Production rate theory

[TMS16]

I had my VIN removed from my account on 3/6/24 due to damage in shipment.

I received that VIN on 2/22/24

Today (3/8/24) I got another VIN that is 976 higher than it was 16 days ago.

That sounds to me that production could be at or over 2000 a month rate now.

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[Mini2nut]

I predict roughly 25k-30k trucks in 2024.

 

[agordon117]

I had my VIN removed from my account on 3/6/24 due to damage in shipment.

I received that VIN on 2/22/24

Today (3/8/24) I got another VIN that is 976 higher than it was 16 days ago.

That sounds to me that production could be at or over 2000 a month rate now.

The vins are pretty far out of order though. Having said that, my guess is that we have been seeing a production rate averaging ~57 trucks per day between 2/29 and 3/6. 3/7 and 3/8 had much lower numbers of trucks in the flyovers.

My guess adds up to about 1700 per month, starting at 2/29.

So even with the vins being decently out of order, we're pretty close. Unfortunately the data isn't settled yet for the previous 7 days (I've updated what has changed since yesterday, but I expect it to change again), and I suspect when it does settle, we will see a pretty big gap between vin assignments and outbound (more trucks in outbound than extrapolated vins assigned) due to the line jumpers. That seems to have started also around 2/29.

 

[evnow]

I predict roughly 25k-30k trucks in 2024.

I think this is the consensus estimate now - Troy included.

My guess adds up to about 1700 per month, starting at 2/29.

If we assume 15k FS, that’s about 7 months of production- so I expect all AWD FS to be delivered this year. Then may be they will switch to Beasts and start general Beast deliveries before starting general AWD deliveries.

 

[Sjohnson20]

my production rate theory is it’s slow as F!

 

[Bartman]

I think this is the consensus estimate now - Troy included.



If we assume 15k FS, that’s about 7 months of production- so I expect all AWD FS to be delivered this year. Then may be they will switch to Beasts and start general Beast deliveries before starting general AWD deliveries.

Before the close of 2024, to make for better 2024 numbers, I predict Tesla will open up allowing people to configure their NON-FS Cybertrucks...

 

[g7bupw9z]

Elon Musk mocked Rivian for only delivering 57K vehicles in 2023 while Tesla is struggling to produce 1K CTs a month even though production technically started 60 days ago.

At this point it will be remarkable if Tesla can deliver 15K trucks for all of 2024.

Despite 10 years of experience Tesla continues to struggle with production ramp more than other automakers.

Not really.

The saying 'past performance is not indicative of future results' is very relevant here. Future outcomes can be much more dramatic than simple linear growth or decline. Exponential changes, either positive or negative, are a possibility we need to consider.

 

[cofree]

So it sounds like at the moment Tesla is net producing at 50 or so per day, and about 6 from the spreadsheet here, but ramping up.
So if you place an order now, at that rate, it would take a little over 200 days for delivery. This is assuming that the beasts start delivering in significant numbers in that 200 day period and catch up to the non-beasts.
Now of course if Tesla is able to double production rate then we get down to 100 days. If I were Tesla I would probably gate sending invites out based on the expected production queue length.. and probably keep it under 100 days. Trying to reason that far is pretty much just speculation, hwoever.

 

[cgladue]

I predict roughly 25k-30k trucks in 2024.

do you have a delivery date yet ?

 

[agordon117]

So it sounds like at the moment Tesla is net producing at 50 or so per day, and about 6 from the spreadsheet here, but ramping up.
So if you place an order now, at that rate, it would take a little over 200 days for delivery. This is assuming that the beasts start delivering in significant numbers in that 200 day period and catch up to the non-beasts.
Now of course if Tesla is able to double production rate then we get down to 100 days. If I were Tesla I would probably gate sending invites out based on the expected production queue length.. and probably keep it under 100 days. Trying to reason that far is pretty much just speculation, hwoever.

How fast they will ramp is a big unknown, but the longer it takes, the more extreme the ramp has to be to change the numbers dramatically. I made a post in another thread talking about exactly this

https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...-delivery-chart-national-map-🗺️.12386/page-30

I'm guessing the january orders are going to be the ones that are missed by the largest amount unfortunately. Invitations ramped down significantly and production will ramp up, just not fast enough to deliver all december and early january orders by march 31st, or likely even by april 31st.

 

[cgladue]

also remember that Q2 they are supposed to be bringing a second shift online so they will be making trucks twice as long each day then they are now too.

 

[agordon117]

also remember that Q2 they are supposed to be bringing a second shift online so they will be making trucks twice as long each day then they are now too.

Knowing tesla, Q2 really means end of Q3

 

[cofree]

I'm guessing the january orders are going to be the ones that are missed by the largest amount unfortunately. Invitations ramped down significantly and production will ramp up, just not fast enough to deliver all december and early january orders by march 31st, or likely even by april 31st.

Ah, yes, I did discover yesterday from FB that other site you linked to.
It does look like delivery actions are a similar rate to configuration actions in recent times. If they do keep the number of configured-underlivered cybertrucks roughly constant then the length of waiting time should drop as production rate increases.

 

[evnow]

Before the close of 2024, to make for better 2024 numbers, I predict Tesla will open up allowing people to configure their NON-FS Cybertrucks...

Right - but the guess is they will allow people to configure non-FS Beasts first and then non-FS AWD.

But it all depends on their production rate and ramp up.

 

[evnow]

Here are some historical ramp up numbers for Tesla. Tesla delivered ~ 20k of S and X in the first 4 quarters. But 3 & Y ramped up fast - 150k for 3 and 85k for Y. We should expect CT to be closer to S/X than 3/Y.

They had big problems with X if you recall - with seats, as well as the doors. They delivered just over 200 X in the second quarter. They are already ahead of that with CT this quarter. They may end this quarter with about 3K deliveries.

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