90% cancellation/postponement rate?

[ricinro]

'Postponement' means nothing specific to the Cybertruck or Tesla, because the macro economic factors and interest rates with what the economy has done to people in recent years, is suppressing all major purchases regardless of brand or type.

There isn't suppressed Cybertruck demand - but there is definitely suppressed vehicle affordability.

This too will pass at some point, but desperation to sound byte narratives is rampant right now.

- ÆCIII

Price also affects affordability. I was expecting pricing to be close to what they advertised due to the advances of the 4680.
I also imagine folks were going to cash in some of their TSLA to afford such a luxury truck but TSLA is currently doing poorly and not expected to recover until a year or so? Perhaps Tesla will eventually discount the CT close to the price when we placed our reservations and perhaps they will eventually improve the costs of their batteries and perhaps TSLA will climb and perhaps interest rates will come down and perhaps Tesla will convert a greater percentage of reservations into sales. But I expect the novelty to wear off as many of these trucks become common and interest naturally declines.

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[Bartman]

My maths:
Per recall notice, -3,900 delivered
Plus ~1,100 at factory lot
Assumption: 5,000 trucks created to date.

My no. Is 11307xxxx.
Assumption: My research has suggested that I am at about 248,000 in line.
Chart in this forum from last month suggests I’ll get invite around last week in April (chart made prior to recall).

Assumption: Twice as many trucks ordered than VINs created, namely 10K trucks formally ordered.

My number is on the near horizon, so let’s say 10,000 ordered/200,000 order invites
…that’s 5

Say my maths is off by factor of two, thus…
Cancellation/postponement rate of 90%

Does this check out?
What is known/do we have any other intel?

Bonus Q: Will EM & co reveal cancellation rate at Apr 23rd mtg?

I agree your math is likely pretty close. I was thinking along the same lines, using the same logic.

 

[Alpine]

As unique as the CT is, one thing we know for sure is the 100k+ truck market is less than 1% of overall truck sales. Very few people buy a truck in that range so for the FS your estimate checks out i think

 

[HyperReality]

Foundation Series Trim and Price retention. Once it stops the orders will explode. It's also gotten more awkward since FSD isn't available on CT yet, but also Tesla has lowered the monthly for FSD and the 12k price for it isn't an obvious benefit to everyone... Not unless Tesla make it regular for people to transfer to other vehicles in the future.

 

[Cold.Truth]

I might have missed a comment but one thing to also consider aside from cancellations are new reservations.

The Cybertruck is a total ROCK STAR. Today (4/19), I had a kid in a Jeep making a turn in a large, busy intersection when I noticed he was filming me while making the turn and trying to watch for traffic. He accepted significant additional risk just to have that CT snapshot. Insanity. And he’s not alone. I almost cringe when I drive my Cybertruck anywhere and see all the gawkers. I don’t mind the simple thumbs-up from folks, but the paparazzi types are a bit creepy, LOL. I get it. Comes with the territory. Anyway, there’s an i/o function to consider. Yes, there surely are cancellations BUT there are also new reservations. My two cents.

 

[ThaDon]

I hope that math is directionally correct. If so, they’ll get fulfilled pretty quick (at least the first million).

 

[Gvardaman]

Interesting. I was thinking something similar. I ordered a few hours after the orders were opened on announcement day and , after seeing the rolls here, expected my reservation would come up early 2025. This would allow my TSLA stock to gain a bit back (allowing me to afford the CT) and get past the Foundation series and the fully loaded upcharges.
Imagine my surprise when I get my letter from Tesla to configure my CT in the middle of March! I am in California, which may make a difference for deliveries (I would expect Texas and California to be earlier due to number of service centers, chargers, Tesla infrastructure, etc.)
Needless to say, I was also hoping the pricing might return to the announcement numbers, or at least close, and did not expect the stock to drop just prior to my chance. I go check on my configuration screens every few days,. I hope it is still available when I can afford it.

 

[GuyV]

My vin received this week on a beast is low 8,000 range

My VIN received last night is 38xx after 114 days since configuration. There's no discernable invitation and assignment methodology.

 

[pricedm]

Cancellation is not the same as postponement, delaying, or holding the invite to configure.

Many buyers are looking at the upcoming $7,500 - $12,500 tax credit as a reason to not move forward with ordering today. But they will order-- in large numbers. Some are waiting because they want VIN 50,000 or VIN 100,000.

Canceling...very few have canceled. Most are waiting. Some--in the thousands--have purchased.

Soon the Cybertruck will be as common as the Tesla Model X or Tesla Model S. Soon after that, the Cybertruck will be as common as the Model 3.

Check out Sandy Munro's solid logic. He pretty much told a room full of legacy car makers to get with the times or get out of the business:

 

[CBTK2463]

My vin is in 2000 and my reservation in line is around 90k

 

[Cyberman]

My maths:
Per recall notice, -3,900 delivered
Plus ~1,100 at factory lot
Assumption: 5,000 trucks created to date.

My no. Is 11307xxxx.
Assumption: My research has suggested that I am at about 248,000 in line.
Chart in this forum from last month suggests I’ll get invite around last week in April (chart made prior to recall).

Assumption: Twice as many trucks ordered than VINs created, namely 10K trucks formally ordered.

My number is on the near horizon, so let’s say 10,000 ordered/200,000 order invites
…that’s 5%!

Say my maths is off by factor of two, thus…
Cancellation/postponement rate of 90%

Does this check out?
What is known/do we have any other intel?

Bonus Q: Will EM & co reveal cancellation rate at Apr 23rd mtg?

I'm number 216,000 in line, I've received the invite but not biting yet, so you should be close.
I really think they've only made about 20 CT's, and they're just making us dizzy circulating 'em around the states.

 

[U92]

I know it’s far from exact but here’s my assumption about why it’s about a 10% conversion rate on the reservations.

my 11279 rn was about 42,000 in line. I took home vin number 55xx. So 5500 is 13% of 42000 but there are gaps in vins so….

Again, I know many reasons why you can’t do this exact math formula and expect it to be accurate, but from 30,000 feet up in the air. It makes sense to me to approximate that way.

A lot of the early reservation holders were 5x or 10x from the same person lol people thinking they could sell them is my guess too.

 

[Cropman]

I think a LOT of people impulse dropped $100 for a place in line to get the truck. The whole world has changed since November 2019 so it's understanding there's lots of cancelations.

You mean since they quit guaranteeing the price and the distance is way off? Hard to believe that could lead to cancellations.

 

[SteelMyHeart]

Interesting. I was thinking something similar. I ordered a few hours after the orders were opened on announcement day and , after seeing the rolls here, expected my reservation would come up early 2025. This would allow my TSLA stock to gain a bit back (allowing me to afford the CT) and get past the Foundation series and the fully loaded upcharges.
Imagine my surprise when I get my letter from Tesla to configure my CT in the middle of March! I am in California, which may make a difference for deliveries (I would expect Texas and California to be earlier due to number of service centers, chargers, Tesla infrastructure, etc.)
Needless to say, I was also hoping the pricing might return to the announcement numbers, or at least close, and did not expect the stock to drop just prior to my chance. I go check on my configuration screens every few days,. I hope it is still available when I can afford it.

100% agree tx and ca are first due to parts and service centers and customer base in California is largest.

I think AI is used in part to help with order logistics. They use AI for fsd so why not use it for order logistics? I think they take RN numbers and use AI to organize them by order date and geography which is why you seen vins issued in bunches to florida etc. They want to optimize shipping costs by bringing down the price by sending say 15 trucks instead of 3 to Utah. It means some people have much slower or quicker order to vin than others.

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