Production rate theory
- Thread starter agordon117
- Start date
- Watchers 8
agordon117
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2024
- Threads
- 7
- Messages
- 1,196
- Reaction score
- 2,031
- Location
- Ohio
- Vehicles
- cybertruck foundation awd
- Thread starter
- #48
There won't be a drone flyover today. Normally Joe Tegtmeyer and Brad Sloan alternate days (and nobody flies sunday), but Joe is heading to starbase. I've been updating the first post as the numbers come in. My theory here has been 80 trucks on a good day, 57 leave the factory average per day. Someone posted Vin stickers of 2 trucks made 7 days apart, and they were 400 vins apart, which is exactly 57 per day. While that's not really enough data, it's one more piece of the puzzle that suggest I could be right.
With that in mind, here's a spreadsheet I compiled of a percentage chance for a vin to be assigned on a given day. Jan 10 and before orders, inclusive. The data assumes no ramp, but also assumes no more line jumpers or general out of order vin assignments.
I'm sure of the math in the 2nd column "Percent chance for a single vin to be assigned on a given date". It's the 3rd column I'm less sure about. It looks reasonable, but my brain isn't happy with the logic.
Updated the math for the 3rd column, much better now.
I'm only bothering to put this here as well so that all of my various theories aren't in completely separate places around the forums.
With that in mind, here's a spreadsheet I compiled of a percentage chance for a vin to be assigned on a given day. Jan 10 and before orders, inclusive. The data assumes no ramp, but also assumes no more line jumpers or general out of order vin assignments.
Updated the math for the 3rd column, much better now.
I'm only bothering to put this here as well so that all of my various theories aren't in completely separate places around the forums.
| Vins left to be assigned for 1/10 orders and before | Percent chance for a single vin to be assigned on a given date | percent chance to be picked by a given day | Date |
6216 | 0.94% | 0.9170% | 3/11/2024 |
6159 | 0.95% | 1.8340% | 3/12/2024 |
6102 | 0.96% | 2.7510% | 3/13/2024 |
6045 | 0.96% | 3.6680% | 3/14/2024 |
5988 | 0.97% | 4.5849% | 3/15/2024 |
5931 | 0.98% | 5.5019% | 3/16/2024 |
5874 | 0.99% | 6.4189% | 3/17/2024 |
5817 | 1.00% | 7.3359% | 3/18/2024 |
5760 | 1.01% | 8.2529% | 3/19/2024 |
5703 | 1.02% | 9.1699% | 3/20/2024 |
5646 | 1.03% | 10.0869% | 3/21/2024 |
5589 | 1.04% | 11.0039% | 3/22/2024 |
5532 | 1.05% | 11.9208% | 3/23/2024 |
5475 | 1.07% | 12.8378% | 3/24/2024 |
5418 | 1.08% | 13.7548% | 3/25/2024 |
5361 | 1.09% | 14.6718% | 3/26/2024 |
5304 | 1.10% | 15.5888% | 3/27/2024 |
5247 | 1.11% | 16.5058% | 3/28/2024 |
5190 | 1.12% | 17.4228% | 3/29/2024 |
5133 | 1.14% | 18.3398% | 3/30/2024 |
5076 | 1.15% | 19.2568% | 3/31/2024 |
5019 | 1.16% | 20.1737% | 4/1/2024 |
4962 | 1.18% | 21.0907% | 4/2/2024 |
4905 | 1.19% | 22.0077% | 4/3/2024 |
4848 | 1.20% | 22.9247% | 4/4/2024 |
4791 | 1.22% | 23.8417% | 4/5/2024 |
4734 | 1.23% | 24.7587% | 4/6/2024 |
4677 | 1.25% | 25.6757% | 4/7/2024 |
4620 | 1.26% | 26.5927% | 4/8/2024 |
4563 | 1.28% | 27.5097% | 4/9/2024 |
4506 | 1.30% | 28.4266% | 4/10/2024 |
4449 | 1.31% | 29.3436% | 4/11/2024 |
4392 | 1.33% | 30.2606% | 4/12/2024 |
4335 | 1.35% | 31.1776% | 4/13/2024 |
4278 | 1.37% | 32.0946% | 4/14/2024 |
4221 | 1.38% | 33.0116% | 4/15/2024 |
4164 | 1.40% | 33.9286% | 4/16/2024 |
4107 | 1.42% | 34.8456% | 4/17/2024 |
4050 | 1.44% | 35.7625% | 4/18/2024 |
3993 | 1.46% | 36.6795% | 4/19/2024 |
3936 | 1.48% | 37.5965% | 4/20/2024 |
3879 | 1.51% | 38.5135% | 4/21/2024 |
3822 | 1.53% | 39.4305% | 4/22/2024 |
3765 | 1.55% | 40.3475% | 4/23/2024 |
3708 | 1.58% | 41.2645% | 4/24/2024 |
3651 | 1.60% | 42.1815% | 4/25/2024 |
3594 | 1.63% | 43.0985% | 4/26/2024 |
3537 | 1.65% | 44.0154% | 4/27/2024 |
3480 | 1.68% | 44.9324% | 4/28/2024 |
3423 | 1.71% | 45.8494% | 4/29/2024 |
3366 | 1.74% | 46.7664% | 4/30/2024 |
3309 | 1.77% | 47.6834% | 5/1/2024 |
3252 | 1.80% | 48.6004% | 5/2/2024 |
3195 | 1.83% | 49.5174% | 5/3/2024 |
3138 | 1.87% | 50.4344% | 5/4/2024 |
3081 | 1.90% | 51.3514% | 5/5/2024 |
3024 | 1.94% | 52.2683% | 5/6/2024 |
2967 | 1.97% | 53.1853% | 5/7/2024 |
2910 | 2.01% | 54.1023% | 5/8/2024 |
2853 | 2.05% | 55.0193% | 5/9/2024 |
2796 | 2.10% | 55.9363% | 5/10/2024 |
2739 | 2.14% | 56.8533% | 5/11/2024 |
2682 | 2.19% | 57.7703% | 5/12/2024 |
2625 | 2.23% | 58.6873% | 5/13/2024 |
2568 | 2.28% | 59.6042% | 5/14/2024 |
2511 | 2.34% | 60.5212% | 5/15/2024 |
2454 | 2.39% | 61.4382% | 5/16/2024 |
2397 | 2.45% | 62.3552% | 5/17/2024 |
2340 | 2.51% | 63.2722% | 5/18/2024 |
2283 | 2.57% | 64.1892% | 5/19/2024 |
2226 | 2.64% | 65.1062% | 5/20/2024 |
2169 | 2.71% | 66.0232% | 5/21/2024 |
2112 | 2.78% | 66.9402% | 5/22/2024 |
2055 | 2.86% | 67.8571% | 5/23/2024 |
1998 | 2.95% | 68.7741% | 5/24/2024 |
1941 | 3.03% | 69.6911% | 5/25/2024 |
1884 | 3.13% | 70.6081% | 5/26/2024 |
1827 | 3.23% | 71.5251% | 5/27/2024 |
1770 | 3.33% | 72.4421% | 5/28/2024 |
1713 | 3.44% | 73.3591% | 5/29/2024 |
1656 | 3.56% | 74.2761% | 5/30/2024 |
1599 | 3.69% | 75.1931% | 5/31/2024 |
1542 | 3.83% | 76.1100% | 6/1/2024 |
1485 | 3.98% | 77.0270% | 6/2/2024 |
1428 | 4.15% | 77.9440% | 6/3/2024 |
1371 | 4.32% | 78.8610% | 6/4/2024 |
1314 | 4.51% | 79.7780% | 6/5/2024 |
1257 | 4.72% | 80.6950% | 6/6/2024 |
1200 | 4.95% | 81.6120% | 6/7/2024 |
1143 | 5.21% | 82.5290% | 6/8/2024 |
1086 | 5.49% | 83.4459% | 6/9/2024 |
1029 | 5.80% | 84.3629% | 6/10/2024 |
972 | 6.15% | 85.2799% | 6/11/2024 |
915 | 6.55% | 86.1969% | 6/12/2024 |
858 | 7.00% | 87.1139% | 6/13/2024 |
801 | 7.51% | 88.0309% | 6/14/2024 |
744 | 8.11% | 88.9479% | 6/15/2024 |
687 | 8.81% | 89.8649% | 6/16/2024 |
630 | 9.65% | 90.7819% | 6/17/2024 |
573 | 10.66% | 91.6988% | 6/18/2024 |
516 | 11.91% | 92.6158% | 6/19/2024 |
459 | 13.49% | 93.5328% | 6/20/2024 |
402 | 15.56% | 94.4498% | 6/21/2024 |
345 | 18.38% | 95.3668% | 6/22/2024 |
288 | 22.44% | 96.2838% | 6/23/2024 |
231 | 28.84% | 97.2008% | 6/24/2024 |
174 | 40.40% | 98.1178% | 6/25/2024 |
Last edited:
agordon117
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2024
- Threads
- 7
- Messages
- 1,196
- Reaction score
- 2,031
- Location
- Ohio
- Vehicles
- cybertruck foundation awd
- Thread starter
- #52
Thanks for that. Seems to match my assumptions very nicely.
CyberGus
Well-known member
- First Name
- Gus
- Joined
- May 22, 2021
- Threads
- 85
- Messages
- 8,578
- Reaction score
- 28,490
- Location
- Austin, TX
- Vehicles
- 1981 DeLorean, 2024 Cybertruck
- Occupation
- IT Specialist
New Process? WTF happened to the Old Process??!?
agordon117
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2024
- Threads
- 7
- Messages
- 1,196
- Reaction score
- 2,031
- Location
- Ohio
- Vehicles
- cybertruck foundation awd
- Thread starter
- #55
Just in case anyone is still tuning in, 174 trucks outside of giga texas yesterday (normal for a production day). 32 in outbound. Nothing to directly suggest that production has increased yet, but it does seem like things are rolling through outbound differently than they were.
We peaked on 3/5 at 59 in outbound, and then it's been going down from there. But I believe the output has been right around the magic number of 57 trucks shipped per day, so things are more dynamic than they were.
I'll keep the spreadsheet updated on my end but I'm probably not going to be updating it in the first post until we get drone videos back at 6 days per week. It just won't be meaningful information with less outbound numbers.
That said, we're seeing 5 vins assigned for 3/11 and 3/12 already, normally a few more get added over the course of a week. We might end up seeing 7 or 8 vins assigned for those 2 days by the time the numbers have settled. Time will tell.
It occurs to me that people may not like my assumptions (duh, it's the internet), but I can still provide useful information to those people. You pick how many vins you think will be assigned on average per day, only of the registered orders on the forums. This will tell you how long it will take, based on that average, to fill the orders quoted for march delivery.
Per cybertruck.vin, the average vins per day (on the forum) are at 3.6 starting from jan 1. Counting from feb 1, vins per day is 4.4. Counting from Feb 26, vins per day is 5.4.
I'm including beasts because they are being shipped with AWD. The lead time was longer (early 24 ends April 30th), and moved quickly. But we can't assume that vins being assigned are AWD vins based on the last few days.
Spreadsheet assumes vins stop going out of order as well, which we know won't happen.
We peaked on 3/5 at 59 in outbound, and then it's been going down from there. But I believe the output has been right around the magic number of 57 trucks shipped per day, so things are more dynamic than they were.
I'll keep the spreadsheet updated on my end but I'm probably not going to be updating it in the first post until we get drone videos back at 6 days per week. It just won't be meaningful information with less outbound numbers.
That said, we're seeing 5 vins assigned for 3/11 and 3/12 already, normally a few more get added over the course of a week. We might end up seeing 7 or 8 vins assigned for those 2 days by the time the numbers have settled. Time will tell.
It occurs to me that people may not like my assumptions (duh, it's the internet), but I can still provide useful information to those people. You pick how many vins you think will be assigned on average per day, only of the registered orders on the forums. This will tell you how long it will take, based on that average, to fill the orders quoted for march delivery.
Per cybertruck.vin, the average vins per day (on the forum) are at 3.6 starting from jan 1. Counting from feb 1, vins per day is 4.4. Counting from Feb 26, vins per day is 5.4.
I'm including beasts because they are being shipped with AWD. The lead time was longer (early 24 ends April 30th), and moved quickly. But we can't assume that vins being assigned are AWD vins based on the last few days.
Spreadsheet assumes vins stop going out of order as well, which we know won't happen.
| March delivery orders remaining (1/17 cutoff, AWD) | All orders including beast, 1/17 cutoff | Known vins assigned per day (avg) | Days to last march AWD vin assignment | Days including beast |
| 507 | 836 | 1 | 507 | 836 |
| 507 | 836 | 2 | 253.5 | 418 |
| 507 | 836 | 3 | 169 | 278.6666667 |
| 507 | 836 | 4 | 126.75 | 209 |
| 507 | 836 | 5 | 101.4 | 167.2 |
| 507 | 836 | 6 | 84.5 | 139.3333333 |
| 507 | 836 | 7 | 72.42857143 | 119.4285714 |
| 507 | 836 | 8 | 63.375 | 104.5 |
| 507 | 836 | 9 | 56.33333333 | 92.88888889 |
| 507 | 836 | 10 | 50.7 | 83.6 |
| 507 | 836 | 11 | 46.09090909 | 76 |
| 507 | 836 | 12 | 42.25 | 69.66666667 |
| 507 | 836 | 13 | 39 | 64.30769231 |
| 507 | 836 | 14 | 36.21428571 | 59.71428571 |
| 507 | 836 | 15 | 33.8 | 55.73333333 |
| 507 | 836 | 16 | 31.6875 | 52.25 |
| 507 | 836 | 17 | 29.82352941 | 49.17647059 |
| 507 | 836 | 18 | 28.16666667 | 46.44444444 |
| 507 | 836 | 19 | 26.68421053 | 44 |
| 507 | 836 | 20 | 25.35 | 41.8 |
| 507 | 836 | 21 | 24.14285714 | 39.80952381 |
| 507 | 836 | 22 | 23.04545455 | 38 |
| 507 | 836 | 23 | 22.04347826 | 36.34782609 |
| 507 | 836 | 24 | 21.125 | 34.83333333 |
| 507 | 836 | 25 | 20.28 | 33.44 |
| 507 | 836 | 26 | 19.5 | 32.15384615 |
| 507 | 836 | 27 | 18.77777778 | 30.96296296 |
| 507 | 836 | 28 | 18.10714286 | 29.85714286 |
| 507 | 836 | 29 | 17.48275862 | 28.82758621 |
| 507 | 836 | 30 | 16.9 | 27.86666667 |
Last edited:
carsly
Well-known member
- First Name
- Vin
- Joined
- Dec 13, 2023
- Threads
- 74
- Messages
- 1,243
- Reaction score
- 2,407
- Location
- Princeton, NJ
- Vehicles
- LR Defender, CT AWD
That's not how production ramps work.
Try fitting to an S curve.
Though reality isn't quite that clean either at this early stage. Production increases are not necessarily a continuous function. More like step changes as they figure out the rate-limiting steps, perhaps take the line down to improve them, and restart. Then you find a new rate-limiting step - rinse and repeat.
While we could say a recent average of ~40/day would equate to 1,200/mo and then <15,000 in 2024 we are guaranteed to be wrong. Because next week could average 50/day and then the week after 60/day then maybe 30/day as they shut down the line for a day or two to rejigger things and then 90/day the week or two after that. We just don't know what's happening inside the factory.
BTW, this data and analysis is quite insightful. Thanks to the OP for doing the heavy lifting and sharing with all of us!
agordon117
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2024
- Threads
- 7
- Messages
- 1,196
- Reaction score
- 2,031
- Location
- Ohio
- Vehicles
- cybertruck foundation awd
- Thread starter
- #58
And for sure, there will be some kind of curve, while my data is all linear. But I will adjust as it goes and the picture becomes more clear.
agordon117
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2024
- Threads
- 7
- Messages
- 1,196
- Reaction score
- 2,031
- Location
- Ohio
- Vehicles
- cybertruck foundation awd
- Thread starter
- #59
Vins and deliveries that we know about here, yeah. It brings the assumption closer to 1:10, people registering on the forum vs all cybertruck owners/order holders. Because the rate of 57 trucks shipped per day seems to be pretty close to correct.
The good news is, vins assigned here per day does seem to be increasing. Hopefully the trend continues.
SpykeDaddy
Well-known member
- First Name
- Michael
- Joined
- Jan 10, 2024
- Threads
- 1
- Messages
- 105
- Reaction score
- 178
- Location
- Marine on St. Croix
- Vehicles
- 2010 Roadster, 2018 Model S, 2024 CT (ordered)
Thanks for doing this analysis. I love it. So interesting and you have saved a lot of us from doing that tedious sleuthing to know what's happening in the outbound parking lot. Really appreciate this!
I have worked in manufacturing for 30 years and have been involved in new product launches (not cars, tho!) and it is unavoidable to hit a few things: 1) supplier issues (delivery on time, quality) 2) production issues (labor, process, waiting for new equipment) and 3) design issues (need to redesign a supplied part, production step or replace equipment)
All of those things can set back production numbers inside of a single day. It's a horrific process and, as a leader, so frustrating and exhilarating at the same time. Some days I go home wondering if we'll ever make a quality unit and others I think, we're going to beat our ramp numbers. Literally changes daily.
I'm only sharing as things are going to be unpredictable for a long time!
Thanks again for collecting some great info.
I have worked in manufacturing for 30 years and have been involved in new product launches (not cars, tho!) and it is unavoidable to hit a few things: 1) supplier issues (delivery on time, quality) 2) production issues (labor, process, waiting for new equipment) and 3) design issues (need to redesign a supplied part, production step or replace equipment)
All of those things can set back production numbers inside of a single day. It's a horrific process and, as a leader, so frustrating and exhilarating at the same time. Some days I go home wondering if we'll ever make a quality unit and others I think, we're going to beat our ramp numbers. Literally changes daily.
I'm only sharing as things are going to be unpredictable for a long time!
Thanks again for collecting some great info.
Sponsored
Last edited:
Similar threads
Recent Posted Photos (Random Order)
Recent Posted Photos (Random Order)