4680 Progress

Tinker71

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Is the Tesla decision to allow Model Y sales to local Texas Y reservation holders a good sign? I think so.

https://insideevs.com/news/586630/tesla-modely-standard-range-awd-4680-delivery/

Step 1: Pre release testing. Lab and track.
Step 2: Release to employees for best feedback and opportunity to correct defects.
Step 3: Release to local residents, minimize cost to correct defects.
Step 4: Make available to all model Y reservations holders.
Step 5: Officially add Austin model to line up.
Step 5.5: Potential software upgrades of range (huge stock price implication)
Step 6: Proceed with final CT pack design and manufacturing line.
Sponsored

 

BigAl

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I was a bit concerned when I saw the lower stats on the AMY, but I have to remember that it is made with fewer batteries all together. But with all the uproar given before the release about the 4680 cell itself, it makes me believe that it is electronically governed now as to not destroy the sales of the 2170 cell MY out of CA. But then I've also heard that Austin will also be producing the MY with 2170 cells as well, so this puts my brain into a spin. (Please correct if wrong)

If said 4680 cell is not as good as initially advertised, and you will need way more of these cells inside the CT, then aren't you making a heavier, less efficient vehicle? Unless of course they are electronically governed to be released to full potential at a later date that is.

Hmmm...
 

Ogre

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Keep in mind Tesla is not incorporating any of the chemistry changes in these cells yet.

This initial batch of cells is to prove out the ability of the factory to scale up and to prove out the economics of the new factory. They will phase in chemistry changes to improve range and charging times over the next year or so.

What is shipping now is not what we will get in the Cybertruck.
 

cybguy

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It's a good sign. If all goes well Cybertruck sales in 2024 is still possible.
 


uff_da

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There's no evidence they're going to or are making 2170 based Model Ys in Austin so far.

-Crissa
I agree and disagree a tiny bit. There is no evidence that they are making anything but 4680 structural pack in Texas currently. On the other hand, their quarterly earning report did mentioned they are ABLE to produce 2170 MY's in Texas. I am assuming this is still a contingency plan if 4680 can't ramp to needed volumes fast enough.

Tesla Cybertruck 4680 Progress 1652995207938
 

Ogre

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I agree and disagree a tiny bit. There is no evidence that they are making anything but 4680 structural pack in Texas currently. On the other hand, their quarterly earning report did mentioned they are ABLE to produce 2170 MY's in Texas. I am assuming this is still a contingency plan if 4680 can't ramp to needed volumes fast enough.

1652995207938.png
They have the capacity to produce cars with 2170 cells.

Doesn’t mean they are. I wouldn’t be surprised if they did. They also mentioned they have a bit of a surplus of 2170 cells. Gotta put them into something.
 

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Part of me feels like they're cautiously holding back on using the 4680 and they're planning on kicking the door in for 2023 and running in with both barrels blazing.

They may be in a situation where they don't even need to sell anything with 4680s in them because production is maxed, as is, with vehicles using 2170s. What they do deliver over the next 6 months with 4680s will provide real-world data for optimizing performance when released en masse.
 

Crissa

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I agree and disagree a tiny bit. There is no evidence that they are making anything but 4680 structural pack in Texas currently. On the other hand, their quarterly earning report did mentioned they are ABLE to produce 2170 MY's in Texas. I am assuming this is still a contingency plan if 4680 can't ramp to needed volumes fast enough.

1652995207938.png
Yes, I didn't say they didn't have the capability. A backup plan is no indication that you're going to use it.

-Crissa

(In fact, I thought the idea of it being a backup plan was that you hoped you didn't use it?)
 
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charliemagpie

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'Single piece front body casting'

I think they have 3 Gigapresses working, 2 should be ready to go for sure.. So why not the back ?

With Germany and China needing presses, Is it that they expect a delay and are preparing for production ramp to utilise the 3 for front end only ?
 

Jhodgesatmb

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Is the Tesla decision to allow Model Y sales to local Texas Y reservation holders a good sign? I think so.

https://insideevs.com/news/586630/tesla-modely-standard-range-awd-4680-delivery/

Step 1: Pre release testing. Lab and track.
Step 2: Release to employees for best feedback and opportunity to correct defects.
Step 3: Release to local residents, minimize cost to correct defects.
Step 4: Make available to all model Y reservations holders.
Step 5: Officially add Austin model to line up.
Step 5.5: Potential software upgrades of range (huge stock price implication)
Step 6: Proceed with final CT pack design and manufacturing line.
I suppose this is a viable scenario, but there are many possible viable scenarios. My favorite is:

Step 1: Finalize initial 4680 pack design
Step 2: Build and release low-cell Model Ys to employees as reward for their efforts
Step 3: When this offer becomes a trickle release the same design to locals as good neighbors
Step 4: When this offer becomes a trickle release the same design to everyone
Step 5: When 4680 cell factory or other 4680 cell providers become available ramp production of all Model Y trims

I do not see this Model Y trim as having any bearing on 4680 pack design. You do. I am not sure if either of us is correct. Maybe some combination or other factors altogether.
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