Sponsored

Cybertruck Affordability and Volume

fritter63

Well-known member
First Name
Mark
Joined
Jan 21, 2020
Threads
33
Messages
1,472
Reaction score
2,972
Location
Atascadero
Vehicles
2024 Model X
Occupation
Wax on, Wax off!
Country flag
Musk is talking about the challenges of the Cybertruck and he mentions that making it affordable is one of the biggest challenges.
What I find annoying/disturbing about that comment is that I thought the whole point of the radical design was to make it easier to build.

Did they just get it wrong?
Sponsored

 
OP
OP
Ogre

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
166
Messages
10,735
Reaction score
27,050
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
What I find annoying/disturbing about that comment is that I thought the whole point of the radical design was to make it easier to build.

Did they just get it wrong?
No.

I think the “problem” is he wants to use the simplified design to reduce the cost as much as possible. So maybe he makes an electric truck comparable price or even less than an ICE truck.

Then cram a bunch of technology into it like 4 wheel steering, air suspension, Yoke steering wheel with progressive turning, FSD Hardware 4.0, the AMD Ryzen console, 350 kW fast charging, quad motors, etc etc etc.

Many (@rr6013 being the most vocal :love: ) would prefer he just kept the costs and end price as low as possible.

A base Cybertruck without a lot of these bells and whistles would be super popular.
 

Crissa

Well-known member
First Name
Crissa
Joined
Jul 8, 2020
Threads
138
Messages
19,571
Reaction score
31,475
Location
Santa Cruz
Vehicles
2014 Zero S, 2013 Mazda 3
Country flag
Many (@rr6013 being the most vocal :love: ) would prefer he just kept the costs and end price as low as possible.

A base Cybertruck without a lot of these bells and whistles would be super popular.
But alot of this technology makes the truck safer or cheaper in the long run - like the 4680 batteries.

And if the front motor/rack is built the same as the rear one, duplicated parts are just straight up cheaper to produce than custom ones.

-Crissa
 

Mini2nut

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 2, 2020
Threads
137
Messages
4,064
Reaction score
7,375
Location
Planet Earth
Vehicles
*Tesla MYP *SAWD Cybertruck ordered 2/20/26
Country flag
I’m afraid that making the Cybertruck the Techno King of pickups will come at a high cost. The predicted manufacturing savings with the lack of a body and paint shop will be nixed by the high cost of the cutting edge technology that will be stuffed into the Cybertruck. I think we will see a 4k camera system with crystal clear images, sophisticated adjustable air suspension, etc.

The CT will command a premium price tag simply because it’s a Tesla, a premium brand. I predict the lowest priced CT will be the Dual Motor. It will most likely be priced around $65-$75k. The initial Quad Motor MSRP will probably be in the $85-$95k range. A Quad Motor Plaid MSRP will be $110-$120k.

I predict that 10-20% of reservation holders will drop their pre-order once Tesla announces revised MSRP numbers for the 2023 Cybertruck.

Tesla Cybertruck Cybertruck Affordability and Volume 422191CD-C493-40A7-8194-E21BABFFBDCD
 
Last edited:
OP
OP
Ogre

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
166
Messages
10,735
Reaction score
27,050
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
But alot of this technology makes the truck safer or cheaper in the long run - like the 4680 batteries.

And if the front motor/rack is built the same as the rear one, duplicated parts are just straight up cheaper to produce than custom ones.

-Crissa
That last bit makes me wonder if they might run with 2 quad motor designs. Big motor, small motor.

Also, I can’t help think using a second motor eliminates the need for a differential with and other parts. Hard to say what the cost of these parts versus the extra motors would be.

(Conjecture) Air suspension could also reduce costs. The increase in range due to having a lower/ more aerodynamic height on the highway reduces the battery pack size. Conceivably enough to pay for the air suspension.
 
Last edited:


Cybertruckee

Banned
Well-known member
Banned
First Name
Yosemite Sam
Joined
Apr 21, 2020
Threads
10
Messages
553
Reaction score
579
Location
Mostly under the pines
Vehicles
Red Rider
Occupation
Finance Manager
Country flag
If Elon is asking this question late in the game, then he should fire his CFO (well, new CFO, with Tesla's notorious high executive-managerial staff turn over).

Very detailed costing and margins+plus contingency allowance is done before setting a price point and before the first screw is produced.
 

Deleted member 4261

Guest
I’m afraid that making the Cybertruck the Techno King of pickups will come at a high cost. The predicted manufacturing savings with the lack of a body and paint shop will be nixed by the high cost of the cutting edge technology that will be stuffed into the Cybertruck. I think we will see a 4k camera system with crystal clear images, sophisticated adjustable air suspension, etc.

The CT will command a premium price tag simply because it’s a Tesla, a premium brand. I predict the lowest priced CT will be the Dual Motor. It will most likely be priced around $65-$75k. The initial Quad Motor MSRP will probably be in the $85-$95k range. A Quad Motor Plaid MSRP will be $110-$120k.

I predict that 10-20% of reservation holders will drop their pre-order once Tesla announces revised MSRP numbers for the 2023 Cybertruck.

422191CD-C493-40A7-8194-E21BABFFBDCD.jpeg
If there is a price increase then only after the factory is finished, wouldn’t want to refund 100’s of thousands until then.
 
OP
OP
Ogre

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
166
Messages
10,735
Reaction score
27,050
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
I’m afraid that making the Cybertruck the Techno King of pickups will come at a high cost. The predicted manufacturing savings with the lack of a body and paint shop will be nixed by the high cost of the cutting edge technology that will be stuffed into the Cybertruck. I think we will see a 4k camera system with crystal clear images, sophisticated adjustable air suspension, etc.

The CT will command a premium price tag simply because it’s a Tesla, a premium brand. I predict the lowest priced CT will be the Dual Motor. It will most likely be priced around $65-$75k. The initial Quad Motor MSRP will probably be in the $85-$95k range. A Quad Motor Plaid MSRP will be $110-$120k.

I predict that 10-20% of reservation holders will drop their pre-order once Tesla announces revised MSRP numbers for the 2023 Cybertruck.
There is zero chance they will move the kind of volume they are building for at those prices and even if you don’t get it, Tesla management understands this.

Also, bits of evidence coming out that the surge in car prices is starting to flatten and even decline.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ave-passed-their-peak-online-auto-sellers-say

These supply shortages are not permanent.
 
OP
OP
Ogre

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
166
Messages
10,735
Reaction score
27,050
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
If Elon is asking this question late in the game, then he should fire his CFO (well, new CFO, with Tesla's notorious high executive-managerial staff turn over).

Very detailed costing and margins+plus contingency allowance is done before setting a price point and before the first screw is produced.
Hah.

The CFO and accounting department are probably the ones trying to reign Elon in.
 

cybguy

Well-known member
First Name
Pablo
Joined
Apr 17, 2021
Threads
2
Messages
223
Reaction score
249
Location
ABQ
Vehicles
2012 Pilatus PC-12, 2016 Bolt, 2024 Forester
Occupation
Temporarily unRetired
Country flag
Just by looking at the Model Y volumes they could easily sell 250,000 CT's with a base price of $60k.
Probable not going to happen at $60K. Tesla increased prices repeatedly during the pandemic. It was profitable to not have dealers gouging the customer but for Tesla to do it directly. Prices of vehicles will moderate and come down some. BothTesla and OEM dealers will become less profitable as a result once supply goes up significantly. MY and MS at high volume simply won't support current prices unless they have significant improvements. They aren't Cybertrucks.
 


cybguy

Well-known member
First Name
Pablo
Joined
Apr 17, 2021
Threads
2
Messages
223
Reaction score
249
Location
ABQ
Vehicles
2012 Pilatus PC-12, 2016 Bolt, 2024 Forester
Occupation
Temporarily unRetired
Country flag
Glad you brought it up.

According to Elon Musk, a 6 ton Giga produces a cast every 45 seconds, and is working 75% of the time. Equals 10,000 casts per year. This equates to 250,000 cars per year. (front and back) = what Musk said.

I am assuming an 8 ton will have the same capacity.

As a business you just can’t be single point sensitive, you have to have 2 presses at least.

I think sometime in 2023, we will have a second Gigapress operating, and we will be quickly scoping towards 500,000 units per year.

Elon was clearly sandbagging.

500,000 Cybertrucks = 10 billion profit per year.

Buy TSLA
Hello! Anyone home? Did you forget that Musk was very noncommittal on the Cybertruck even starting production in 2023? Seriously if he had committed to 2023 on the earnings call that would have meant likely in 2024. More likely low volume sales starting 2024 or 2025.
 

Crissa

Well-known member
First Name
Crissa
Joined
Jul 8, 2020
Threads
138
Messages
19,571
Reaction score
31,475
Location
Santa Cruz
Vehicles
2014 Zero S, 2013 Mazda 3
Country flag
If Elon is asking this question late in the game, then he should fire his CFO (well, new CFO, with Tesla's notorious high executive-managerial staff turn over).
The numbers change every day. So the answer changes every day.

So it's not so late to be asking this question.

This is no different than the traffic conditions changing while you're making your plans.

-Crissa
 
OP
OP
Ogre

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
166
Messages
10,735
Reaction score
27,050
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
Hello! Anyone home? Did you forget that Musk was very noncommittal on the Cybertruck even starting production in 2023? Seriously if he had committed to 2023 on the earnings call that would have meant likely in 2024. More likely low volume sales starting 2024 or 2025.
Musk said 2023 “most likely”. Also mentioned that they were working on engineering and tooling for the CT. They are going to wait until the Model Y is done before they get the pieces in place. The big problem is they are still struggling with supply chain issues.

They seem quite comfortable with 4680 production so Gigapress is the big missing element.

I wouldn’t commit to any particular timeline, Model Y completion plus 6 months seems about right. If I had to put odds on it, I’d say 85% chance sometime in 2023 production start, 15% chance 2024, and 0.001% chance 2025.

Tesla needs more products in their lineup. They aren’t going to rely on 2 models to drive volume.
 

RVAC

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 11, 2021
Threads
1
Messages
864
Reaction score
1,291
Location
-
Vehicles
-
Does that $60k MY have:
37” truck tires and rims
Dynamic computerized suspension controls
30X SS bullet proof body
120kW battery pack
Dual PIM motors
Acoustic bullet resistant glass
RWS

Cost creep is orthogonal as the scale of a vehicle increases. Elon has laid out the spreadsheets against the design brief and is telling us that the two don’t square.

Back of envelope maths:
Deletes:
RWS
1 PIM front motor
4680 battery pack
Dynamic suspension

ADDs:
LFP battery pack
1PEM front motor
Conventional coil sprung suspension.

It still looks insufficient to bring under the design brief, IDK. That’s as much as you can change a DUAL CT and still have a Cybertruck. I’ve owned two Range Rovers. The conventional sprung coil suspension was best of *any* truck owned. Best riding. Best handling. Best offroad. Only my 3rd Gen 4Runner came close and it was rough as hell riding. But offroad? It handled very well. I’d take coil suspension over losing the CT due to cost creep. I don’t have to think twice about the tradeoff. I would whine about losing 16” clearance but I can live with 10”. Higher the truck is hard for the gals to climb aboard.
You misunderstood my post. I said they would easily sell that many at $60k, not that it would be easy to manufacture them and hit that price point whilst maintaining 30% auto gross margins.


Probable not going to happen at $60K. Tesla increased prices repeatedly during the pandemic. It was profitable to not have dealers gouging the customer but for Tesla to do it directly. Prices of vehicles will moderate and come down some. BothTesla and OEM dealers will become less profitable as a result once supply goes up significantly. MY and MS at high volume simply won't support current prices unless they have significant improvements. They aren't Cybertrucks.
Sure, I do agree that once supply catches up prices will inevitably have to start coming down. Probably at the end of this year or early next year. That said the CT is different, there's an enormous amount of pent up demand for it.
 
Last edited:
OP
OP
Ogre

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
166
Messages
10,735
Reaction score
27,050
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
You misunderstood my post. I said they would easily sell that many at $60k, not that it would be easy to manufacture them and hit that price point whilst maintaining 30% operating margin.
I think even $60k for the base Cybertruck is pushing it if they want to sell 250k+ vehicles. There are no trucks on the market selling anywhere near that volume for $60k. The Tundra sells around 100k/ year and their $65k truck is their top end model, they sell a lot of trucks in the $50-60k range.

If they want to hit 250k+ units, I think they need at least 1 model under $60k. If they want to sell 500k+ trucks as I suspect, they are absolutely going to need a $50k model.

Likely we won’t see anything under $70k until they hit volume production, but once they are scaled up, I’m pretty sure there will be something in the $50k-55k range. Even if that is the single motor at that point. (Or a dual motor RWD so they share parts!)
Sponsored

 
 








Top