Who really wants to know what the CT final specs and features are going to be? The OEMS.

[Ogre]

That is my suspension as well. I do not believe Tesla wants to show its hand yet to the competitors. Although at this stage of the game and the commitments that the OEM's have made into their EV truck projects, I do not believe they can change gears much once Tesla fully announces the specs.

Ford still hasn’t announced pricing of trim levels and options yet. GM is launching the Silverado in January I think (Leading the way!).

Still lots of opportunities for these folks to change gears a bit.

Though I’m not sure what difference it will make, considering Stellantis CEO just suggested EVs will cost OEMs 50% more to produce them ICE, this is going to be a very one-sided fight.

Sponsored

 

[Crissa]

The range loss isn't a straight line.

Maybe, after ten years, you'll see a 20% loss. But that's why they have such a long range to start with.

It's not like current trucks don't already have parts that wear down, like seats and seals. We like to say 'runs good as new' but engines that have lots of miles on them, don't.

Ogre is right - just put aside a thousand bucks each year you aren't spending on oil and engine repairs you'll either have enough for an upgraded battery or a new truck by the time you hit 80% capacity.

I am fine with Tesla not releasing the Specs until the CT is ready for production. What they need to do is to prioritize the CT release before the OEM catchup and they lose customers. 4680s should remain exclusively to CT and Tesla Semis until they ram up production. Upgrade the Model Y with 4680s should remain last. The Model y is an excellent vehicle at it is now.

I think their idea of using the Y is because it's:

1. Already done. All they need to change is the pack.
2. Popular. The crossover is the most popular style of car already.
3. Production constrained. They can't make as many as they could sell, and this could help that.
4. More expensive to make than the 3. So reducing this will make it a clear leader in its segment.
5. The Model Y is sharing space with the Model 3, their two most popular models.
6. Easily marked up because of 2, 3, & 4. Profit makes the machines go 'round.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

This million mile battery talk makes me wonder if Tesla should sell an “upgraded” battery pack with a million mile battery. The battery itself would be the same, it would just have a 1 million mile warrantee to retain at least 80% of battery capacity. Given the statistics they have on them, they could utterly crush it with profit margins on those. Particularly since the bulk of bad failures happen within the existing warrantee.

They won’t because Tesla doesn’t play those games; but I’m sure plenty of people would pay for it just for the piece of mind of knowing they won’t have to worry about battery failure.

 

[CyberGus]

That is my suspension as well… I do not believe they can change gears much once Tesla fully announces the specs.

Illegal ICE references, you are penalized 6 points

 

[Bill906]

This million mile battery talk makes me wonder if Tesla should sell an “upgraded” battery pack with a million mile battery. The battery itself would be the same, it would just have a 1 million mile warrantee to retain at least 80% of battery capacity. Given the statistics they have on them, they could utterly crush it with profit margins on those. Particularly since the bulk of bad failures happen within the existing warrantee.

They won’t because Tesla doesn’t play those games; but I’m sure plenty of people would pay for it just for the piece of mind of knowing they won’t have to worry about battery failure.

Great idea, but they'd want to put a bunch of stipulations in that warranty. Otherwise some people (ME!) would take advantage of that. "What do you mean I can't charge to 100% everytime. It's easy, watch... I've been doing it for years." or "We're good, it says 1% left and home is only 4 more miles."

 

[Ogre]

Great idea, but they'd want to put a bunch of stipulations in that warranty. Otherwise some people (ME!) would take advantage of that. "What do you mean I can't charge to 100% everytime. It's easy, watch... I've been doing it for years." or "We're good, it says 1% left and home is only 4 more miles."

If you see a contract with a bunch of wiggle room in them, don’t you just write them off as worthless? I sure do.

I think they should just plan that some percentage of drivers are going to abuse the hell out of their truck and price it under that assumption. They have a good idea what their 10% worst drivers looks like from statistics.

 

[Klaxon]

If I would get the CT's final specs under my christmas tree I would think hard what to do with that gift.
But if I would get the CT, even without the detailed description and specs, O-o-o, I know what I would do!

Ok, without specs I can sleep well, not worring about mileage.
???

 

[Ogre]

If I would get the CT's final specs under my christmas tree I would think hard what to do with that gift.

It’s one of those Christmas gifts you open up and instantly know you are going to end up just regifting it.

 

[SpaceYooper]

Take all the money you would pay on maintenance - oil changes, belts, transmission service, brake changes, radiator flushes, etc etc etc… put that money into a savings account. By the time the battery life drops below 80%, you will have enough money saved to replace your battery. You will likely have thousands left over afterwards.

Ogre is right - just put aside a thousand bucks each year you aren't spending on oil and engine repairs you'll either have enough for an upgraded battery or a new truck by the time you hit 80% capacity.

My purpose of buying an EV truck is to save money over the life of the truck. Buying a replacement battery (if possible) would defeat my purpose if all I did was break even.

I also think the estimation for how much money is spent on ICE vehicle maintenance is generally inflated. I've owned 5 vehicles in my life (not including my wife's cars) 1 Cherokee, 2 x Ford Rangers, 1 Ford F250 and my current F150. I've needed 1 clutch replaced (Cherokee) and 1 radiator replaced (F250) but that was due to an accident opposed to any differed maintenance. Oh and I needed a new turbo for my F150. I've never had a major engine problem. All vehicles to include my current F150 were parked outside always. All vehicles had/have over 150k miles on them when sold. the F250 had about 270k on it.

$80 for an oil change x 3 changes a year = $240/yr x 10 yrs = $2,400. Call it $500 for brakes about every 30k miles. That's about 5 brake changes in 10 years = $2,500. Transmission flush, belt changes,...maybe another $1,000 over 10 years. We're at $6400 total. Gas is $130 per tank x 2 tanks per month = $3,120/yr and ~$32k after 10 years. For the sake of the argument I'll assume gas prices increase annually by 5% yr over yr. In 10 years gas would be about $6.20/gal (based $4/gal today in CO) and I would have spent about $44k in gas. I should be able to cut "fuel" cost with my CT by 2/3 so I will have saved ~$29k in gas. But I paid a premium up front to own the CT3 of about $15k, so gas savings minus the premium and I'm up $14k + $6,400 in maintenance cost. So I'm up $20,400 after 10 years...I'll add in another $5k in God knows what savings so now I'm at $25,400 saved. How much is that new battery going to cost me if I'm only getting 80% of the advertised range (400 miles) out of a charge in perfect conditions? My guess is that battery is more then $20k; so at best I break even only when making all arguments in favor of the CT.

This does not account for any extra costs to insure the CT vs a comparable ICE 1/2 ton. I've seen arguments both ways. Some say it's more, some have said their insurance lowered. Lets call it a wash. It also doesn't account for the extra tire costs I keep hearing EV owners talk about.

What's funny is that the same people that will say I need to be spending more on preventive maintenance on my ICE truck (even though history tells me I haven't had to) are the same ones that will argue the CT doesn't need a spare tire because they've never needed one, but I will argue till I'm blue in the face that full size spare should be standard in all trucks. To each their own.

Edited 12/4 because I realized my gas math was wrong. Instead of being in the hole, it's now basically a wash if I need a new battery...but again, there's $5k in extra ICE maintenance in there to tilt the scales.

 

[madquadbiker]

I don't believe we'll see much if any of a jump in charging speed. The 4680s will have to fight their larger size vs the ease of cooling them. With each model, though, the thermal management system has gotten better.

I do think we'll see a slight difference between the gearing of the powertrain vs the other Tesla models. But I doubt it'll be apparent until we get a teardown, which will be months after the launch.

I think the tech we'll see that's special is the four-wheel steering and the adjustable ride. No one else is planning that except in super-trucks to be their cap stone.

And I think Aero will come out ahead of where calculations found it.

-Crissa

I hope Sandy gets the first one off the line and starts the tear down straight away.

 

[Mini2nut]

Tesla doesn’t want to let the cat out of the bag quite yet. It would allow 9-12 months for the ”competition“ to catch up. The general styling will be roughly the same but electronics, standard and optional features are going to change.

It puts Tesla between a rock and a hard place. They would love to share CT details with all reservation holders but they don’t want to give BEV pickup competitors a leg up when they are only in the Alpha stage of development.

I don’t expect a lot of details will be released during the Q4 earnings call. Tesla will most likely speak to the current stage of development and what the timeline appears to be for CT production and other models.

 

[Ogre]

$80 for an oil change x 3 changes a year = $240/yr x 10 yrs = $2,400. Call it $500 for brakes about every 30k miles. That's about 5 brake changes in 10 years = $2,500. Transmission flush, belt changes,...maybe another $1,000 over 10 years. We're at $6400 total. Gas is $130 per tank x 2 tanks per month = $3,120/yr and ~$32k after 10 years. For the sake of the argument I'll assume gas prices increase annually by 5% yr over yr. In 10 years gas would be about $6.20/gal (based $4/gal today in CO) and I would have spent about $44k in gas. I should be able to cut "fuel" cost with my CT by 2/3 so I will have saved ~$22k in gas. But I paid a premium up front to own the CT3 of about $15k, so gas savings minus the premium and I'm up $7k + $6,400 in maintenance cost. So I'm up $13,400 after 10 years...I'll add in another $5k in God knows what savings so now I'm at $18,400 saved. How much is that new battery going to cost me if I'm only getting 80% of the advertised range (400 miles) out of a charge in perfect conditions? My guess is that battery is more then $20k; so now I'm in the hole.

You don’t change belts or Spark plugs? Air filters? Fuel filters? How much time are you spending going to get your truck lubed or services and waiting for all of these services to happen? Is your time valued at $0?

F150 Maintenance schedule…

My purpose of buying an EV truck is to save money over the life of the truck. Buying a replacement battery (if possible) would defeat my purpose if all I did was break even.

Setting aside the costs and the environmental benefits. Setting aside the fact that performance is going to blow away any ICE truck on everything save perhaps towing range.

Ignoring all of that. I’d buy the Cybertruck simply because it means I will never have to stop at a gas station on my way home from anywhere ever.

 

[Throwcomputer]

My purpose of buying an EV truck is to save money over the life of the truck. Buying a replacement battery (if possible) would defeat my purpose if all I did was break even.

I also think the estimation for how much money is spent on ICE vehicle maintenance is generally inflated. I've owned 5 vehicles in my life (not including my wife's cars) 1 Cherokee, 2 x Ford Rangers, 1 Ford F250 and my current F150. I've needed 1 clutch replaced (Cherokee) and 1 radiator replaced (F250) but that was due to an accident opposed to any differed maintenance. Oh and I needed a new turbo for my F150. I've never had a major engine problem. All vehicles to include my current F150 were parked outside always. All vehicles had/have over 150k miles on them when sold. the F250 had about 270k on it.

$80 for an oil change x 3 changes a year = $240/yr x 10 yrs = $2,400. Call it $500 for brakes about every 30k miles. That's about 5 brake changes in 10 years = $2,500. Transmission flush, belt changes,...maybe another $1,000 over 10 years. We're at $6400 total. Gas is $130 per tank x 2 tanks per month = $3,120/yr and ~$32k after 10 years. For the sake of the argument I'll assume gas prices increase annually by 5% yr over yr. In 10 years gas would be about $6.20/gal (based $4/gal today in CO) and I would have spent about $44k in gas. I should be able to cut "fuel" cost with my CT by 2/3 so I will have saved ~$22k in gas. But I paid a premium up front to own the CT3 of about $15k, so gas savings minus the premium and I'm up $7k + $6,400 in maintenance cost. So I'm up $13,400 after 10 years...I'll add in another $5k in God knows what savings so now I'm at $18,400 saved. How much is that new battery going to cost me if I'm only getting 80% of the advertised range (400 miles) out of a charge in perfect conditions? My guess is that battery is more then $20k; so now I'm in the hole.

This does not account for any extra costs to insure the CT vs a comparable ICE 1/2 ton. I've seen arguments both ways. Some say it's more, some have said their insurance lowered. Lets call it a wash. It also doesn't account for the extra tire costs I keep hearing EV owners talk about.

What's funny is that the same people that will say I need to be spending more on preventive maintenance on my ICE truck (even though history tells me I haven't had to) are the same ones that will argue the CT doesn't need a spare tire because they've never needed one, but I will argue till I'm blue in the face that full size spare should be standard in all trucks. To each their own.

apparently never had to replace an axle, a catalytic converter, timing belt, alternator, battery, oxygen sensor, tires across over at least half a million miles, ac repair, stabilizer bar linkage... none of this? and this is all just basic wear and tear crap.. not even major catastrophe stuff! If so you either don't fix things that break.. or you are the luckiest person on earth regarding vehicle reliability.

I had to replace front axles twice this year.. one set was junk. Also rear main oil seal leak fix (costly fucker), ac repair. Just those 3 repairs this year was approx $3500, granted thats an unusual year. Previous 6 years only spent about $2000 total aside from standard oil changes/etc. So in the past 7 years of this truck it works out to about $785/yr in non oil change repairs/fixes. And this is with "friend" mechanic labor prices with parts purchased predominantly from rock auto or ebay (except repairs this year were normal shop rates as the "friend" is no longer working on stuff).. so consider those costs under-inflated. This is a ridgeline with 250k miles on it.

 

[SpaceYooper]

You don’t change belts or Spark plugs? Air filters? Fuel filters? How much time are you spending going to get your truck lubed or services and waiting for all of these services to happen? Is your time valued at $0?

F150 Maintenance schedule…

Setting aside the costs and the environmental benefits. Setting aside the fact that performance is going to blow away any ICE truck on everything save perhaps towing range.

Ignoring all of that. I’d buy the Cybertruck simply because it means I will never have to stop at a gas station on my way home from anywhere ever.

Fair question. But I'd like to point out that I mentioned $5000 worth of additional undescribed savings for God know what and I'm sure those things you mentioned fall within that number.

Belts were replaced as required and the cost wasn't worth counting because I'm sure it's been under $1000 in my life. Air filters, yes, they are about $10 each and replaced about as often as I get an oil change. Tack on another $300 over ten years for those. Oil filters are also about $10. So another $300. Yup on spark plugs also. Usually around the 100k mile mark per vehicle. That's a couple of hundred bucks...call it $500 per vehicle, and glow plugs for the F250 were more, so I'll call that $1000 (all these estimates are high), but that totals $3k in my life, but since we're talking 10 year cost, that's one set of plugs for $500. So So belts, air filters, oil filters and plugs $1000+$300+$300+$500...is well within the $5000 of undescribed maintenance.

Time...yes I value my time as much as the next person and I lose about 2 hours including drive time and waiting for the oil change 3 times a year. 6 hours lost per year. I will enjoy having those 6 hrs back.

 

[SpaceYooper]

apparently never had to replace an axle, a catalytic converter, timing belt, alternator, battery, oxygen sensor, tires across over at least half a million miles, ac repair, stabilizer bar linkage... none of this? and this is all just basic wear and tear crap.. not even major catastrophe stuff! If so you either don't fix things that break.. or you are the luckiest person on earth regarding vehicle reliability.

I had to replace front axles twice this year.. one set was junk. Also rear main oil seal leak fix (costly fucker), ac repair. Just those 3 repairs this year was approx $3500, granted thats an unusual year. Previous 6 years only spent about $2000 total aside from standard oil changes/etc. So in the past 7 years of this truck it works out to about $785/yr in non oil change repairs/fixes. And this is with "friend" mechanic labor prices with parts purchased predominantly from rock auto or ebay (except repairs this year were normal shop rates as the "friend" is no longer working on stuff).. so consider those costs under-inflated. This is a ridgeline with 250k miles on it.

Axle, no never had to replace one of those. Catalytic converter, nope. Timing belt, yup. Alternator, yup. Battery, of course. Oxygen sensor, yes. Stabilizer bar, no. I've never needed an AC repair but I'd say the CT will have AC and Tires too, so I wouldn't count either.

The costs of those things mentioned are easily under the extra $5k I threw into my argument.

Sucks you had to replace the front axle twice. I will admit the clutch on my Cherokee had to be replaced twice, but the second time was 100% my dumb-ass fault (I was 17)...my dad was not pleased. Aah...memories.

Sponsored