With sales down is the CT going to become a Delorean

[PungoteagueDave]

Like I said, there are many reasons why vehicle sales fluctuate through the year. I only rely on each years sales data to determine "best-selling". Plus, the Lightning has been in production for years, it should be selling two to three times the Cybertruck by now. But it's an outdated vehicle, so I expect sales to taper off for the second half of the year.

And just like Rivian, Ford is selling the Lightnings below the cost to produce. So, those sales are costing Ford a lot of money. If I have a dairy chain, and it costs me $3.00 on average, to produce a gallon of milk, and I sell each gallon for $2.00 and sell millions of gallons, can I claim that people prefer my milk over Dairygold? I suppose I could claim the best-selling milk in America, but what good does that do me if the more I sell, the more I lose?

This is why Cybertruck sales will pass up Lighting sales by the end of the year. Ford cannot afford to sell more Lightnings.

Ford has always produced positive gross margin on its EVs. Not one Mach E or Lightning has been sold at a production cost loss. The division has losses due to accounting rules for R&D, G&A, depreciation. This contrasts with Rivian which spends more on every vehicle in actual content costs than it can sell them for, with an average historical loss of about $50k/unit. Yes, I actually read the 10-Q’s for each company in question.

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[PungoteagueDave]

EV Credit is going away Sept 30 now that the bill has passed, this will likely bump CT and other EV sales as that $7,500 personal or business tax credit is a pretty big deal.

Tesla will cut MSRPS dollar-for dollar when the credits go away. That’s what they did in 2019 the last time they lost access to EV credits. No way they can sustain a $7,500 average sale price increase, and they have the margin to adjust MSRP accordingly.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

N

Demand is highly elastic based on price. Lower price = higher sales. Production is limited by how much money GM is willing to lose chasing higher sales. And common sense says they just want to make enough to have a presence in the EV space until the cost to manufacture is lower than the price they will fetch in the market. That point could conceivably happen suddenly if GM can stick around long enough, which is certainly possible with enough government protectionism in the American market. But I think they are still many years from being able to support their bloated and inefficient manufacturing model with EV sales.

Even in the best case scenario, GM will be a shadow of their former self. More likely, they will not survive without another government bailout using taxpayer money. And that might not be an option depending upon the political situation at the time. You can count me as one patriotic American who does NOT support the multiple bailouts of a company that repeatedly fails due to a lack of exceptionalism. Capitalism can only work because it's a merit based system and merit is not measured by what a company achieved in the past, it's measured by what a company has become. Their EVs are too expensive to produce to be mass market vehicles without selling them at a large loss. That's not sustainable in high volumes.

And, no, GM did not pass Tesla in EVs by 2025 as Mary Barra famously proclaimed around 2020. Not even a close call. It was obvious that they wouldn't, but she said it anyway.

While I opposed the GM bailout on principle, that fact is that not one penny of taxpayer money was lost on the transaction. In fact, it was hugely profitable to taxpayers. I am always amazed at the lack of economic and financial awareness evident in the American public. People who believe things as facts that are 180 degrees from reality simply because the lie fits their preferred narrative.

 

[BrockN]

At the end of the day, all the discussions up-thread about profit/loss, production line utilization, comparative sales with the competition... are relevant. To an extent anyway.

However, the big factor that I haven't seen mentioned is whether Elon wants to keep the truck in production. Or not.

If Elon wants to keep it around, I think it will stick around. He holds too much sway over the board to allow them to kill the project, unless it's a huge (HUGE) money pit for the company that the board simply can't ignore. And even he can't ignore.

Cybertruck seems to be his pet Tesla project. As long as he is steering the ship, I don't see it going out of production any time soon.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

Even at 5,000 units per year Tesla can keep the CT going and make money - it’s simply more of a niche than planned. The bigger issue is what to do with the gigafactory’s excess space and the fact that the CT line was designed for specific production that isn’t compatible with “normal” auto production - for example, no paint systems. Porsche and Mercedes sell plenty of models at a profit with unit production well below 5k.

 

[scottf200]

Tesla can boost Cybertruck sales by:


Increasing production, reducing the cost per unit.
Lowering the retail price
Optimising battery range - it's coming, I think.
Selling in more countries, especially right-hand-drive markets like Australia.

In addition, waiting for interest rates to come down, sensible to pivot to other priorities. New Models, unboxed production, FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus.

I guess the genius employees are busy as hell.

I thought these two things would have moved the needle more than it did.

1) $7500 tax credit (maybe more motivation (read: sales bump) before it goes away)
2) 0% APR - https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...h-purchase-of-fsd-new-cybertruck-offer.43480/

 

[RustyLopez]

Tesla needs to improve their exposure to the general public. Most people have no idea Tesla is a tech company. Most people have no idea what the cyber truck does.

Had this convo the other day with a patient, an educated man;

Yep, when people ask me questions about the CT in parking lots, I always invite them to come and take a look at the size of the bed and the back seat. I keep the back seat folded up so my two golden retrievers have a giant dog bed back there. People are genuinely shocked at the size of the pickup bed and how much room there is in the interior.

 

[YDR37]

I thought these two things would have moved the needle more than it did.

1) $7500 tax credit (maybe more motivation (read: sales bump) before it goes away)
2) 0% APR

The weird thing is that Cybertruck sales have never improved as pricing has dropped.

The best quarter for Cybertruck sales was 3Q 2024 (14,416 according to Cox). And that was when the only option was the Foundation Series, starting at $100,000.

Then in 4Q 2024, the non-Foundation CT was introduced, along with a $20,000 discount. Now the CT started at only $80,000. And ... sales fell (to 12,991).

Then in 1Q 2025, the non-Foundation AWD qualified for the $7,500 Federal tax credit. You could get a new CT for just $72,500. And ... sales dropped by 50% (to 6,406). Cox won't have a 2Q 2025 number for a few weeks, but it will most likely be even lower.

For 3Q 2025, the RWD will be available for $70,000, and the tax credit will still be available too. So it will be possible to get a brand new CT for only $62,500. Maybe that deal, along with the rush to buy RWDs and AWDs before the tax credit evaporates, will finally move the needle and increase quarterly sales.

 

[charliemagpie]

I thought these two things would have moved the needle more than it did.

1) $7500 tax credit (maybe more motivation (read: sales bump) before it goes away)
2) 0% APR - https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...h-purchase-of-fsd-new-cybertruck-offer.43480/

They are incentives to boost sales by %,. Not to swing a Market.

# 1 catalyst is the price to grow the addressable market

#2 Range parity or close with combustion. It's not just towing, but I reckon we do need at least 400 miles to be a credible alternative in the mass market.

BTW , Im in Australi.. the GWM Cannon Hybrid is around $65,000AU ,~560mile range, 37kw battery with power outlet. Tows 3.5tons easily, getting really good off road reviews... diff lock... luxury interior heated/cooling seats, sunroof , carplay etc etc

Vrs the Cybertruck if it comes down here .. say $180,000AU


CT has to drop 20% in price imo, and increase range 20%

 

[scottf200]

BTW , Im in Australi.. the GWM Cannon Hybrid is around $65,000AU ,~560mile range, 37kw battery with power outlet. Tows 3.5tons easily, getting really good off road reviews... diff lock... luxury interior heated/cooling seats, sunroof , carplay etc etc

Wow, I can see how this would be an enticing option. Just saw it's page plus a few reviews:
https://www.gwmanz.com/au/models/ute/cannon-alpha/

 

[charliemagpie]

Wow, I can see how this would be an enticing option. Just saw it's page plus a few reviews:
https://www.gwmanz.com/au/models/ute/cannon-alpha/

I ordered my Cybertruck in early 2020, I even managed to buy a personalised number plate in my State.

But now, it still isn't in Australia.. I intend to tow a 3.5 ton RV , the EV charging highway network isnt quite right yet, too many 250-350 km gaps .. This cannon is very compelling.

I intend to start my RV life mid 26, if the CT is here.. as things stand, I will lean towards the Cannon.. until some time when the CT comes down to say AU$120,000 and a 400 mile range


Tesla still makes the best, Model Y for me is on top.. but Jeez the Chinese are the new Japanese.

 

[REM]

Also they could change body panels to plastic like in CyberCab, creating less fuss maintaining current Cybertruck and offering multiple colors, then I might trade in my FS24. Time well tell.

 

[REM]

The weird thing is that Cybertruck sales have never improved as pricing has dropped.

To be fair, we are still not that headlines away from Cybertrucks literally being firebombed. I think people are forgetting that Tesla was being targeted by domestic terror groups because Elon was pulling the curtains back on their funding lol

 

[axhoaxho]

Since I had the Cybertruck and explored all its features, I was amazed how an amazing machine it was.

The stainless steel look could be a little bold for some folks, but a wrap could tone it down and it's fun to choose the colors to fit our personal likings.

If Tesla can put some positive product placement on the Cybertruck (like the DeLorean in the Back to the Future movie,) I think it would help more people to jump abroad.

 

[GuyV]

I'm hoping you simply don't know much detail about Tesla's grid scale energy storage business. If so, you really need to learn how not to opinionate on things you are ignorant of. It's not a good look.

But I suspect @REM probably hit the nail on the head.

I can do basic financial math. Tesla is charging 10 times more than the cost of the batteries for Powerwalls and Megapacks. They don't make those batteries themselves, and they have no technological moat against competitors, merely a head start. They aren't even using optimal chemistry for stationary storage, just what they are familiar with building cars. They have brilliantly shown there is a market but they can't own it at those profit margins. Ultimately, they will have no more long-term advantage with it than they have had with solar.

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