90% cancellation/postponement rate?

[Sjohnson20]

$100 was too cheap for the reservation. It bloated out the reservation list and now Tesla has to work through them all. It's been 5 months and what are they still on the first week or so from 2019?

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[Mark2sday]

I configured my cyberbeast end of Jan. Got the PowerShare home survey about a week later, but still waiting on a VIN…

 

[Obecalb]

My maths:
Per recall notice, -3,900 delivered
Plus ~1,100 at factory lot
Assumption: 5,000 trucks created to date.

My no. Is 11307xxxx.
Assumption: My research has suggested that I am at about 248,000 in line.
Chart in this forum from last month suggests I’ll get invite around last week in April (chart made prior to recall).

Assumption: Twice as many trucks ordered than VINs created, namely 10K trucks formally ordered.

My number is on the near horizon, so let’s say 10,000 ordered/200,000 order invites
…that’s 5%!

Say my maths is off by factor of two, thus…
Cancellation/postponement rate of 90%

Does this check out?
What is known/do we have any other intel?

Bonus Q: Will EM & co reveal cancellation rate at Apr 23rd mtg?

I just got my VIN last week and was around 60,000 in line. So if 5000 have been produced, that is an order rate of 1 in 12. A lot higher than I expected at the current price point.

 

[rrolsbe]

Cybertruck reveal was on Nov 21st 2019
Reserved on Nov 23rd 2019
Reservation Number RN112908xxx
Updated reservation on June 7th 2020 to add FSD to lock in price of $8000? I believe the price at the reveal was 7K?

According to the spreadsheet, I am about 180K? in line for the Cybertruck.
Received email to order FS on Mar 5th 2024

Have not ordered the FS to date but still it shows I could.

 

[BESTNJ]

I'd expect reservation to order conversion rates to drop the deeper Tesla gets into the list as the most ardent fans ordered in the first few minutes, hours and days. Weeks to months later? Eh, sure I'll drop in a reservation.

I placed a Dec 2019 reservation for a $50K dual motor thinking that was the best value in the unveil lineup. Now? That same dual-motor Cybertruck is literally twice the price, wow.

With sticky high interest rates (that may go even higher before they start dropping) and prices that are much, much, higher I'm not at all surprised at the conversion rates. Also the deeper we get into the production ramp the closer we get to the end of the Foundation Series so for those of us who question the $20K upcharge and don't mind waiting another few months after 4.5 years it's perfectly expected to have growing pass rates on Foundation Series.

In the nearly five years that will pass for many of us who placed reservations, there are a large number of other EV's which have been launched which are increasingly compelling, especially once NACS ports proliferate in Model Year 2025. We also know Tesla, and prices will fall in the future. So that $80K dual motor, once it's available, probably drops to $70K by late 2025 and even $60K in 2026.

Me? I picked up a used Model S Plaid from the Tesla Used store almost exactly a year ago. It's worth ~$50-60K today. Is the Foundation Series dual motor twice the vehicle of my Plaid? I'm not so sure. Might as well wait until the first price cut, which we know to be $80K, and which we also know will hit later this year.

Hi there,

I appreciate the continued discussion on future pricing of the CT.

I would like to respectfully point out that the statement or the common misconception about "the future price cut to $80k", that is NOT an accurate statement. I picked up the CT-FS-AWD 3 weeks ago, the window sticker says "$80k" for the truck... the "FS" package says "$20k".

The $20k FS has it's value! Sure, you may not agree with buying mostly of the available options (including FSD and the $4k wheel package) as a bundle, but when I dropped the $100k for my CT, I didn't feel I get "ripped off" by Tesla.... they actually gave me something for the $20k I spent, I probably would pay $12k extra if I have a choice... unlike buying a Toyota Sienna in 2022-2023, many sdealers charged ppl $8,000 above MSRP because "the demand is high/ aka: dealer adjustment fee"... Those Sienna buyers received ABSOLUTELY NOTHING extra for the $8k they dropped in additionto the full MSRP... and BTW, during peace time, you are expected to get $2K-3k off from MSRP for that same Sienna, so, ppl paid $11k extra for a family van and got nothing EXTRA.

So, I really want to urge people to stop saying "$20,000 tax/ to jump the line fee" or "will buy a discounted or regular CT at $80k". Just remember $80k CT-AWD is a barebone truck.

 

[CyberFitch]

I’ve written this before in another thread but I reserved at the exact same time as my brother and a few friends at work. Our RNs are all 1129xxxx. When I received my invite they became excited and anxiously watched for theirs. 43 days later none of them have been invited to order. Not sure why.

So I would submit that not everyone is invited to order one. I don’t know why you would or would not be selected. This is just my experience and unless anyone else had a similar situation…I wouldn’t know how else to explain it.

maybe some preference as given to existing Tesla owners?

 

[CyberFitch]

Hi there,

I appreciate the continued discussion on future pricing of the CT.

I would like to respectfully point out that the statement or the common misconception about "the future price cut to $80k", that is NOT an accurate statement. I picked up the CT-FS-AWD 3 weeks ago, the window sticker says "$80k" for the truck... the "FS" package says "$20k".

The $20k FS has it's value! Sure, you may not agree with buying mostly of the available options (including FSD and the $4k wheel package) as a bundle, but when I dropped the $100k for my CT, I didn't feel I get "ripped off" by Tesla.... they actually gave me something for the $20k I spent, I probably would pay $12k extra if I have a choice... unlike buying a Toyota Sienna in 2022-2023, many sdealers charged ppl $8,000 above MSRP because "the demand is high/ aka: dealer adjustment fee"... Those Sienna buyers received ABSOLUTELY NOTHING extra for the $8k they dropped in additionto the full MSRP... and BTW, during peace time, you are expected to get $2K-3k off from MSRP for that same Sienna, so, ppl paid $11k extra for a family van and got nothing EXTRA.

So, I really want to urge people to stop saying "$20,000 tax/ to jump the line fee" or "will buy a discounted or regular CT at $80k". Just remember $80k CT-AWD is a barebone truck.

 

[CyberFitch]

I think the bottom line here is pricing.

At $50k people were looking at ~$1000/month. Now it’s ~$2000
people are paying more per month for every single impute in their life.

I simply think a lot of people are crying themselves to sleep Because they have to be fiscally responsible.

nothing to do with EM, stock price or competitive offerings.

me no fucking way I’m crying myself to sleep. When my numbers up I’m sprinting to the pick up location!

 

[CYBERUN]

Here is my math- My vin assigned this week is in the low 8,000 range. If I take my order number 11275xxxx minus the first CT vin 112744100, it's a 12,000 difference. I think I figured 38% off of the 12,000 reservation numbers ahead of me. So if 30% of all orders are beasts, how many are cancelling? Im not good with math lol

Reservation number are assigned not just for CT… anything you order from Tesla go to same reservation count…
If you reserved a CT and Model Y at almost the same time, you could have sequential reservation numbers.

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

My maths:
Per recall notice, -3,900 delivered
Plus ~1,100 at factory lot
Assumption: 5,000 trucks created to date.

My no. Is 11307xxxx.
Assumption: My research has suggested that I am at about 248,000 in line.
Chart in this forum from last month suggests I’ll get invite around last week in April (chart made prior to recall).

Assumption: Twice as many trucks ordered than VINs created, namely 10K trucks formally ordered.

My number is on the near horizon, so let’s say 10,000 ordered/200,000 order invites
…that’s 5%!

Say my maths is off by factor of two, thus…
Cancellation/postponement rate of 90%

Does this check out?
What is known/do we have any other intel?

Bonus Q: Will EM & co reveal cancellation rate at Apr 23rd mtg?

Imho
Cancellation rate is relevant for the bottom line. The reservation rate today, tomorrow and down the line, matters equally or maybe more. They might even balance each other out and match production rate......you want 'buyers' to get their CT and not have to wait for years. Still waiting since day 1 res.
And Aussies aren't even sure it's coming to Oz.
'l'm A Believer' ( The Monkees )

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

I think the bottom line here is pricing.

At $50k people were looking at ~$1000/month. Now it’s ~$2000
people are paying more per month for every single impute in their life.

I simply think a lot of people are crying themselves to sleep Because they have to be fiscally responsible.

nothing to do with EM, stock price or competitive offerings.

me no fucking way I’m crying myself to sleep. When my numbers up I’m sprinting to the pick up location!

YOLO
I can see you now...'pole' position!
THE FLYING FITCH

 

[Mini2nut]

The current FS 20" wheel and tire package looks awesome on the CT.

When the "normal" $80k AWD version starts production these would be a $3500 to $4500 check box when going down the options list.

 

[EmJay]

maybe some preference as given to existing Tesla owners?

Yeah that could be true. I see a lot of first time Tesla folks on here which is exciting but then it doesn’t fit the idea you proposed. I have solar roof, power walls and this will be my 4th Tesla. So I would fit the idea.

 

[Rockwell]

I got VIN 3400 and my place in line was around 7800

I also have VIN 34XX, but I was 143,000 in line with RN 11288xxx

Ordered 2/23/24, VIN 3/18/24 and delivery 10 days later on 3/28/24 - 34 days from ordering to delivery. The only things I can think of that made it so relatively fast is being in the CA SF Bay Area, have 3 Powerwalls, and a Model Y? Or maybe none of those things and it was just luck of the draw.

Other than that, I have no other connection or advantage like stockholder or celebrity/influencer, employee... But there are others who are also in this same area with Powerwalls or multiple Teslas and still haven't gotten an invite or a VIN....so who knows what the process is?

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