4680 Battery Chemistry Upgrade reference:

[scottf200]

I skimmed through it, in case there was something new that I wasn't aware of... is there something specific you'd like to draw my attention to? Not that I claim to know literally everything about the structural pack, but I've watched the teardowns and I do understand the theory of it. Nothing about how a structural pack works really changes my position, though I'll admit it's unclear if that's your goal. I may have jumped the gun and you aren't actually taking up an opposing position to what I said.

You post was fairly generic so I didn't know if you considered some of the physical layouts and restrictions with the Cybertruck specifically. I was trying to be helpful so was taken back by your remarks.

I didn't know if you were a lurker or if you were really new (ie. join: Jan 11, 2024)

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[agordon117]

You post was fairly generic so I didn't know if you considered some of the physical layouts and restrictions with the Cybertruck specifically. I was trying to be helpful so was taken back by your remarks.

I didn't know if you were a lurker or if you were really new (ie. join: Jan 11, 2024)

Apologies for that, long day.

The thread IS very informative. Changing the pack in some way to shave off cells is not that tall of an ask for what they're doing. Compared with what they stand to save, shaving down a handful of the cell clusters and replacing it with something equally structural that costs significantly less isn't a big deal for production in this kind of volume. I see you guys did a lot of the math I'm talking about too.

In fact, they'd save almost exactly the number of cells that it takes to make up the 814 volts, from your post in that thread:

A 17% increase in energy density (the rumor claims 10-20%) would be 224 out of the 1320 cells that you guys think are in the pack.

Which means it would actually be a pretty easy conversion for them. they could drop from 55s6p (if that's the configuration as suggested in the thread) in 4 modules to 55s5p in 4 modules, and save that 220 cells right there. In my mind's eye, the cells that they remove are along the left and right edges of the truck, rather than at the front and back of the pack. Which may not even need a modification of the structural pack at all. It may already be designed to be strong enough even by leaving that last cluster of 55 cells out in each module.

 

[Alan]

I think the range will increase. Usually if Tesla can make it better they will.

 

[Tinker71]

Let me blow your mind with this - the window sticker will reveal the range and if the range is the same as all of the previous cybertrucks it isn't using the updated cells. You don't think Tesla will be the first one to pound it's chest and publish the increased range? I do not agree with your assessment at all.

Anyway I'll be picking my CT up with a check and if I don't like anything about it as far as fit, finish, or range goes I will be asking for a later delivery.

The gen 3 rollout is a qanun drum for Tesla sales/marketing/production planning. One way would be to not announce them at all. Instead install the gen 3 cells as they are available and then software limit them to the current kWhr rating (range) that is being advertised. Then once all the initial FS orders are delivered either, 1) release the added 10-15% range as bonus to the lucky or 2.) charge to release the gen 3 added range. (hope they don't do that.)

Then when sales slow down, they can release the new range with new pricing.
This would get people off the fence from just delaying their order. (spoken from a shareholder perspective)

For me, I want more range and less cost.

 

[MajorVictory]

The gen 3 rollout is a qanun drum for Tesla sales/marketing/production planning. One way would be to not announce them at all. Instead install the gen 3 cells as they are available and then software limit them to the current kWhr rating (range) that is being advertised. Then once all the initial FS orders are delivered either, 1) release the added 10-15% range as bonus to the lucky or 2.) charge to release the gen 3 added range. (hope they don't do that.)

Then when sales slow down, they can release the new range with new pricing.
This would get people off the fence from just delaying their order. (spoken from a shareholder perspective)

For me, I want more range and less cost.

Drew Baglino saying that batteries were not the CT ramp bottleneck and in fact had “ weeks” of battery supply ahead of CTs makes me believe they are not close to the next battery chemistry upgrade.

Would that supply statement change your read?

 

[cvalue13]

unless, and hear me out... they use 10-20% less cells, so they can build 10-20% more trucks.

Like, and hear me out … 4680 Model Y

 

[Tinker71]

Drew Baglino saying that batteries were not the CT ramp bottleneck and in fact had “ weeks” of battery supply ahead of CTs makes me believe they are not close to the next battery chemistry upgrade.

Would that supply statement change your read?

My understanding was Tesla wanted to use up the gen 2 components before they rolled out gen 3 and ramp up new lines

 

[MajorVictory]

My understanding was Tesla wanted to use up the gen 2 components before they rolled out gen 3 and ramp up new lines

Agreed. They stopped/stunted 4680 Model Y production to get the battery reserve for CT. I literally guess it will be anytime the switch to the 955 upgrade.

 

[Darth abbott]

Agreed. They stopped/stunted 4680 Model Y production to get the battery reserve for CT. I literally guess it will be anytime the switch to the 955 upgrade.

There was a noticeable pause in production maybe they made the switch?

A guy can dream right!

 

[PilotPete]

Agreed. They stopped/stunted 4680 Model Y production to get the battery reserve for CT. I literally guess it will be anytime the switch to the 955 upgrade.

As I recall, they were looking at three options. An 811, and a 955 mix. Additionally, an asymmetric roll. Did they say for certain which way they were going? Did they say they were ready for production? I was thinking when they talked about 4680 lines spooling up in “just a few months” that was likely to be as a result of a decision on the mix and the construction. Maybe not…

 

[MajorVictory]

Per Joe's original tweet on X, I perhaps wishfully thought they were in the process of transitioning to the 955 chemistry at the end of December with those two other tweaks coming sometime in 2024...

 

[Tinker71]

Per Joe's original tweet on X, I perhaps wishfully thought they were in the process of transitioning to the 955 chemistry at the end of December with those two other tweaks coming sometime in 2024...

Yes only 10% due to chemistry and maybe a separate 5% or more later. That is why it is hard to market these changes.

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