Cybertruck is almost sold out for 2024. Reservation conversion rate very encouraging (per Q4 2023 earnings call)

[jookyone]

Do you have a Vin number yet?

No VIN yet, ordered on 12/24 and I'm only seeing 12/8 still in the spreadsheet.

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[CyberT1]

No VIN yet, ordered on 12/24 and I'm only seeing 12/8 still in the spreadsheet.

I Reserved mine on 11/21/2019 and ordered it on 12/26/23 ow waiting for my Vin number.

 

[Bartman]

I doubt it, but if the bulk of members on this forum were only early adopters that might hold true. But numbers don't lie and here's the invited/ordered count to date

Agree with you here and elaborating on "improved the product." Now that we are tipped to the notion that FS series are likely the only models produced in 2024 then they are almost assuredly doing this to collect data for FSD on the CT/4WS/Drive by wire. They have no other way to collect enough data than to "force" all Cybertrucks on the road to have FSD by including it in the FS price.

If the "Take-Rate" was so darn great, why do they keep moving on to higher RN #s at such a high rate of speed? Yes, I know they are not going sequentially and have skipped over people, but why continue to move on to higher and higher RN #s? Since they are moving on to higher and higher RN #s, don't think the take rate on FS is that great. I'm RN # 112966xxx and I believe (in my own silly mind) that they will be sending out FS invites to RN #s that are up around my number by March or April, at the rate they are moving on to later RN #s. If they send out invites to people around my number, I have a chance to get an invite at that time.

 

[Lasttoy]

I remember an interview Sandy had with engineers, Jay had an interview. They all said, eventually 1 truck per minute is expected production. At this point, if u look at parking lot. They are about 4 cars an hour. 2024 might be sold out at any low production rate. Let's not jump to numbers exspatation just yet.

 

[HitchHiker71]

For anyone actually listening - Musk repeatedly said that CT production would be immaterial to Tesla financials in 2024 - that's code for very low production rates at a higher per unit price to help cover higher initial production costs (hence the FS variant). This was clear as day to me all along. Anyone who thinks any significant ramp will occur in 2024 is likely going to experience disappointment.

The overall narrative that Musk and others have repeatedly talked about is that building the CT has been very challenging and ramping a CT will be very challenging as a result. All of the actual commentary from multiple internal Tesla sources has repeatedly indicated that the CT is not like other mass production ramps - and therefore we should all temper expectations when making comparisons to any other vehicles that Tesla has brought to market with respect to production ramp. I'd be really surprised if anything north of 30k CTs were produced for all of 2024 with this in mind. Musk said production ramp would take roughly 12-18 months minimum. We all know Musk is an eternal optimist whenever he makes these kinds of predictions.

I also heard of couple of other noteworthy comments on the quarterly investors call yesterday with respect to the CT. One, the CT is not battery constrained - at least at this point in time - 4680 production is outpacing CT production - this indicates that it is the actual CT production that is most challenging and will be slower to ramp. Two, the CT is not a technology leading vehicle meant to foster new production methodologies for other mass production vehicles - for example it has no bearing on the upcoming mass market supposed $25k price point vehicle which will be using unboxed nextgen manufacturing methods never before seen (we shall see of course). Don't expect features unique to the CT to migrate into other mass production vehicles in other words - though they didn't explicitly mention which features they were referring to (48v? steer by wire? rear wheel steering? etc.).

 

[jookyone]

If the "Take-Rate" was so darn great, why do they keep moving on to higher RN #s at such a high rate of speed? Yes, I know they are not going sequentially and have skipped over people, but why continue to move on to higher and higher RN #s? Since they are moving on to higher and higher RN #s, don't think the take rate on FS is that great. I'm RN # 112966xxx and I believe (in my own silly mind) that they will be sending out FS invites to RN #s that are up around my number by March or April, at the rate they are moving on to later RN #s. If they send out invites to people around my number, I have a chance to get an invite at that time.

I'll put it another way. How many reservation holders do you think regularly visit or belong to this forum? Someone else on this forum reminded us that each "tranch" of reservations (RN11274, RN11275, RN11276, RN11277, etc) contains 10k reservations across all Tesla models. It's widely estimated that for the 2-3 days following the announcement 11/21/2019 that 90% ish were Cybertrucks (Allegedly there were 250k in 5 days.) and then a trickle in the following months/years. That would be 25 tranches in 5 days. So far they've tapped 12-ish tranches for FS invites just for this forum. The total number of reservations on this forum is now over 1,000. Knowing that 90% of the 12k possible reservations (which we know aren't all Cybertrucks) 1000 orders of 10,800 is about 10% and that's even using fuzzy math and giving all credit to CT for that first 2-3 days which is at best fuzzy math.
Take it with a grain of salt, but I'd like to see a better calculation or guess.

Cheers!

 

[sylvius]

I'll put it another way. How many reservation holders do you think regularly visit or belong to this forum? Someone else on this forum reminded us that each "tranch" of reservations (RN11274, RN11275, RN11276, RN11277, etc) contains 10k reservations across all Tesla models. It's widely estimated that for the 2-3 days following the announcement 11/21/2019 that 90% ish were Cybertrucks (Allegedly there were 250k in 5 days.) and then a trickle in the following months/years. That would be 25 tranches in 5 days. So far they've tapped 12-ish tranches for FS invites just for this forum. The total number of reservations on this forum is now over 1,000. Knowing that 90% of the 12k possible reservations (which we know aren't all Cybertrucks) 1000 orders of 10,800 is about 10% and that's even using fuzzy math and giving all credit to CT for that first 2-3 days which is at best fuzzy math.
Take it with a grain of salt, but I'd like to see a better calculation or guess.

Cheers!

While a guess, I think yours is a pretty reasonable guess. It also assumes that the ~1000 orders here are all of the orders. In reality, it could be anywhere from 10-90% (and probably closer to 10 than 90). If they can really achieve a conversion rate north of 10% (and very potentially above 20%) on a $20k upcharge on a truck first reserved 4 years ago and costing $80-100k before the upcharge, that's pretty remarkable. I highly doubt the conjectures that they are going to offer FS to every single reservation holder this year. I think they will sell out of the year's production capacity long before that (and probably before they offer it to everyone who reserved in the first 5 days).

 

[Coolbreeze704]

IF this truly the most disappointing thing that has ever happened to you, then;
1.) You can't be all that old. Life sucks. Get used to it.
2.) You've never been married.
3.) You've never had kids.
4.) Your work life has been very sheltered.
5.) Your knowledge of politics is limited.
6.) You are putting WAY too much emphasis on a vehicle.
7.) You must have no life.

I can name a few thousand events far more disappointing than this, and they all cost me more than $100. Your belief that Tesla has been "screwing you over and blowing you off" sounds a lot like you are taking this all too personal. Tesla ain't done a thing to YOU personally. They are doing business, making business decisions, and conducting a business. If they could execute everything faster and cheaper and make more while doing it, I have NO doubt they would have. But, like most of us, they are peddling as fast as they can. Unlike the legacy OEMs, my perception of the Tesla employees is one of a group that is mostly united behind a company and its mission. And I haven't seen a single event in any of their history that I would even suspect is directed on a single customer. There was a decision at a very high level as to the roll out of the FS CT. For some unknown reason, you and a whole lot of other people haven't been selected yet. And while we are on the reservation topic, please re-read (or read for the first time) your pre-purchase agreement. Nowhere in there is there a commitment that they will go through the list in ANY particular order related to your reservation number. WE have built that narrative, not Tesla. You are claiming disappointment in a commitment they never made. You have a single sided agreement in mind that they aren't a party to. Sorry, but that is the truth.

Now this was truly a

 

[Bartman]

I'll put it another way. How many reservation holders do you think regularly visit or belong to this forum? Someone else on this forum reminded us that each "tranch" of reservations (RN11274, RN11275, RN11276, RN11277, etc) contains 10k reservations across all Tesla models. It's widely estimated that for the 2-3 days following the announcement 11/21/2019 that 90% ish were Cybertrucks (Allegedly there were 250k in 5 days.) and then a trickle in the following months/years. That would be 25 tranches in 5 days. So far they've tapped 12-ish tranches for FS invites just for this forum. The total number of reservations on this forum is now over 1,000. Knowing that 90% of the 12k possible reservations (which we know aren't all Cybertrucks) 1000 orders of 10,800 is about 10% and that's even using fuzzy math and giving all credit to CT for that first 2-3 days which is at best fuzzy math.
Take it with a grain of salt, but I'd like to see a better calculation or guess.

Cheers!

So they've gone in to the 10th and 11th, or so "tranch", and we know a super high % of those RN #s are Cybertrucks. So it would seem Tesla should be good for a while now, right? What's that, about 100K RN#s, mostly Cybertrucks? And with a notional FS 10% take rate, with just that, they would probably be sold out for at least what they can produce this year, right? But I don't see any people posting delivery estimates, on AWD trucks, for November or December, so that's not it. Obviously, from that big pool, there are reservations from people all over the county and if the "take-rate" is this high, there's no need to keep going in to progressively higher tranches, for quite a while. So, if they keep progressing to higher tranches, you'll know it's because the FS take-rate is isn't "all that". That being said, at some point they are going to have to circle back to the beginning, or invite the "whole non-taker FS invite pool" at once, to give the same folks an opportunity to order the non-FS series trucks, and we'll have to see how many more people become Taker's at a lower price.

 

[dandor]

For anyone actually listening - Musk repeatedly said that CT production would be immaterial to Tesla financials in 2024 - that's code for very low production rates at a higher per unit price to help cover higher initial production costs (hence the FS variant). This was clear as day to me all along. Anyone who thinks any significant ramp will occur in 2024 is likely going to experience disappointment.

People are making irrational guesses here all the time. The battery constraint hypothesis many people here had, is now proven to be false. People are looking at Model Y production as a model for the Cybertruck. The Cybertruck is a completely different beast, pun intended, than any car they made before. Lots of new technology that needs to be tested. I expect 2024 production to be 10,000 to 20,000 units. We are beta testers for steer-by-wire, powershare, 48-volt architecture, and even autopilot for this new vehicle.

Using VIN information is useless as well. Just because a VIN is made, doesn't mean the car even started production. They could make 1000 VIN's and not start production for weeks. VIN's assigned does not equal production.

 

[Chris9702L]

For anyone actually listening - Musk repeatedly said that CT production would be immaterial to Tesla financials in 2024 - that's code for very low production rates at a higher per unit price to help cover higher initial production costs (hence the FS variant). This was clear as day to me all along. Anyone who thinks any significant ramp will occur in 2024 is likely going to experience disappointment.

The overall narrative that Musk and others have repeatedly talked about is that building the CT has been very challenging and ramping a CT will be very challenging as a result. All of the actual commentary from multiple internal Tesla sources has repeatedly indicated that the CT is not like other mass production ramps - and therefore we should all temper expectations when making comparisons to any other vehicles that Tesla has brought to market with respect to production ramp. I'd be really surprised if anything north of 30k CTs were produced for all of 2024 with this in mind. Musk said production ramp would take roughly 12-18 months minimum. We all know Musk is an eternal optimist whenever he makes these kinds of predictions.

I also heard of couple of other noteworthy comments on the quarterly investors call yesterday with respect to the CT. One, the CT is not battery constrained - at least at this point in time - 4680 production is outpacing CT production - this indicates that it is the actual CT production that is most challenging and will be slower to ramp. Two, the CT is not a technology leading vehicle meant to foster new production methodologies for other mass production vehicles - for example it has no bearing on the upcoming mass market supposed $25k price point vehicle which will be using unboxed nextgen manufacturing methods never before seen (we shall see of course). Don't expect features unique to the CT to migrate into other mass production vehicles in other words - though they didn't explicitly mention which features they were referring to (48v? steer by wire? rear wheel steering? etc.).

Not true, even Sandy Monroe commented you need all the fancy stuff (48v, steer by wire) to achieve the unboxed method.

 

[jookyone]

While a guess, I think yours is a pretty reasonable guess. It also assumes that the ~1000 orders here are all of the orders. In reality, it could be anywhere from 10-90% (and probably closer to 10 than 90). If they can really achieve a conversion rate north of 10% (and very potentially above 20%) on a $20k upcharge on a truck first reserved 4 years ago and costing $80-100k before the upcharge, that's pretty remarkable. I highly doubt the conjectures that they are going to offer FS to every single reservation holder this year. I think they will sell out of the year's production capacity long before that (and probably before they offer it to everyone who reserved in the first 5 days).

Thank you! You get it. 10% is nearly impossible it's likely higher for first day reservations. Kudos to the forum owner if they've captured 90% of reservation holders. I've been in data science for awhile, long before it was cool. I trust my instincts on this one. FYI My estimate for year one is 20,000 CTs delivered.
Everyone after the first 5 days is a "casual" and I expect take rates to drop until the non-Foundation Series are being sold when the price returns to normal.

 

[DMC-81]

Great discussion on production versus reservation estimates.

To add to the information on tranches of reservations, I have an email from Tesla that referred to my January 9, 2020 RN1132xxx number as an “Early Cybertruck reservation”.

Based on this discussion, it’s anyone’s guess if that translates to a 2024, 2025 (or later) invitation to configure.

 

[Sousray]

Are people with 11276XXXX reservations that were straight up skipped allowed to be pissed yet?

Mine 112745xxx was skipped. So where does that put me?

 

[cvalue13]

Estimates right now are 50-100 per day based on drone footage.

are they still plying that ‘estimate’ method over on xwitter ?

xwitter a race to the bottom

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