Production rate theory

[agordon117]

March delivery orders remaining (1/17 cutoff, AWD)	All orders including beast, 1/17 cutoff	Known vins assigned per day (avg)	Days to last march AWD vin assignment	Days including beast
507	836	15	33.8	55.73333333

Today we were here. Getting warmer. Let's see if it keeps up

Sponsored

 

[evnow]

Lots of CTs reported today by the drone guys.

 

[jerhenderson]

Every time VAG or BMW or Mercedes launch an entirely new platform for a Sedan or SUV they are producing 100s of thousands of units globally in the first year of production.

I mean, this isn't even something we should be arguing about.

Even if we are talking completely new never before seen vehicle types (which the CT really is not) they have ramped faster. BMW produced something like 8K i3 in the very first limited production year and that was out of Leipzig as a side project.

I own a decent amount of stock in Tesla but they have face planted on production ramp over and over and over again.

Lol

 

[agordon117]

Lots of CTs reported today by the drone guys.

My latest guess is an average of 70-90CTs leaving the factory per day. Vin assignments are way up this week vs when I made this post. ~9 per day avg right now.

 

[SparkChaser]

My latest guess is an average of 70-90CTs leaving the factory per day. Vin assignments are way up this week vs when I made this post. ~9 per day avg right now.

I'm confused. If the plant is turning out 70-90 a day and only 9-10 vins are being assigned where are the other 60-80 trucks going?

 

[agordon117]

I'm confused. If the plant is turning out 70-90 a day and only 9-10 vins are being assigned where are the other 60-80 trucks going?

only 1 person for every 10 reports their information to the forums.

 

[sylvius]

only 1 person for every 10 reports their information to the forums.

That seems about right. Given the recent uptick in daily VIN assignments, can you redo your table predicting time to delivering the December and January orders (conservative estimate without further ramp, just at current production rate)? That would be presumably a lot more optimistic than the prior estimate at the older production rate. I just want to see something that shows me getting my truck this summer

 

[agordon117]

That seems about right. Given the recent uptick in daily VIN assignments, can you redo your table predicting time to delivering the December and January orders (conservative estimate without further ramp, just at current production rate)? That would be presumably a lot more optimistic than the prior estimate at the older production rate. I just want to see something that shows me getting my truck this summer

The table doesn't really need updated much, but sure.

March delivery orders remaining (1/17 cutoff, AWD)	All orders including beast, 1/17 cutoff	Known vins assigned per day (avg)	Days to last march AWD vin assignment	Days including beast
463	788	1	463	788
463	788	2	231.5	394
463	788	3	154.3333333	262.6666667
463	788	4	115.75	197
463	788	5	92.6	157.6
463	788	6	77.16666667	131.3333333
463	788	7	66.14285714	112.5714286
463	788	8	57.875	98.5
463	788	9	51.44444444	87.55555556
463	788	10	46.3	78.8
463	788	11	42.09090909	71.63636364
463	788	12	38.58333333	65.66666667
463	788	13	35.61538462	60.61538462
463	788	14	33.07142857	56.28571429
463	788	15	30.86666667	52.53333333
463	788	16	28.9375	49.25
463	788	17	27.23529412	46.35294118
463	788	18	25.72222222	43.77777778
463	788	19	24.36842105	41.47368421
463	788	20	23.15	39.4
463	788	21	22.04761905	37.52380952
463	788	22	21.04545455	35.81818182
463	788	23	20.13043478	34.26086957
463	788	24	19.29166667	32.83333333
463	788	25	18.52	31.52
463	788	26	17.80769231	30.30769231
463	788	27	17.14814815	29.18518519
463	788	28	16.53571429	28.14285714
463	788	29	15.96551724	27.17241379
463	788	30	15.43333333	26.26666667

We are ~9 vins per day average right now. This is current as of today.

But also, since you ordered a beast, this doesn't really apply to you. I believe 1/11 beast orders said late 2024. The beasts that are shipping (in a trickle) right now are 12/8 orders, which said early 2024. I don't really have a good way to forecast beasts until much later configuration dates ship on a recurring basis.

That's the only reason I included beasts in this chart. They are shipping, which means not 100% of shipped vins will be AWD. So the truth for AWD orders will be somewhere between the AWD vin assignment and the Beast vin assignment. But for beast orders, I just don't know how to forecast it.

@cgladue, can you give me a way to see just beast vin assignments per day?

 

[cgladue]

sure, for now tho here is Beasts grouped by VIN Date

 

[agordon117]

sure, for now tho here is Beasts grouped by VIN Date

I'm guessing the missing dates had no beast vins?

 

[agordon117]

That seems about right. Given the recent uptick in daily VIN assignments, can you redo your table predicting time to delivering the December and January orders (conservative estimate without further ramp, just at current production rate)? That would be presumably a lot more optimistic than the prior estimate at the older production rate. I just want to see something that shows me getting my truck this summer

Beast orders remaining through 1/17	Known vins assigned per day (avg)	days to last 1/17 and earlier beast vin
325	1	325
325	2	162.5
325	3	108.3333333
325	4	81.25
325	5	65
325	6	54.16666667
325	7	46.42857143
325	8	40.625
325	9	36.11111111
325	10	32.5
325	11	29.54545455
325	12	27.08333333
325	13	25
325	14	23.21428571
325	15	21.66666667
325	16	20.3125
325	17	19.11764706
325	18	18.05555556

Here's beast orders 1/17 and before. Current avg beast vins per day (over the last 7 days) is 2.

 

[cgladue]

I'm guessing the missing dates had no beast vins?

correct

 

[SpykeDaddy]

Does anyone know if Tesla typically breaks out product shipment counts (CT's delivered) in their quarterly report? That'd a great way to validate our 1:10 ratio guess! We're probably a few weeks away from their Q1 call.

 

[agordon117]

Does anyone know if Tesla typically breaks out product shipment counts (CT's delivered) in their quarterly report? That'd a great way to validate our 1:10 ratio guess! We're probably a few weeks away from their Q1 call.

They sometimes do and sometimes don't call things out individually when a vehicle is new like this. I *think* they will show the delivery numbers, but it's possible they don't think they are impressive enough and will just shovel them into "other" vehicles again.

Regardless, this is why I made the 2 spreadsheets above, so that even if the 1:10 assumption is wrong, those spreadsheets are unaffected. Because it only counts known orders here as well as known vin assignments here.

 

[SpykeDaddy]

Regardless, this is why I made the 2 spreadsheets above, so that even if the 1:10 assumption is wrong, those spreadsheets are unaffected. Because it only counts known orders here as well as known vin assignments here.

Makes perfect sense now. Thank you!

(I am still looking for the perfect metric that tells me I'm getting my VIN today. Ha ha ha ha.)

Sponsored