💰 Huge Price Cut on all new Teslas. Implications for Cybertruck pricing?

[CyberGus]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/corv...brid-power-and-all-wheel-drive-143733860.html

"The 2024 Corvette E-Ray is the first ever electrified, hybrid Corvette featuring all-wheel drive. Chevrolet (GM) says the E-Ray is the only sports car pairing a naturally-aspirated (meaning non-turbocharged) V-8 engine with an electric motor. While the 6.2 liter V8 powers the rear wheels, the front axle is connected to an electric motor that can give the Corvette “eAWD” as Chevrolet calls it.

The E-Ray will go on sale in 2023, starting at $104,295 in base 1LZ trim."​

So if I'm reading this correctly:

• Dual-drivetrain, 4WD/4WS supercar: $100,000
• Electric 4WD/4WS truck: $150,000
• Endless speculation: priceless

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[HaulingAss]

I for one am a little perturbed. I'm happy they brought down prices to get more people into tesla. But I bought a model 3 while waiting for the truck. I planned on trading it in. My thought was with inflation and everything going on, the prices would continue to rise. But now I'm going to be down 10k on my trade in. Frustrating.

If you had listened to me, I've been predicting lower Tesla prices for years. It was actually embarrassing when unprecedented demand caused prices to rise the last couple of years. Now we are back to where they started, no great surprise.

If you bought FSD and keep it another three years or so it will likely appreciate which would be highly unusual because cars are almost always a depreciating asset. And that's what I assume whenever I buy one, that it will depreciate. New cars are not wise financial moves, they are the reward you can treat yourself with when you have worked hard and have more than you need for regular subsistence.

Getting frustrated over only $10K depreciation is silly, most cars depreciate that much the day you drive them off the new car lot! I do expect the Cybertruck to be the exception to that, but there is no reality in which I would count on it!

 

[firsttruck]

....
Also, that $80k+ Cybertruck so many people claimed would be the base truck? Less than 2% of the population could afford it.

Yup, and it goes way down from there.

How many of the this 2% would even be interested in a pickup truck at all?

How many of the 2% that would consider buying a pickup would consider a BEV pickup?

How many of 2% that would consider buying a BEV pickup would consider the unusual styled Cybertruck?

 

[cvalue13]

Yup, and it goes way down from there.

How many of the this 2% would even be interested in a pickup truck at all?

How many of the 2% that would consider buying a pickup would consider a BEV pickup?

How many of 2% that would consider buying a BEV pickup would consider the unusual styled Cybertruck?

oh that’s easy! 500,000 / yr, right…..

 

[firsttruck]

oh that’s easy! 500,000 / yr, right…..

Nope, 500,000 / yr, is probably off by more than an order of magnitude.

The 2% who can afford to buy $80K, that want a pickup and a BEV one and think Cybertruck is the bee's knees, maybe 20K-50K / yr.

Not enough volume to justify cost for IRDA 9T gigapress.

 

[HaulingAss]

Nope, 500,000 / yr, is probably off by more than an order of magnitude.

The 2% who can afford to buy $80K, that want a pickup and a BEV one and think Cybertruck is the bee's knees, maybe 20K-50K / yr.

Not enough to pay for IRDA 9T gigapress.

Once Tesla starts offering all configurations, most Cybertrucks are going to sell for around $58K, maybe up to $62K if you include options. Using your infinite wisdom of the auto market, how big do you think the annual market is for all Cybertruck versions that average $60K?

I'm going to make a rough, seat of the pants guess that it's over a million per year. And you?

 

[cvalue13]

Once Tesla starts offering all configurations, most Cybertrucks are going to sell for around $58K, maybe up to $62K if you include options. Using your infinite wisdom of the auto market, how big do you think the annual market is for all Cybertruck versions that average $60K?

there was an intentional sarcasm intended to convey the inference that most CTs have to be well below $80K to reach such production numbers

 

[firsttruck]

Once Tesla starts offering all configurations, most Cybertrucks are going to sell for around $58K, maybe up to $62K if you include options. Using your infinite wisdom of the auto market, how big do you think the annual market is for all Cybertruck versions that average $60K?

I'm going to make a rough, seat of the pants guess that it's over a million per year. And you?

Yup, mostly agree with 1 million a year possible but need a base model Cybertruck with price close to $50K price.

A base model ICE Ford F-150 SuperCrew is $43K which is what Cybertruck targets. Regular cab 2 door (one row of seats) is $37K.

https://www.edmunds.com/ford/f-150/

 

[cvalue13]

Since the big 7 full sized truck producers have been collectively selling about 2.3M new full sized trucks per year, MANY of those well below $50,000 …. Tesla has a lot of work to do, to find 1M/yr headroom in that space, with a product like the CT

gotta be at least 5yrs before Tesla is putting out units at those prices, with that much uptake - my pure armchair instinct is all

 

[Ogre]

Once Tesla starts offering all configurations, most Cybertrucks are going to sell for around $58K, maybe up to $62K if you include options. Using your infinite wisdom of the auto market, how big do you think the annual market is for all Cybertruck versions that average $60K?

I'm going to make a rough, seat of the pants guess that it's over a million per year. And you?

Yep. The key word here is average.

Distribution for Teslas original lineup was about 10% single, 45% dual, and 45% tri. Average selling price would be $58k. At that price level Tesla has a truck lineup which Goes down to $40k and is affordable to about 15-20% of the population. Get rid of that $40k option and Tesla‘s total addressable market (TAM) drops to about 8% of the market. Drop the $50k option and it’s down around 2%.

This is why I think the single is as inevitable as the tide. It’ll be the lowest volume truck in the line, but without out it, their TAM is less than 10% of the population.

This is why Musk said after a point demand drops off exponentially. The fraction of the population able to pay $75k+ For a truck is quite small. Tesla wants to move a lot of trucks.

 

[firsttruck]

Yep. The key word here is average.
.....

I also agree

Distribution for Teslas original lineup was about 10% single, 45% dual, and 45% tri. Average selling price would be $58k. At that price level Tesla has a truck lineup which Goes down to $40k and is affordable to about 15-20% of the population. Get rid of that $40k option and Tesla‘s total addressable market (TAM) drops to about 8% of the market. Drop the $50k option and it’s down around 2%.

This is why I think the single is as inevitable as the tide. It’ll be the lowest volume truck in the line, but without out it, their TAM is less than 10% of the population.

This is why Musk said after a point demand drops off exponentially. The fraction of the population able to pay $75k+ For a truck is quite small. Tesla wants to move a lot of trucks.

I think a single rear motor Cybertruck model is severely under-represented in the current reservation backlog. Fleet buyers will not have placed orders in numbers that reflect the true scope of potential fleet sales. Only a few early-adopter trail-blazing fleet buyers would have made a Cybertruck reservation and only for 1-2 Cybertrucks for evaluation. The vast majority of pickup truck fleet buyers, don't know anything about Cybertruck or think it will never be delivered or will not deliver the features/capabilities Tesla promised or think Cybertruck is very ugly.

 

[Ogre]

I also agree



I think a single rear motor Cybertruck model is severely under-represented in the current reservation backlog. Fleet buyers will not have placed orders in numbers that reflect the true scope of potential fleet sales. Only a few trail-blazing fleet buyers would have made a Cybertruck reservation and only for 1-2 Cybertrucks for evaluation. The vast majority of pickup truck fleet buyers, don't know anything about Cybertruck or think it will never be delivered or will not deliver the features/capabilities Tesla promised or think Cybertruck is too ugly.

Yep.

At $40k-50k a Cybertruck has a ton of potential in the trades. Cutting fuel costs in half or more and cutting fuel up stops from the day is a huge benefit to most any business.

 

[No-mo-ice]

Speculation…… my total experience once I pre ordered. If they are practically done and have 4 months to have some on the road they better start selling us this isn’t another nugget of information just before another delay. We should be seeing this thing climbing in MOAB, dusting tracks, and eating up mud pies. Rivian did those things and that was awesome to see them on over land ventures and showing up at events…. And that was at least 2 years before people got them. Tesla is better than Rivian, so I’d think they would of been shown off big time, instead it has shown up in a gallery type setting and driving some pavement after being dropped off by a trailer about a few blocks away. I actually think 2023 was a BS story to keep people on the hook, because if they said it was in 2024 sometime they would loose a ton of potential buyers. I’ve rocked back and forth many times, especially when we get half assed answers about everything CT… like this truck will be like nothing other out there…. That should be a given.

 

[Ogre]

Saw this rolling across my Twitter feed today. Apparently used Rivians are no longer selling for above their new prices. The appetite for over-paying for glam trucks has been sated.

No offense to Rivian buyers, I think their prices are too high for a new truck, let alone second hand.

 

[HaulingAss]

Yep. The key word here is average.

Distribution for Teslas original lineup was about 10% single, 45% dual, and 45% tri. Average selling price would be $58k. At that price level Tesla has a truck lineup which Goes down to $40k and is affordable to about 15-20% of the population. Get rid of that $40k option and Tesla‘s total addressable market (TAM) drops to about 8% of the market. Drop the $50k option and it’s down around 2%.

This is why I think the single is as inevitable as the tide. It’ll be the lowest volume truck in the line, but without out it, their TAM is less than 10% of the population.

This is why Musk said after a point demand drops off exponentially. The fraction of the population able to pay $75k+ For a truck is quite small. Tesla wants to move a lot of trucks.

I agree with the overall concepts you present here but I think your pricing is a little of date and doesn't take into account how much better of a truck even a single motor Cybertruck will be compared to a RWD ICE pickup. The traction and handling advantage will be huge and coupled with the lack of fragile paint, super strong glass, and very low ownership costs relative to ICE, I think people will do the "Tesla stretch". And new truck buyers have more money than you might guess. There are nearly 600 million people in N. America with an average annual GDP of nearly $60K per person. One percent of this market represents 6 million people.

My wife has a RWD Model 3 and the traction on difficult surfaces and handling while accelerating hard out of corners is absolutely unreal compared to any other RWD car I've driven. In other words, RWD is under-rated when it comes to electric vehicles without a big heavy engine and transmission up front. Overall, it's even better than a rear-engine RWD vehicle due to the central battery weight.

What I would really like to see is for Tesla to only have a two motor and a four motor Cybertruck, both available with ~300 miles or ~500 miles battery. And here's the kicker, the two motor does away with the differential because both motors are in the rear. This will have the effect of making the RWD better than an ICE truck with a locking rear differential. It would climb like no RWD has any business climbing, especially with a load in the bed, because each rear wheel would be 100% independently driven. It could also torque vector and it's a very balanced configuration that would also be ideal for towing. People who thought they needed four-wheel drive might be surprised that they don't. Because RWD trucks are, even when they have a limited slip differential, mostly one wheel drive when on very slippery surfaces.

It would also greatly simplify production, because the two motor could have the same rear drive unit as the four motor model and the two battery options could be the same whether they were for the two or four motor models. The two-motor version could be quite affordable, not much more than a single motor, because it wouldn't need a differential. So Tesla could offer four basic models with the combinations of two and four motors and ~300 and ~500 mile ranges. It never made sense that one needed to get the tri-motor to get the 500 miles of range.

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