If Quad Motor Cybertruck is $89,900, are you still in?

[intimidator]

People need to learn how to separate speculation from fact.

Nobody outside Tesla has specific pricing information on the quad motor Cybertruck. Very few people inside Tesla do.

We do know that it will cost more than the Tri Motor (not sure how much the extra motor and gear will cost). Plus the original Tri Motor was promised in November 2019. 4-5 years of inflation later, the Quad is going to be much higher than $69,000.

Since I have a Tri-Motor reservation, I guess someday, eventually, I will find out.

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[Ogre]

We do know that it will cost more than the Tri Motor (not sure how much the extra motor and gear will cost). Plus the original Tri Motor was promised in November 2019. 4-5 years of inflation later, the Quad is going to be much higher than $69,000.

Since I have a Tri-Motor reservation, I guess someday, eventually, I will find out.

No, we actually don’t. Tesla has never shared anything on pricing for the quad motor. While I think it’s a good bet that the quad motor will be more expensive than the tri motor, it’s just a guess. Informed guesswork at best. Speculation.

If they don’t release the tri motor, maybe the quad drops in it’s place. We don’t know.

Also, it is not “4-5 years”, we are 2.25 years from when it was announced. I know it seems like 2 decades since the announcement since we’ve dealt with COVID and all the other craziness, but we only roughly 0.3 years past due right now and delivery is likely to be a mere 1.25 years after promised delivery date.

You can wait 4-5 years. I‘m not.

 

[EZTRAKMAN]

Sure! Why Not? It's gotta be faster too!

 

[Ogre]

Ok. A couple things on inflation. But first I’m going to quote Tesla management from the earnings call.

Raw material exposure?

Zach Kirkhorn: (16:52)
Yeah. Just to add to what Elon is saying. There’s different ways to calculate raw material exposure. I think a simple way, we estimate more around 10 to 15% of our cost structure exposed to raw materials. And just to clarify a couple of things on that. So we’ve been experiencing increases in costs in general, but also raw materials for a number of quarters now. That pace picked up in Q1, so last quarter. And what we’re seeing for Q2 is slightly higher than that as well. And as indices move, it doesn’t impact us immediately or directly. In some cases we have contracts with suppliers. But then as those contracts expire, we have to renegotiate them so that there can be a lag.

In some cases, our contracts do directly reflect movement in commodity prices, raw material prices. But the timing in which that Tesla pays for that has a lag associated with it as well, based on the contract. And so to Elon’s point what we’re trying to do here, because it’s quite an unprecedented situation of raw material movement, and all of these various lags and uncertainty around renegotiating contracts is, we’re trying to anticipate where things will go. And make sure the pricing that we have put in place at the time that those raw material cost increases hit us, that they align. And that the company can remain financially healthy in various scenarios as we look out over the next four quarters.

Zach Kirkhorn is Tesla’s “Master of Coin” aka CFO.

Lots of noise here about raw materials costs going up. Tesla hedges raw materials. They also deal directly with mines and other equipment. Tesla also just completed their transition to the 4680 cells which will massively reduce their battery costs. This last bit is no longer theory, Tesla confirmed that their goals with regards to cost savings with the 4680 have largely been met.

Teslas exposure to raw materials is 10-15% of their costs. This isn’t theory either, it is numbers direct from their Master of Coin. A 50% increase in raw materials costs is only a 5% increase in vehicle cost.

Now can we please stop trying to use inflation to justify the silly 30-50% increases people are suggesting because that is simply fiction.

 

[Crissa]

We do know that it will cost more than the Tri Motor

How do we know this?

Plus the original Tri Motor was promised in November 2019. 4-5 years of inflation later, the Quad is going to be much higher than $69,000.

The price was for late 2021 and through 2022. So you don't think it's coming out until 2025?

-Crissa

 

[charliemagpie]

Agree that an increase will affect raw materials, which is 10-15% of the price.

My concern is whilst Tesla has long term supply contract in place, how long term are they ?

If the main bulk of delivery starts and of 2023, perhaps we are at the tail end of these supply contracts.

As we see now, to cover future raw material increase, Tesla has already begun to raise its prices. On the bright side, we are seeing ~10% increases.

From this, could we ascertain we are seeing proof of a ~10% increase covering the cost of future materials.

 

[Cybertruck Hawaii]

Don’t worry about the price of a Cybertruck for the first five years after being debuted in 2023. It won’t depreciated at all.

 

[Jsc480]

This question is mainly for $69,990 Tri Motor reservation holders.

Hypothetical question here. Some industry experts are estimating that the base Quad Motor Cybertruck may start at $89,900 + $1200 destination fee ($91,100 total).

Tri Motor reservation holders, are you still in?

No, I would be out.

 

[Bill906]

I really wish Tesla didn't name the three trim levels Single, dual and Tri-motor. People are really getting hung up on the number of motors. Number of motors is analogous to when I was a kid and everyone talked about how many cylinders a car had. From the limited information I had, I came to the conclusion that the more cylinders meant a faster and/or more powerful car. All 8 cylinder vehicles would beat all 6 cylinder vehicles and they would beat all 4 cylinder vehicles.

Like cylinders, the more motors you have, the more likely it's more powerful but that isn't a law. I learned this when a guy in my hometown bought a Buick Grand National. It was a turbo 6 cylinder that was faster than any other car around.

My guess is the quad motor is going to have very similar specs as the tri motor. I'm making up numbers here, but what I'm thinking is the tri motor has three 333 ⅓ HP motors totaling 1000HP. The Quad will have four 250HP motors, still equaling 1000HP. The specs will be very similar, the main difference is the quad will have full 4 wheel vectoring ability. Back to the topic of this thread... I don't know what the costs would be, but I'm guessing four 250HP motors will cost more than three 333 ⅓ HP motors, but I don't think it will be as much as everyone is guessing. If the quad motor makes assembly easier (therefore cheaper) because of symmetry, it might be a wash.

While I'm on the subject... another reason I wish Tesla would have named the trims differently is all the people asking for a dual motor with 500 mile range. If Tesla would have named the trims something like Budget, Base and Performance, or Bronze, Silver and Gold etc. It would be less likely someone would say "I wish they made the base model but with 500 miles of range".

End of rant.

 

[HaulingAss]

Like cylinders, the more motors you have, the more likely it's more powerful but that isn't a law. I learned this when a guy in my hometown bought a Buick Grand National. It was a turbo 6 cylinder that was faster than any other car around.

Fastest production car of 1987. Here's the hilarious part:

It was slow as molasses compared to my Model 3 P which was bought almost 4 years ago now.

The Buick Grand National GNX could launch from 0-60 MPH in under five seconds and run a low 13-second quarter-mile. My 2018 Model 3 P can launch from 0-60 in under 3.1 seconds and run a low 10 second quarter mile. That makes the Buick feel gutless and sluggish, especially when you consider how instantly the Model 3 can put the power to the pavement no matter whether from a standing start, a rolling start or a 25 mph start.

However, the Tesla is a high-volume production car while the Buick GNX was produced in very low numbers and specially prepared by an aftermarket performance company:

A total of just 547 cars were built by Buick with a Grand National interior and then sent to American Specialty Cars (ASC) McLaren Performance Technologies for the GNX transformation. Improvements included a Garrett T3 turbocharger with ceramic impeller and GNX heat sheild, larger capacity intercooler, reprogrammed engine management and performance suspension with torque bar and GNX-only rear differential cover. The 3.8L V6 engine in the GNX was conservatively rated for 276 horsepower at 4,400 RPM and 360 lb-ft of torque at 3,000 RPM and backed by a prepared Turbo-HydraMatic 2004R transmission.

Oh, I should add, the Buick cost a lot of money to keep on the road and, if you used it like it was meant to be used, it spent a shocking amount of time in the shop being maintained and repaired, not to mention fuel costs. The Model 3 P can be tracked every weekend and you probably won't need much more than just brakes and tires and a few bucks worth of electricity.

 

[Gaston]

I really wish Tesla didn't name the three trim levels Single, dual and Tri-motor. People are really getting hung up on the number of motors. Number of motors is analogous to when I was a kid and everyone talked about how many cylinders a car had. From the limited information I had, I came to the conclusion that the more cylinders meant a faster and/or more powerful car. All 8 cylinder vehicles would beat all 6 cylinder vehicles and they would beat all 4 cylinder vehicles.
...

Can't disagree. The only reason I didn't get the "Dual" motor version is that I need the extra range to help with towing. I had to select "Tri-motor" to get the extra battery capacity
(and the fact that the Tr-motor was expected to be produced 1st)

 

[cyberda]

Nope. That is running over $130,000 CDN with taxes... (and thats before any extra stuff, like installing a home charger and any add on stuff). That's crazy level cash.... not for a daily truck. I'll get a Lightning for 1/2 the price.

 

[RMK!]

I find the idea of speculators ("flippers") the unique twist in all this Cybertruck discussion. I'm pretty sure that never, in the history of production automobiles has there been this degree of steady appreciation of a newly purchased vehicle. The wife and I bought Tesla's (MY,M3) in 2021 that are now, even with thousands of miles on them, purportedly worth 10-20% more than what we paid.

That is some crazy shite and with the CyberTruck being so different and the demand so high, it will probably have similar post purchase appreciation. Humans being the enterprising little creatures we are see an opportunity in this and it's possible that some (perhaps many) with little or no interest in the product invest $100 a pop as a resale opportunity.

It would be great to know what percentage of the reservation holders are in this flipper category. I'm thinking the number percentage wise might be quite high (30%?). A larger deposit once production and deliverIes start would flush many non-capitalized flippers but in the case of the well heeled opportunists, it could be a big fast cash grab. Another way to avoid this would to limit private party reservations but that is very un-capitalist and I can't see Tesla doing that.

I never thought I'd see this with automobiles ...

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

yes, MPG was a lot better, maintenance is cheaper but not really by that much besides brake pads. Oil changes were only slightly cheaper, tires are about the same. Had to do cooling system flush for 2 systems, transmission fluid change Was the same……basically same as a normal compact car. Fortunately the electrical system didn’t have any issues unlike some people I know.

Then going up hill is agonizing and pass is not safe depends on where. It’s loud inside with lots of road noise or driving inside a washing machine on tougher roads. Outside of being city commuter car it’s terrible. I refused to drive it long distances regardless of the MPG saving.

I still regret not getting the long range model 3 every time I take a trip but it’s really not bad and it drives for me. I have yet to chang anything on my Model3 at 30k miles. And in contrary I look forward to take my Model 3 especially on trips over my 2 lexus, I love it so much but makes CT wait extra excruciating! ?

What we all share is the excruciating pain of the wait, no matter what our particular situation is.

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