📈 Q4 2022 Tesla Earnings! Cybertruck Production Remains ON TRACK! Status Still Sits at Tooling

[GlockandRoll]

Or a wooden Chris Craft boat....

Actually, boat designs have radically departed from that, unlike a strat or a woman body - that still is as desirable today as the day it was invented

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[windydrew]

I still believe I'll get my CT in 2023. I'm 3k in line, in the MW(Kansas), own a tesla, and want the trimotor 500mi version. I'm ready

 

[GlockandRoll]

I still believe I'll get my CT in 2023. I'm 3k in line, in the MW(Kansas), own a tesla, and want the trimotor 500mi version. I'm ready

Good luck, but I wouldn't hold your breath.

 

[windydrew]

I am getting pretty good at holding my breath, but not quite to the month long stage. I'll wait until the first day of summer to start holding my breath.

 

[GlockandRoll]

How do you know your place in line?

 

[Ogre]

I am getting pretty good at holding my breath, but not quite to the month long stage. I'll wait until the first day of summer to start holding my breath.

I think there might be one or two others on the forum with lower reservations but I’m not sure. You are the bellwether. If you get your truck in August I have a small chance of getting my truck by year end. It’s up to you to keep hope alive.

 

[windydrew]

How do you know your place in line?

Click the reservations tab and it'll take you to the Google sheet that is organizing orders based on reservation number. Mine is very low

 

[Arctic_White]

Musk says Cybertruck will not have a significant impact on the bottom line in 2023.

There it is.

Sounds like the ideas we’ll have a super-optimistic ramp up are off the table. Maybe my 10k trucks number is even too aggressive.

My hot take: Cybertruck ramp will be slow at first with under 5K vehicles delivered in 2023.

But the ramp-up in 2024 will be insane, as the truck itself is very easy to produce once all the bugs are worked out. No paint, gigacast, etc. means that they will fly off the shelf (shelves?!) once the kinks are worked out. I expect 150K+ production in 2024 and well over 300K+ production in 2025.

This all depends upon having enough batteries.

 

[GlockandRoll]

Exactly.
Thanks for being another voice of reason.

 

[Rutrow]

Look, I'm no quad-motor advocate, but the criticism that Rivian has gotten from rock crawler community has been steeped in ignorance about electric drivetrains. They've pointed at footage of Rivians with wheels in the air spinning, and applied old paradigms of how locking and limited slip differentials would react in those circumstances. Those old ideas just don't apply when you have four motors.

When you have one motor that drives all four wheels, a tire, in the air spinning is wasting engine power that could be better used if it was TRANSFERRED to the wheels with traction. But when you have motors for each wheel (importantly, that CAN'T transfer power to the other wheels) one wheel spinning isn't taking anything* away from the motors driving the other wheels. (*except maybe battery current, but that's insignificant in 4X4ing) Each of the Rivian motors has horsepower similar to the engine driving all four wheels of the Rubicon.

The limited travel that independent suspensions are capable of, as opposed to solid axle articulation, is also derided as an inherent disadvantage of EVs, but those are design choices that are shared by some ICE vehicles too. If rock crawlers decide to adopt electrically driven wheels I'm sure they'll engineer wheel travel capabilities limited only by the distance telescoping rams can achieve. Lordstown's in-wheel motors would be perfect for that. Imagine a wheel reaching out to a distance beyond the length of a solid axle.

 

[Bill906]

Rivan has proven no such thing.

Controlling torque to each wheel independently is superior to locking them all together mechanically. Case in point, snow covered roads. I'm at a stop sign and need to turn right at an intersection. Snowplow has gone by on the road that I'm turning onto creating a snow bank I must drive through. As I start moving from the stop sign, some tires are on ice, some blocked with snow, some touching dry pavement. If all 4 wheels were mechanically locked together, at best I would make my turn with some serious lurching and jerking. Worst case, the car goes forward into the intersection instead of turning. With properly controlled torque vectoring on all 4 wheels, it will pull through it smoothly with total control the entire time.

Why emulate all 4 wheels mechanically locked when you can independently control them to work in the immediate environment and traction availability at that time?

Even if locking all wheels together was superior (It's not), with the controls (inverters, feedback etc.) that I assume all EV's use, it's actually VERY easy to have electic motors emulate mechanically locked loads. In the industrial world it's called "electronic line shaft" and I'm aware of systems designed over 20 years ago using it.

 

[Ogre]

When you have one motor that drives all four wheels, a tire, in the air spinning is wasting engine power that could be better used if it was TRANSFERRED to the wheels with traction.

There is a lot to unwind in this one sentence.

Spinning a wheel against zero resistance requires only a tiny amount of energy. Some motion is required so the car can actually tell if the wheel is pressing against a surface or spinning freely. If it takes 5 watts to turn the wheel at 50 RPMs, it’s burning almost no power and when it does contact soil, the computer can apply more and more power to that wheel granularly.

With a single engine, you might need to “Transfer” power from 1 wheel to another. The Rivian could move even up a steep incline with the power from one of those motors. The limiting factor isn’t how much power that motor has, its traction.

The limited travel that independent suspensions are capable of, as opposed to solid axle articulation, is also derided as an inherent disadvantage of EVs, but those are design choices that are shared by some ICE vehicles too.

This isn’t a disadvantage of EVs. It’s just suspension which is designed for comfort more rather than rock crawling. You could make EVs with a solid axle, I’m pretty sure there are some conversions set up exactly this way.

 

[Rutrow]

There is a lot to unwind in this one sentence.

Spinning a wheel against zero resistance requires only a tiny amount of energy. Some motion is required so the car can actually tell if the wheel is pressing against a surface or spinning freely. If it takes 5 watts to turn the wheel at 50 RPMs, it’s burning almost no power and when it does contact soil, the computer can apply more and more power to that wheel granularly.

With a single engine, you might need to “Transfer” power from 1 wheel to another. The Rivian could move even up a steep incline with the power from one of those motors. The limiting factor isn’t how much power that motor has, its traction.



This isn’t a disadvantage of EVs. It’s just suspension which is designed for comfort more rather than rock crawling. You could make EVs with a solid axle, I’m pretty sure there are some conversions set up exactly this way.

[in a stage whisper] I think you're agreeing with me. That was my exact point.

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