$39.9k Cybertruck starting price is still on tesla site

[Ogre]

QUESTION: On another note, what percentage of reservations do you think will translate to actual truck orders.

# built:

In 2022. None.
In 2023. None, to 50,000
In 2024. Possibly 250,000
In 2025. Possibly 250,000

% wise? If they ever do build the CT, the first models will be Quad only, so how many Tri-Motors will convert to the Quad? 40-45% is my WAG (Wild *** Guess).

If you ordered a single motor, those may never happen. If you ordered a dual motor, you might have to wait until 2025/26.

If you reservation # is about 500,000, see above, you probably have to wait until 2026....and who knows what the price will be then. Inflation can do a major job on prices over the next 3 years.

Based on more realistic numbers from recent high volume lines they’ve rolled out.

2023 : 0 - 100k
2024: 200k - 350k
2025: 250k - 400k
2026: 400k - 500k

PS we have no idea when dual motor trucks will start shipping. Considering battery constraints, I’d find it odd for them to start cranking out 100s of thousand of the biggest battery config and nothing else. They want to maximize utilization of those assembly lines and idling lines due to lack of batteries isn’t going to cut it.

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[RMK!]

Once production is in site, and if the pricing is close to the original numbers (big if), I kind of like the idea of creating an additional deposit (different than the reservation hold) to purge reservation holders who aren't serious.
Spitballing here and obviously this would cause an uproar but it would be an excellent determinant of the true number of committed buyers.

$1,500 seems like a fair number.

 

[Ogre]

Once production is in site, and if the pricing is close to the original numbers (big if), I kind of like the idea of creating an additional deposit (different than the reservation hold) to purge reservation holders who aren't serious.
Spitballing here and obviously this would cause an uproar but it would be an excellent determinant of the true number of committed buyers.

$1,500 seems like a fair number.

Makes a lot more sense to just wait until people are actually ordering their truck to ask for more money. Entirely possible many people will either gain or lose their ability to buy a $60k truck in the 1-3 year window most people will see between start of production and their actual delivery.

 

[Sirfun]

Based on more realistic numbers from recent high volume lines they’ve rolled out.

2023 : 0 - 100k
2024: 200k - 350k
2025: 250k - 400k
2026: 400k - 500k

PS we have no idea when dual motor trucks will start shipping. Considering battery constraints, I’d find it odd for them to start cranking out 100s of thousand of the biggest battery config and nothing else. They want to maximize utilization of those assembly lines and idling lines due to lack of batteries isn’t going to cut it.

You guys guessing on production numbers are missing the most important part of the equation.
DEMAND!!!!
Tesla has stopped giving price estimates because they know the demand is ALREADY beyond their ability to fill reservations in a timely manner. Once the Cybertruck is released, the demand could go through the roof! If that happens, like any company, they have to find a way to get all that MONEY! If the world want's 1 million trucks a year. Tesla will find a way to build them.
Personally, I see a very real possibility of this happening and Tesla having to build over a million Cybertrucks a year by 2026. Think of all the police forces all across the world placing orders. And other commercial customers. The Cybertruck, once it's actually being produced will blow minds!!!

 

[Crissa]

Once production is in site, and if the pricing is close to the original numbers (big if), I kind of like the idea of creating an additional deposit (different than the reservation hold) to purge reservation holders who aren't serious.
Spitballing here and obviously this would cause an uproar but it would be an excellent determinant of the true number of committed buyers.

$1,500 seems like a fair number.

There is a $250 non-refundable order fee when a reservation converts to an order. They won't do this until they have estimated delivery dates and the online configurator is ready.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

You guys guessing on production numbers are missing the most important part of the equation.
DEMAND!!!!
Tesla has stopped giving price estimates because they know the demand is ALREADY beyond their ability to fill reservations in a timely manner. Once the Cybertruck is released, the demand could go through the roof! If that happens, like any company, they have to find a way to get all that MONEY! If the world want's 1 million trucks a year. Tesla will find a way to build them.
Personally, I see a very real possibility of this happening and Tesla having to build over a million Cybertrucks a year by 2026. Think of all the police forces all across the world placing orders. And other commercial customers. The Cybertruck, once it's actually being produced will blow minds!!!

I can see Tesla eventually hitting 1m units per year with the Cybertruck, just going to take a few years For battery supply to get there. I suggest up to 500k/ year because they can potentially get there with 1 8K ton gigapress.

 

[242ls]

https://www.tesla.com/support/cybertruck-ordering-faq

On another note, what percentage of reservations do you think will translate to actual truck orders.

Is it just me or are there only THREE Qs and As on the “CyberTruck Ordering FAQs” page???

 

[Ogre]

Is it just me or are there only THREE Qs and As on the “CyberTruck Ordering FAQs” page???

This is because there is so little uncertainty about the Cybertruck.



/sarcasm

 

[Geo9598]

The only way I see large numbers of people abandoning their Cybertruck orders is if it is unappealing or very expensive at launch.

Even if you buy a Rivian or a Lightning in the mean time, I think most will hang onto that potential Cybertruck. $100 is a cheap option.

Have you heard about people actually getting a refund on their pre-order?

I think Elon will honor the prices listed originally… at least for all the preorders. I sure hope I’m not wrong!

 

[Ogre]

I think Elon will honor the prices listed originally… at least for all the preorders. I sure hope I’m not wrong!

I hope so too.

I’ve been trying to curb my expectations lately, but have not given up all hope.

 

[RMK!]

There is a $250 non-refundable order fee when a reservation converts to an order. They won't do this until they have estimated delivery dates and the online configurator is ready.

-Crissa

Where did you hear/read that?

In any case, I just re-watched Sandy Monroe and his wifes gushing review of their Rivian RT. It is a cool looking and by all accounts, it's the best of the EV pickups now available for order (if not delivery). But as the boys from the Now You Know Youtube channel so clearly stated, the best reason to buy a Tesla vehicle is, "It's the Superchargers Stupid".

I long ago resolved my difficulty with the "unusual" look of the Cybertruck and have come to embrace the quirky but brilliant design. My model Y was leased as a Cybertruck placeholder EV and that lease is up in 2024. If by some miracle,, or good fortune, my Cyber Truck could be delivered earlier than mid 2014, I will happily accept that delivery. There is a special place in my garage (and heart) for the Cybertruck and I can't wait to own one.

 

[SparkChaser]

Once production is in site, and if the pricing is close to the original numbers (big if), I kind of like the idea of creating an additional deposit (different than the reservation hold) to purge reservation holders who aren't serious.
Spitballing here and obviously this would cause an uproar but it would be an excellent determinant of the true number of committed buyers.

$1,500 seems like a fair number.

I would go 10% if it meant moving the ball forward and get my configuration an actual delivery date.

 

[Crissa]

Where did you hear/read that?

That's the current non-refundable deposit. They don't really advertise it. https://electrek.co/2021/08/20/tesla-more-than-doubles-non-refundable-order-fee/

When reservations switch to order, you have to make a non-refundable deposit. It's varied over the years whether the refundable deposit was larger or smaller and when you had to make the non-refundable part.

-Crissa

 

[Bill906]

The refundable $100 we all paid, is that a deposit or a fee? My email calls it a "$100 Order Payment"

I realize we have no idea how things will eventually be, but hypothetically, if the rules when we order are the same as they are now, when it's time to order will there be an additional fee? If it's $250, will the current $100 become non-refundable and go towards the $250 fee? So I'd only need to pay an additional $150 at order time? Is this hypothetical $250 an additional fee, or does it count toward the total price. (i.e. Due at signing $40,000 - $250 = $39,750)

I realize nobody knows what will happen, and $250 is not significant enough to worry about when looking at $40k or higher purchase price. Just going through the thought process. Also, the more we talk about this the less we talk about politics.

 

[Ogre]

I don’t think it matters a whole lot what the order fee is. Once you get to that point, they want you to have a commitment to purchase. They don’t want to be shipping cars to the 5 corners of the earth only to find some dude in Hoboken, NY is just fooling around and now they need to ship the truck elsewhere.

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