500 mile Cybertruck w/o Si cathode? How about the Panasonic/Japan 4680 cell?

[ituner-HF]

During Q2/2023 earnings report, Tesla stated this. (see below). That makes me think that the 500-mile Cybertruck won't be available right away. Also, Panasonic stated last year that their 4680 cell for Tesla will be available in Q2/24 and my guess is that this Panasonic/Japan cell will actually be the 500-mile rage solution. Any thoughts on this? NOTE -- difficult to imagine Tesla running different lines with different chemistries, especially so early in the ramp-up process.

"Against our battery energy density targets, the cyber cell is at our expectations on a like-for-like electrochemistry basis, where we're yet to integrate silicon or in-house cathode production, both reviewed on Battery Day, which do bring significant further energy density and cost improvements. But that is a topic for another day".

Here is the link for the Panasonic announcement: https://electrek.co/2021/10/25/panasonic-unveils-tesla-4680-battery-cell-production-next-year/

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[Baldey]

Yes. You can make as big a battery as you want, it will just be heavy.

Si cathode will probably help density, but i'm no sure by how much. I would guess 10-20%. So you could have the same pack, it would just be ~15% heavier/lighter. As for timeline, i would guess this might come online a few months after the cathode plant comes online. But more likely a few years.

I do not think Panasonic/another manufacturer will get there first.. Additional production is just that, supplementary. I don't expect anyone but Tesla to lead innovation on these cells. That's why they bought Maxwell. Well that was for the DBE tech, but the battery engineers and expertise has been acquired.

 

[Crissa]

We also don't know how Tesla 'added 10%' to the 4680 cells last year. Nor do we know if that's 10% off the 4680 that was torn down, or some step in the two years between then and now.

We do know that Panasonic is millions of cells behind Tesla in their 4680 production.

-Crissa

 

[MonkeyDeLuffy]

LGES is more likely to be the main player other than Tesla. SKI could switch to supply Tesla as well. Panasonic is still up in the air.

 

[ninja6r]

During Q2/2023 earnings report, Tesla stated this. (see below). That makes me think that the 500-mile Cybertruck won't be available right away. Also, Panasonic stated last year that their 4680 cell for Tesla will be available in Q2/24 and my guess is that this Panasonic/Japan cell will actually be the 500-mile rage solution. Any thoughts on this? NOTE -- difficult to imagine Tesla running different lines with different chemistries, especially so early in the ramp-up process.

"Against our battery energy density targets, the cyber cell is at our expectations on a like-for-like electrochemistry basis, where we're yet to integrate silicon or in-house cathode production, both reviewed on Battery Day, which do bring significant further energy density and cost improvements. But that is a topic for another day".

Here is the link for the Panasonic announcement: https://electrek.co/2021/10/25/panasonic-unveils-tesla-4680-battery-cell-production-next-year/

I think the cells are where they need to be for the 500 mile version. The only issue is can they make enough to fill the orders. Right now, it looks like they can't. From what I've read, cell lines 3-4 will start producing end of the year, begining of next. I have a feeling that's the missing piece, so 3-6 months after that is probably when we'll be able to get it. Just a guess though.

 

[RVAC]

Panasonic is best positioned to make the cells for an LR variant of the Cybertruck given their NCA chemistry and the fact they already make use of silicon in the anode, albeit a small percentage. It's possible Tesla could leapfrog them in terms of energy density but chances are they're going to have their hands full getting to high volume in the next year or so, which is of utmost priority.

LGES is more likely to be the main player other than Tesla. SKI could switch to supply Tesla as well. Panasonic is still up in the air.

Of Tesla's cell suppliers Panasonic is the furthest ahead, they have already started pilot production in Japan. LG is only going to start in the second half of 2024. SKI has made no public announcements they are working on a 4680 format cell, that I'm aware of.

I think the cells are where they need to be for the 500 mile version. The only issue is can they make enough to fill the orders. Right now, it looks like they can't. From what I've read, cell lines 3-4 will start producing end of the year, begining of next. I have a feeling that's the missing piece, so 3-6 months after that is probably when we'll be able to get it. Just a guess though.

Depends upon whether they designed the vehicle to accomodate a double stack pack, if single stack only they are definitely not where they need to be for a ~500mi range version.

 

[Crissa]

Panasonic is best positioned to make the cells for an LR variant of the Cybertruck given their...

...Tesla chemistry? They have no battery facilities currently making 4680. Tesla does. So no, they're not best positioned to make batteries for the Cybertruck.

-Crissa

 

[RVAC]

...Tesla chemistry? They have no battery facilities currently making 4680. Tesla does. So no, they're not best positioned to make batteries for the Cybertruck.

-Crissa

2170 cells coming out of GigaNV are all made with Panasonic's own IP and manufacturing equipment, Tesla just owns the building. They do have a pilot line running in Japan, think along the lines of Tesla's Kato Rd. Didn't say for all Cybertrucks, rather a future LR version.

 

[Crissa]

2170 cells coming out of GigaNV are all made with Panasonic's own IP and manufacturing equipment, Tesla just owns the building. They do have a pilot line running in Japan, think along the lines of Tesla's Kato Rd. Didn't say for all Cybertrucks, rather a future LR version.

Irrelevant to the two Tesla factories spitting out 4680s that have been in vehicles for years now.

-Crissa

 

[RVAC]

Irrelevant to the two Tesla factories spitting out 4680s that have been in vehicles for years now.

-Crissa

The thread is about a LR (~500mi) Cybertruck, not all Cybertruck trims, so not irrelevant. Panasonic starts from a higher baseline when it comes to energy density than Tesla. The question is if Tesla can make energy density improvements faster than Panasonic can ramp.

 

[Crissa]

The thread is about a LR (~500mi) Cybertruck, not all Cybertruck trims, so not irrelevant. Panasonic starts from a higher baseline when it comes to energy density than Tesla. The question is if Tesla can make energy density improvements faster than Panasonic can ramp.

That's just weirdly argumentative and not at all relevant to the post it's replying to.

This:

2170 cells coming out of GigaNV are all made with Panasonic's own IP and manufacturing equipment, Tesla just owns the building. They do have a pilot line running in Japan, think along the lines of Tesla's Kato Rd. Didn't say for all Cybertrucks, rather a future LR version.

Is irrelevant to:

...the two Tesla factories spitting out 4680s that have been in vehicles for years now.

Note, I didn't say it was irrelevant to the thread, or anything else.

That Panasonic makes 2170s as a subcontractor at Tesla facilities has no bearing upon their output of 4680s, which, as far as we know, is zero.

Also, Tesla has already moved to the 'Cyber cell' which has an even better chemistry - according to the Q2 call this summer.

-Crissa

 

[RVAC]

That's just weirdly argumentative and not at all relevant to the post it's replying to.

This:


Is irrelevant to:


Note, I didn't say it was irrelevant to the thread, or anything else.

That Panasonic makes 2170s as a subcontractor at Tesla facilities has no bearing upon their output of 4680s, which, as far as we know, is zero.

Your reply suggested Panasonic is using a Tesla proprietary chemistry:

Panasonic is best positioned to make the cells for an LR variant of the Cybertruck given their ...​

...Tesla chemistry?​

​

That's a common misconception with the 2170s coming out of GigaNV, that's the only reason why I mentioned it.

Also, Tesla has already moved to the 'Cyber cell' which has an even better chemistry - according to the Q2 call this summer.

Achieved through a mechanical design improvement not chemistry related, Cleanerwatt has a good video on it.

Not to say Tesla can't do it. It's that, for the time being, Panasonic does have an energy density advantage in terms of chemistry.

 

[cvalue13]

Depends upon whether they designed the vehicle to accomodate a double stack pack, if single stack only they are definitely not where they need to be for a ~500mi range version.

“Should we offer range, payload, cabin headroom, MSRP, or a bit of each?”

 

[RVAC]

“Should we offer range, payload, cabin headroom, MSRP, or a bit of each?”

I'm tracking, there's little doubt in my mind they're going with single stack only. Just have to add the customary element of uncertainty.

 

[Crissa]

Your reply suggested Panasonic is using a Tesla proprietary chemistry:

It did not. I just said it's the one they use for Tesla, at Tesla facilities, share with Tesla, and are based upon work done at public universities. It's only vaguely proprietary, in that the how is way more difficult than the what.

That's a common misconception with the 2170s coming out of GigaNV, that's the only reason why I mentioned it.

It's not proprietary to Panasonic, though. It's developed in a partnership based upon publicly available formulas.

Achieved through a mechanical design improvement not chemistry related, Cleanerwatt has a good video on it.

I didn't say how it was achieved. But if he has a source, could you link to it? I don't actually watch every video.

Not to say Tesla can't do it. It's that, for the time being, Panasonic does have an energy density advantage in terms of chemistry.

No one has seen their development 4680s that I know of, so no, they don't. Plans is not an advantage over existing production. You seem to think that Panasonic doesn't share anything with Tesla, despite their announced partnership? They have an advantage with institutional knowledge on making batteries. They don't have an advantage on the 4680, specifically.



-Crissa

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