90% cancellation/postponement rate?

[The Tesla Guy]

My vin received this week on a beast is low 8,000 range

As you may well know, VINs are not created in production. They are generated in advance.

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[Killlbox]

Seems like I’ve seen a lot of Florida Vins assigned just this week. Cali has def the most, then Texas, now Florida.

I wonder where Wyoming is on the list
I was living in Seattle when I made the reservation and never updated my address, pretty sure that's how I got the configuration email last month.

 

[CYBEAST]

As you may well know, VINs are not created in production. They are generated in advance.

How far in advance? I thought the truck was built once a vin was sent out to the customer

 

[gham59]

How far in advance? I thought the truck was built once a vin was sent out to the customer

My understanding as well - vehicle is at least in production

 

[The Tesla Guy]

How far in advance? I thought the truck was built once a vin was sent out to the customer

Not exactly sure, just read this over and over again on the Tesla Motor Club.
I just did a search, and there are claims that it happens immediately before production. But I can say with some level certainty that existence of a VIN number does not necessarily mean that the vehicle exists yet.
Perhaps someone with more inside information can chime in here.

 

[Art138]

As you may well know, VINs are not created in production. They are generated in advance.

Can you clarify that? I thought vin was assigned upon build order……as the truck is identified to be built.

 

[CYBEAST]

Not exactly sure, just read this over and over again on the Tesla Motor Club.
I just did a search, and there are claims that it happens immediately before production. But I can say with some level certainty that existence of a VIN number does not necessarily mean that the vehicle exists yet.
Perhaps someone with more inside information can chime in here.

I used to work at Honda of America Manufacturing many moons ago. For us, of course the VIN sheet was the first thing created and how we knew what parts to put on different lots/ models of cars being built. I would guess that once the car rolls off the line to be delivered they would alert the customer. If not, you could have cars sitting at the factory waiting to be fixed or get parts for a long time.

 

[GrandEnigma]

Will also note there are many people that ordered multiple. I did the same not knowing which they would launch with so I did one of each just in case they decided to prioritize by people who had reserved a specific trim. So as of right now, only one of my per-orders hit even though they are within a couple thousand reservations of each other and current reservation numbers I see getting VINs are beyond all mine. Current plan is to wait and see the current state of CT when my next order hits to see if it is worth "upgrading" to.

 

[Cyber Man]

If someone didn’t order FS doesn’t mean they cancelled their reservation. That’s the big incorrect variable to add to the equation while doing the math, and no matter how you do the math, Tesla has enough orders in hand to produce CT for at least 2 years. Demand is the last thing they have to worry for Cybertruck. Elon has mentioned this multiple times. I just hope they reduce the AWD prices after FS, and not make more profit because of continued demand.

 

[AverageLogic]

I’ve written this before in another thread but I reserved at the exact same time as my brother and a few friends at work. Our RNs are all 1129xxxx. When I received my invite they became excited and anxiously watched for theirs. 43 days later none of them have been invited to order. Not sure why.

So I would submit that not everyone is invited to order one. I don’t know why you would or would not be selected. This is just my experience and unless anyone else had a similar situation…I wouldn’t know how else to explain it.

If someone didn’t order FS doesn’t mean they cancelled their reservation. That’s the big incorrect variable to add to the equation while doing the math, and no matter how you do the math, Tesla has enough orders in hand to produce CT for at least 2 years. Demand is the last thing they have to worry for Cybertruck. Elon has mentioned this multiple times. I just hope they reduce the AWD prices after FS, and not make more profit because of continued demand.

That’s why I said“cancellation/postponement”

As a TSLA shareholder, I want to see as few cancellations or postponements as possible.
As number 248,000 in line, I want to see as many as possible!!
I’m thinking of it as a win-win situation. LOL

 

[GrandEnigma]

I think we see Foundation until sales/conversion rates start to fall off then they will drop to $80k base, but what we dont yet know is what is the cost of the 35s and the "white" interior and the base trim or if there are any other hidden options the current truck has like Powershare compatibility or something that they might paywall for the base trim.

 

[ÆCIII]

'Postponement' means nothing specific to the Cybertruck or Tesla, because the macro economic factors and interest rates with what the economy has done to people in recent years, is suppressing all major purchases regardless of brand or type.

There isn't suppressed Cybertruck demand - but there is definitely suppressed vehicle affordability.

This too will pass at some point, but desperation to sound byte narratives is rampant right now.

- ÆCIII

 

[The Tesla Guy]

Just for the record, I can’t imagine anybody canceling.
At least those who had a $100 nonrefundable reservation fee.
Not accepting a founder series. Invitation would not cancel anybody’s order.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

My maths:
Per recall notice, -3,900 delivered
Plus ~1,100 at factory lot
Assumption: 5,000 trucks created to date.

My no. Is 11307xxxx.
Assumption: My research has suggested that I am at about 248,000 in line.
Chart in this forum from last month suggests I’ll get invite around last week in April (chart made prior to recall).

Assumption: Twice as many trucks ordered than VINs created, namely 10K trucks formally ordered.

My number is on the near horizon, so let’s say 10,000 ordered/200,000 order invites
…that’s 5%!

Say my maths is off by factor of two, thus…
Cancellation/postponement rate of 90%

Does this check out?
What is known/do we have any other intel?

Bonus Q: Will EM & co reveal cancellation rate at Apr 23rd mtg?

The 5% makes sense with the reasoning I have used. I think that someone with a RN11307 got the invite this week. If Tesla is still doing FS invites yours must be imminent.

 

[The Tesla Guy]

For reference this is my timeline.

• 11/22/19 -Reserved (RN11289xxxx)

• 3/5/24 -received FS invite

• 3/12/24 -ordered AWD FS (Vancouver, WA delivery)

• 38 days ago - no VIN yet

• 3/25/25 Confirmed Long Term Stockholder Eligibility (uploaded Statements)

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