. There isn't any depreciation of constantly updated software (it doesn't wear down or get old) so Tesla should add it's full value to cars with it vs. cars without, but they don't.

I've had FSD beta for years and rarely use it. My wife won't even let me use Tesla's Traffic Aware Cruise Control (TACC) because it drives like a jerk. It leaves too much room between cars (even at setting 2) in heavy traffic to keep EVERYONE from cutting you off. It reacts way too slow to cars ahead speeding up, and slows WAAAAY too abruptly to vehicles ahead slowing down or cutting in front.

Even though I've locked in the $7k FSD on my CyberTruck I don't know if I'll buy it. The only thing of value I find from Enhanced Auto-Pilot (EAP) is the auto lane change on turn signal. "Smart"-Summon is dumber than a 6 year old. Autopark is a joke, and Forward/Backward Summon has never come in truly handy. Just a slow party trick.

My dilemma is: If I were to swallow hard and pay $6k for EAP for the lane changes without having to constantly click out of Lane Keeping, would I forgo FSD for a mere $1000 more?!? ? IDK...

*source: https://www.carscoops.com/2023/07/t...driving-feature-that-costs-15000-in-new-cars/

Thank you. I was not aware that Tesla gave any trade in allowance. $3900 is a decent figure. I like the Chevy and Ford pricing models better. It should really boil down to a monthly subscription with a discount for paying a year at a time.

 

[Tiberius]

My wife and I each have a Tesla. Both cars have FSD.

You may not think that it's worth it, but you'll die if you try to take it from my wife.

As is, it beats anything else on the road.

good point - and to clarify, I didn't say it wasn't good at what it does, its a really good L2 system and I use the heck out of it. I can see incremental improvement (plus the usual retrograde steps)
My Model 3 has FSD, my Cybertruck will definitely have at least EAP assuming they still offer it then.
But it is many years and different hardware away from turning into a robotaxi.

 

[Tinker71]

Gotta say that I don't see it like that, especially the multi million fleet overnight part.
There is almost zero chance of anything prior to HW3 being capable of robotaxi.
The chances of HW3 itself being robotaxi capable are extremely slim.
After that it's down to how close HW4 will get us before they find they really need HW5.
I'm sure they will get there, but I don't expect it to be with currently available hardware.
Also somewhat sure that HW3/4 can get FSD to reasonable L2, just not L4/5

By the time it is ready hw3 vehicles will age out. Due to the growth curve most Tesla will be on hw5. If I recall processing speed isn't the issue. The recent update with the parking assist is encouraging. V12 FSD looks pretty good to me from Elon's video a couple months ago. It should be a real leap.

 

[Tiberius]

By the time it is ready hw3 vehicles will age out. Due to the growth curve most Tesla will be on hw5. If I recall processing speed isn't the issue. The recent update with the parking assist is encouraging. V12 FSD looks pretty good to me from Elon's video a couple months ago. It should be a real leap.

Each to their own - I thought the last V12.1 video was another slight increment better than current shipping 11.4.9, but with extra issues added (like turning left out of a straight on lane)
Processing speed is totally an issue. HW3 was delivered with two CPUs for redundancy, but both are now fully utilized, so no more redundancy. HW4 &5 are not 2x or 3x more compute, so a significant step up is needed - and FSD is just L2. If we are struggling to get L2, where is the power for L5 going to come from?
If no shipping car has the compute or sensor suite for robotaxi, where will the mythical "millions" of overnight robotaxis come from?
This sounds much more like a cross fingers and hope rather than an actual technical analysis.

In terms of FSD value in relation to robotaxi - zero because in relation to current cars there is no link.
In terms of personal value to a car you buy today or next year? That's down to you - but it will never be a robotaxi.
For me, EAP does 95% of what I need and leaves behind all of the stuff that FSD is comically bad at, so that's what I'll be paying for.
To clarify - FSD means auto steer on city streets. Everything else is Enhanced Autopilot for 50% of the cost of FSD.

[edit]
For those comments - the thought occurred to me that you may not have driven much with FSD.
If not I would encourage trying it out personally. Its really very impressive, but definitely not anywhere near a robotaxi and quite scary at times

 

[DaveDUtah]

1.) It is worth less than FSD on a car because the cost per passenger mile will be higher. (capital cost and operational efficiency)
2.) It is only worth as much as the best autopilot. We don't know how much the Tesla ride share app will cost so we can't calculate the value of level 5 FSD commercialization.

Don't forget to factor in the cost of a new battery every year. Kim Java's neighbor used his model 3 as an Uber driver, supercharging twice a day. Killed the battery. Tesla said that is expected durability, and not covered by warranty.

 

[BayouCityBob]

Putting aside a moment that it is still in Beta, I would contend:

1.) It is worth less than FSD on a car because the cost per passenger mile will be higher. (capital cost and operational efficiency)
2.) It is only worth as much as the best autopilot. We don't know how much the Tesla ride share app will cost so we can't calculate the value of level 5 FSD commercialization. Without the ride share app commercialization is unlikely. Will Tesla let a 3rd party do it? I doubt it so we have to trust that Tesla won't gouge on the ride share cut. (how has that worked for us?)

There will be times when the CT might be able to earn a rideshare premium such as off road requirements or larger cargo volume, but for day to day stuff it will be worth less.

I am a Tesla bull. They have the right approach, it is just a really hard problem. They will get there first, but in the mean time Tesla should just charge (or the maximum the consumer should pay) is the $6000 for advanced autopilot until the Tesla Rideshare App is released. Just saying.

If one is buying FSD for the economic payback associated with ride-sharing, you have to assume it is worth zero in any Tesla. That said, I think you would find that only a vanishingly small number of current CT buyers would ever consider this. I would never rent out my vehicle for drunk college students to puke in. No.

OTOH, how much is an FSD equipped vehicle worth if it is able to drive you around if you are disabled (temporarily or permanently)? What if it can pickup and deliver a limited mobility relative or friend? How much would you pay for an FSD system if it reduces your likelihood of dying by car crash by 25% or 50% or 75%? What is it worth to do drone-like store pickups? (We have Turo robot pizza deliveries where I like so not too far-fetched.)

 

[Woodrick]

Don't forget to factor in the cost of a new battery every year. Kim Java's neighbor used his model 3 as an Uber driver, supercharging twice a day. Killed the battery. Tesla said that is expected durability, and not covered by warranty.

I'm pretty sure that even Uber drivers haven't had to replace a battery every year. Some of the highest mileage Model S are in worse than Uber use, Supercharge multiple times a day and had very few battery issues.

 

[cvalue13]

Spot on. As a stockholder I should shut up except I know when they eventually release the robo taxi app this will essentially release multi million unit fleet overnight. Call it 2 million units x $30000 each. Just in the USA. Even at just a couple % margin the numbers are staggering and it is absolutely repeating income each year. Nobody will be close.

you being a stockholder, I’m interested in your maths on valuing this to the company

because as a corporate value proposition, the robotaxi etc arguments have always been to me self-defeating from a corporate value proposition

Short version, the assertions of eg:

“we’ll [4]X the utility of each car, and we’ll make each car last 1M miles” means that now you’re not selling many cars ever again

Put differently, claims like the above together with Tesla’s claims re how many cars they’ll eventually sell every year are self-contradictory. Add up the numbers, and there aren’t that many new cars sold annually on the entire globe

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