90% cancellation/postponement rate?

[CyberFitch]

YOLO
I can see you now...'pole' position!
THE FLYING FITCH

Lolol the flying fitch. I might have that added to the CT

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[CyberFitch]

Yeah that could be true. I see a lot of first time Tesla folks on here which is exciting but then it doesn’t fit the idea you proposed. I have solar roof, power walls and this will be my 4th Tesla. So I would fit the idea.

Without going back and looking at your original post, didn’t you state that you, your brother and friends all reserved a ct about the same time. Or maybe that was someone else. If it was you I was assuming that you were an owner and the others were not.

 

[EmJay]

Without going back and looking at your original post, didn’t you state that you, your brother and friends all reserved a ct about the same time. Or maybe that was someone else. If it was you I was assuming that you were an owner and the others were not.

Solid memory. Yeah, of the group of us only one friend has a Tesla and it’s a nose cone MS. I’ve got the whole Tesla house on the block.

 

[Crissa]

I'm not sure why anyone would expect a high conversion rate for a special edition truck that's $20k more on top of already being $30k more.

-Crissa

 

[Deleted member 8371]

FWIW, I got the FS invite on 3/1 and configured my beast on 3/9 (wanted to get to Denver to see one in person before spending the $1,000).

I find it ridiculous There are no test drives. People should be allowed to sit in and even test drive the type of vehicle that they’re going to put money down on. with all the problems that are going on there should be vehicles in house to sit in and test drive.

 

[SwampNut]

I bought an R1T Launch Edition a few days ago and cancelled both CTs. Rivian gave me a 45 minute drive, and then the dealer that had the used LE gave me an option to drive.

 

[AverageLogic]

I bought an R1T Launch Edition a few days ago and cancelled both CTs. Rivian gave me a 45 minute drive, and then the dealer that had the used LE gave me an option to drive.

Awesome, thx! Now I’m two steps closer to getting my invite!

 

[SwampNut]

Rivian makes a nice truck. Its the company's survivability that scares me. They are burning 6B cash a year and loosing money on every vehicle sale. stock is down 65% YTD. Can they get the new models to market fast enough to avoid bankruptcy?

They are pretty strongly needed by Amazon, and overall, I really just don't care. It's gonna be what it will be. Not willing to drive ICE, not willing to keep life on hold by not having a truck. It is what it is.

Also, it blows away the luxury of the M3LR we traded in. It's BMW luxury (and we traded a $75k BMW for the M3LR).

 

[anionic1]

I think a LOT of people impulse dropped $100 for a place in line to get the truck. The whole world has changed since November 2019 so it's understanding there's lots of cancelations.

Right and its priced at $100k. Not the $49k dual motor most people ordered back then. That's a 100% increase. The majority of people wont pay for a $100k vehicle. For 99% of people its not a wise financial decision to spend that much on a vehicle as its a depreciating asset. Its fun, but not necessarily wise.

 

[anionic1]

I agree your math is likely pretty close. I was thinking along the same lines, using the same logic.

I bet once the number drops to $80k and the tax credit kicks in and gets this closer to a $70k vehicle. That acceptance rate will quickly increase to closer to 30% to 40%.

 

[Gilbertus]

I'd expect reservation to order conversion rates to drop the deeper Tesla gets into the list as the most ardent fans ordered in the first few minutes, hours and days. Weeks to months later? Eh, sure I'll drop in a reservation.

I placed a Dec 2019 reservation for a $50K dual motor thinking that was the best value in the unveil lineup. Now? That same dual-motor Cybertruck is literally twice the price, wow.

With sticky high interest rates (that may go even higher before they start dropping) and prices that are much, much, higher I'm not at all surprised at the conversion rates. Also the deeper we get into the production ramp the closer we get to the end of the Foundation Series so for those of us who question the $20K upcharge and don't mind waiting another few months after 4.5 years it's perfectly expected to have growing pass rates on Foundation Series.

In the nearly five years that will pass for many of us who placed reservations, there are a large number of other EV's which have been launched which are increasingly compelling, especially once NACS ports proliferate in Model Year 2025. We also know Tesla, and prices will fall in the future. So that $80K dual motor, once it's available, probably drops to $70K by late 2025 and even $60K in 2026.

Me? I picked up a used Model S Plaid from the Tesla Used store almost exactly a year ago. It's worth ~$50-60K today. Is the Foundation Series dual motor twice the vehicle of my Plaid? I'm not so sure. Might as well wait until the first price cut, which we know to be $80K, and which we also know will hit later this year.

But,.... As I understand, buying or ordering a CT now, you'll get it in 10-20 years.

 

[Gilbertus]

If someone didn’t order FS doesn’t mean they cancelled their reservation. That’s the big incorrect variable to add to the equation while doing the math, and no matter how you do the math, Tesla has enough orders in hand to produce CT for at least 2 years. Demand is the last thing they have to worry for Cybertruck. Elon has mentioned this multiple times. I just hope they reduce the AWD prices after FS, and not make more profit because of continued demand.

Two years?

Tesla Canada in Langley said, they have now 3.000.000 orders for the CT. That would mean since the first deliveries 1.000.000 new orders. If 50% of all orders would be cancel there would still be 1.500.000. At a rate (when ?) like Elon said of 150.000 a year, the last order will be fulfilled in 10 years.

 

[carsly]

Two years?

Tesla Canada in Langley said, they have now 3.000.000 orders for the CT. That would mean since the first deliveries 1.000.000 new orders. If 50% of all orders would be cancel there would still be 1.500.000. At a rate (when ?) like Elon said of 150.000 a year, the last order will be fulfilled in 10 years.

For orders placed many years ago I suspect the reservation to fulfillment rate is going to be ~10% at best, make your own best guesstimate, as time has passed and people have acquired other vehicles in the interim and/or are part of the group that is going to wait until the end of time for announcement specs/pricing. They are probably also waiting for their Plaid+ reservations to be fulfilled. Good luck with that.

More recent (post-delivery date) may fall into the camps of (1) speculators hoping to catch the Cyber gold rush of resale or (2) people with genuine interest to buy in 1-2 years. Maybe there the reservation to order fulfillment rate reaches 25-30%.

Keep in mind there is the camp of people placing pre-orders on everything "just in case" - Volvo EX90, Polestar 3, Macan EV, Hummer EV, Rivian R2, Cybertruck, etc. Of course these people aren't buying 6-8 vehicles a year so they cancel most of their reservations, if not all of them, when the time comes.

My question comes back to the "Delivery 2024" that was on the Cybertruck order page on delivery day and for a while thereafter. Do regular (non-Foundation) orders placed in late 2023 actually get fulfilled this year, 2024? If so, the 2MM reservations probably didn't mean much except providing some free, multi-year, financing for Tesla's operations.

I'd like to have a $200MM float for 3-4 years at no interest!

 

[Gilbertus]

I find it ridiculous There are no test drives. People should be allowed to sit in and even test drive the type of vehicle that they’re going to put money down on. with all the problems that are going on there should be vehicles in house to sit in and test drive.

I agree that I would love to test drive too. But with 3 mill. preorders how many test drive demands this would generate? Or do you have an idea how to manage this ? The CT in your Tesla Center would be booked 24/7 for at least the next 2 years.

 

[CyberTruckeeTheOne]

FWIW - I was traveling the first week in April, and there was a Delivery Center across from my hotel near Atlanta.

I went in to see if they could find anything interesting in the CRM on my order (they couldn't). But when I was leaving the guy made a comment - "you'll probably get a VIN sooner than you expect, we're getting a lot of cancelations". Then another guy made a comment along the lines of people not qualifying for the loan price, and they both started laughing (it didn't seem that funny, but whatever). They told me 2 of the 3 CTs they had getting prepped right then were not going to the original order holder because of this.

Just one small data point, but I think you're probably right.

Except typical tech guy in the Bay Area, there are not many people whose income and credit score will will qualify for the $110K Cybertruck.

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