90% cancellation/postponement rate?

[Deleted member 8371]

I agree that I would love to test drive too. But with 3 mill. preorders how many test drive demands this would generate? Or do you have an idea how to manage this ? The CT in your Tesla Center would be booked 24/7 for at least the next 2 years.

Set up a schedule for the area where they deliver them. Like many people, I would just like to sit in and drive around the dealership or something; my place would be in KOP, PA. I have bought many cars, and I have at least sat in all of them and got the feeling of the car. I am getting close to my number (it doesn't mean anything ). I was told I just need to take it or not, and I have decided while writing this that I will let mine go. I may wait for 2ND GEN, Maybe. I have a 2017 S bought new and I love Tesla, but this truck seems unlucky.

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[Cybertruck26]

Except typical tech guy in the Bay Area, there are not many people whose income and credit score will will qualify for the $110K Cybertruck.

My Milpitas brother is 100% correct... I can't afford to own a house here, but I can afford a Cybertruck lol

 

[Cyber Man]

Two years?

Tesla Canada in Langley said, they have now 3.000.000 orders for the CT. That would mean since the first deliveries 1.000.000 new orders. If 50% of all orders would be cancel there would still be 1.500.000. At a rate (when ?) like Elon said of 150.000 a year, the last order will be fulfilled in 10 years.

Yeah 2 years might be very optimistic. I expect more than 50% cancellation though, and I expect ramp up to happen significantly as well. One of the important design aspects of Cybertruck is to reduce the assembly build time. I think Tesla is trying to not rush right now to avoid quality issues. Look at how media is trashing the current quality though there are so many owners who are happy with the current build. Once Tesla has flushed out these initial build issues, I expect significant ramp up curve. Hope they will be able to fulfill all active orders in next 3-4 years.

 

[Cyber Man]

I agree that I would love to test drive too. But with 3 mill. preorders how many test drive demands this would generate? Or do you have an idea how to manage this ? The CT in your Tesla Center would be booked 24/7 for at least the next 2 years.

I agree! It infuriates me that we cannot test drive CT, but I can see why Tesla doesn’t want people to test drive. They don’t want more orders in hand. 3 million is a lot of orders. Even if 80% to 85% cancel, that’s still more than half a million serious buyers. It’ll take them 2-3 years to fulfill all those orders. Now imagine if they get another one million serious buyers. These buyers will have to wait for 5-6 years to get their vehicle. It’ll do more harm than good for Tesla.

 

[Scribbious]

If Tesla and my insurance company would agree, I'd be happy to give test drives (with me in the truck) in exchange for some referral points.

 

[Cybertruck2024]

For orders placed many years ago I suspect the reservation to fulfillment rate is going to be ~10% at best, make your own best guesstimate, as time has passed and people have acquired other vehicles in the interim and/or are part of the group that is going to wait until the end of time for announcement specs/pricing. They are probably also waiting for their Plaid+ reservations to be fulfilled. Good luck with that.

More recent (post-delivery date) may fall into the camps of (1) speculators hoping to catch the Cyber gold rush of resale or (2) people with genuine interest to buy in 1-2 years. Maybe there the reservation to order fulfillment rate reaches 25-30%.

Keep in mind there is the camp of people placing pre-orders on everything "just in case" - Volvo EX90, Polestar 3, Macan EV, Hummer EV, Rivian R2, Cybertruck, etc. Of course these people aren't buying 6-8 vehicles a year so they cancel most of their reservations, if not all of them, when the time comes.

My question comes back to the "Delivery 2024" that was on the Cybertruck order page on delivery day and for a while thereafter. Do regular (non-Foundation) orders placed in late 2023 actually get fulfilled this year, 2024? If so, the 2MM reservations probably didn't mean much except providing some free, multi-year, financing for Tesla's operations.

I'd like to have a $200MM float for 3-4 years at no interest!

I've place around 10 reservation deposits on new vehicles and I have only converted 1 to order at this time (Lightning). I assure you there's a ton of people like me, and with the CT, a lot of people placed multiple $100 deposits. You can see this is the case on various Tesla forums and Discords. Some people placed multiple to pump the stock, some for resale, some did one in each trim. This is a great point, I bet at least a quarter of the reservations can be discounted based on this approach. A $100 refundable deposit is such a small inconvenience to potentially be at the front of the line for a new vehicle, why not place it on all of them?

 

[AverageLogic]

My Milpitas brother is 100% correct... I can't afford to own a house here, but I can afford a Cybertruck lol

Now here’s a sentiment I share fo’ sure. I do own a very small, older house, with shared wall, in a 55+ community. It’s adequate and we’re happy enough. I do recognize that vehicles depreciate while real estate appreciates. Regardless, I’m of an age and income bracket that I’m 100% certain I will never be able to afford to purchase a nice house in my region (San Diego County) in my lifetime. I’m willing to make the unwise decision to purchase, from cash savings, the CT in favor of the dream home, and even bend for the FS, as the largest, fun, irrational and bonkers purchase I’ll ever make in my life. Life’s too short to do otherwise.

 

[Cybertruck26]

Now here’s a sentiment I share fo’ sure. I do own a very small, older house, with shared wall, in a 55+ community. It’s adequate and we’re happy enough. I do recognize that vehicles depreciate while real estate appreciates. Regardless, I’m of an age and income bracket that I’m 100% certain I will never be able to afford to purchase a nice house in my region (San Diego County) in my lifetime. I’m willing to make the unwise decision to purchase, from cash savings, the CT in favor of the dream home, and even bend for the FS, as the largest, fun, irrational and bonkers purchase I’ll ever make in my life. Life’s too short to do otherwise.

Here in the Bay Area, a crappy Chinese built 1200 sqft townhome (with NO yard or grass), and a tandem/narrow garage, will cost you about $1.3-1.7M. That doesn't include the $300-600/month HOA or the $10k-12k/year taxes. I will get the truck I want, I don't need to be a slave to a home I'll never be able to afford to leave. If it weren't for my job, I would NEVER EVER EVER live in the Bay Area. In the end, gotta do you... nobody else will matter in the end.

Updated: Ah... you're in Cali, you definitely understand lol

 

[TeslaFan92]

I placed my CT order on hold after I got my invite and put 1k down on it. Way too many bugs right now.
But I did pull the trigger on a new model Y to hold me over tik the CT is down to 80k and all the links worked out.

 

[Freemarket]

A friend of mine, who based on the CTOC estimator told me he was around 283,000 in wait. Today, “ Hilarious. The day I pickup the S I get offered the cybertruck foundation and delivery in 60 days or less. Coincidence…”

Interesting data point.

In the end, I don’t really care what the take rates are on FS CT. I am really enjoying mine and am fine to have paid another 20k to get it now and experience it!

 

[ThaDon]

A friend of mine, who based on the CTOC estimator told me he was around 283,000 in wait. Today, “ Hilarious. The day I pickup the S I get offered the cybertruck foundation and delivery in 60 days or less. Coincidence…”

Interesting data point.

In the end, I don’t really care what the take rates are on FS CT. I am really enjoying mine and am fine to have paid another 20k to get it now and experience it!

this is very telling

 

[Cybertruck2024]

I placed my CT order on hold after I got my invite and put 1k down on it. Way too many bugs right now.
But I did pull the trigger on a new model Y to hold me over tik the CT is down to 80k and all the links worked out.

When did you do this? Did they say you're in the back of the line?

Seems like it's hit or miss with not losing your $1k.

 

[Freemarket]

this is very telling

And he just said he won’t buy it. Going to hold out for the GX550. Also stated that 4 1/2 years ago, he expected it to be $50k, which was the model he chose.

I can definitely start to see how there has likely been a lot of fall out on reservations. If his calculator at 283,000 is remotely accurate, it’s like a 5-7% order rate at this point for FS CT. ?

If true, I’d expect the end of FS to be coming quickly. End of year at least, if not far sooner. We’ll see.

 

[Mini2nut]

We may find out more FS info during the Q1 earnings call tomorrow.

 

[Crissa]

I find it ridiculous There are no test drives.

Tesla has never needed them before during ramp.

And it's not unusual for there to not be test drives for pre-ordered or low-availability vehicles to not be offered as test drives.

-Crissa

(Yes, it does suck. But that's how it is when there's fewer units than buyers.)

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