How much is FSD worth on a CT?

[Tinker71]

you being a stockholder, I’m interested in your maths on valuing this to the company

because as a corporate value proposition, the robotaxi etc arguments have always been to me self-defeating from a corporate value proposition

Short version, the assertions of eg:

“we’ll [4]X the utility of each car, and we’ll make each car last 1M miles” means that now you’re not selling many cars ever again

Put differently, claims like the above together with Tesla’s claims re how many cars they’ll eventually sell every year are self-contradictory. Add up the numbers, and there aren’t that many new cars sold annually on the entire globe

I have no friggin clue. You are spot on about the self defeating business goals. Telsa valuations never add up as a car company. It is always about future growth like Omnibot, virtual power companies, Robotaxi etc.

I do think Tesla will build a huge reoccurring income stream on small transactions for virtual power, and robotaxi which may overtake their profit on autos.

The world is in transition and I have no clue how to invest in this AI and potentially robot assisted world which will bring about Universal basic income etc.

I figure Tesla will weather this better than most but? I bought most of my stock in 2019 and I have bought and sold a little for profit. I am already overweight in Tesla, So I won't buy anymore unless there is a major dip (that the market has over reacted to.)

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[DaveDUtah]

I'm pretty sure that even Uber drivers haven't had to replace a battery every year. Some of the highest mileage Model S are in worse than Uber use, Supercharge multiple times a day and had very few battery issues.

Well, anyone considering it should watch this first. Maybe it doesn't happen to EVERY Uber-used Tesla, but it happened to this one, and Tesla said that is an "expected" result and would not replace the battery at their cost. They first estimated $1000 to fix it, but when he brought it in and they diagnosed it, they said it would be $9000.

 

[Woodrick]

Well, anyone considering it should watch this first. Maybe it doesn't happen to EVERY Uber-used Tesla, but it happened to this one, and Tesla said that is an "expected" result and would not replace the battery at their cost. They first estimated $1000 to fix it, but when he brought it in and they diagnosed it, they said it would be $9000.

Luckily an engine has never been blown before in an ICE. Or wait, has it?

If it happens to a Tesla it's news.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

The value of FSD, if you reserved it, is the cost at the time of the reservation, so $7,000 for the first 250K RNs at least. If you don’t believe in FSD then it has no value. If you ordered an FS CT but never reserved FSD then you probably don’t believe in it but may be interested in resale value. In that case you have to count on whoever buys the CT being a believer.

 

[MilliVanilli]

Well, anyone considering it should watch this first. Maybe it doesn't happen to EVERY Uber-used Tesla, but it happened to this one, and Tesla said that is an "expected" result and would not replace the battery at their cost. They first estimated $1000 to fix it, but when he brought it in and they diagnosed it, they said it would be $9000.

LOL...nothing says "clickbait" better than a sensational headline combined with a thumbnail image showing poorly-acted extreme expressions. They look like they're in an elementary school play.

 

[CyberOwl]

The goal is to sell FSD software to other OEMs. The price is meant to set the bar. As soon as the first sale was made, Tesla lowered the price by 3k to their customers. Eventually Tesla will be selling FSD at a fraction of the price of other OEMs paying for their tech.

 

[Ward L]

I'd put the value of FSD at the same value Tesla places on it at trade in. $3,900*. There isn't any depreciation of constantly updated software (it doesn't wear down or get old) so Tesla should add it's full value to cars with it vs. cars without, but they don't.

I've had FSD beta for years and rarely use it. My wife won't even let me use Tesla's Traffic Aware Cruise Control (TACC) because it drives like a jerk. It leaves too much room between cars (even at setting 2) in heavy traffic to keep EVERYONE from cutting you off. It reacts way too slow to cars ahead speeding up, and slows WAAAAY too abruptly to vehicles ahead slowing down or cutting in front.

Even though I've locked in the $7k FSD on my CyberTruck I don't know if I'll buy it. The only thing of value I find from Enhanced Auto-Pilot (EAP) is the auto lane change on turn signal. "Smart"-Summon is dumber than a 6 year old. Autopark is a joke, and Forward/Backward Summon has never come in truly handy. Just a slow party trick.

My dilemma is: If I were to swallow hard and pay $6k for EAP for the lane changes without having to constantly click out of Lane Keeping, would I forgo FSD for a mere $1000 more?!? ? IDK...

*source: https://www.carscoops.com/2023/07/t...driving-feature-that-costs-15000-in-new-cars/

I was thinking of trading my 3 in for a Y last summer. Tesla offered $25k for my 2018 Model 3 with 50k miles, which was trade-in price with no credit for FSD. I would have had to pay $12k for FSD on the Y which seemed to say they were giving me $13k for my Model 3. FSD works really well when it works. It sucks when it doesn't work. Just as discussed above with traffic aware speed control. It goes bananas when it sees a right turn lane open up. Even with big arrows pointing to the left for through traffic, it goes into the right turn lane on certain city streets and again on an uncontrolled 4-lane highway. Add to Elon's comment about FSD not being a priority for the CT and you may never see FSD in the CT. Elon is one of the best sales people I know of.

 

[DaveDUtah]

LOL...nothing says "clickbait" better than a sensational headline combined with a thumbnail image showing poorly-acted extreme expressions. They look like they're in an elementary school play.

Yeah, that's pretty much standard fair for YouTube videos these days. But it doesn't mean the content isn't accurate.

 

[Woodrick]

Add to Elon's comment about FSD not being a priority for the CT and you may never see FSD in the CT.

NO ONE with any credibility has EVER said that FSD beta (which is what all the cars are currently running) won't appear in the Cybertruck.

They just have to collect a little data and wait for a software cycle and it WILL be there.

 

[Ward L]

NO ONE with any credibility has EVER said that FSD beta (which is what all the cars are currently running) won't appear in the Cybertruck.

They just have to collect a little data and wait for a software cycle and it WILL be there.

Don't mean to be snarky or nit-picky, but I did not say "beta". I said FSD. What is FULL SELF DRIVE to you? Level 2 or Level 5? IMO, I will never see Level 5 FSD in my FS CT I hope to receive in 2024.

 

[Woodrick]

Don't mean to be snarky or nit-picky, but I did not say "beta". I said FSD. What is FULL SELF DRIVE to you? Level 2 or Level 5? IMO, I will never see Level 5 FSD in my FS CT I hope to receive in 2024.

No Tesla has FSD today.
You were seemingly mixing up, or maybe getting others confused with your statement.

The Cybertruck will get the FSD beta soon.

The Cybertruck will get FSD, once it is available.

But veryspecifically Elon never said:

Add to Elon's comment about FSD not being a priority for the CT and you may never see FSD in the CT.

At least the portion pass the "and"

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

NO ONE with any credibility has EVER said that FSD beta (which is what all the cars are currently running) won't appear in the Cybertruck.

They just have to collect a little data and wait for a software cycle and it WILL be there.

Tesla/Elon live for autonomy. Anyone that thinks FSD won’t be deployed on the Cybertruck is living in their own fantasy world.

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