Sponsored

Conversion Rate through December 2026 and first 550,000 units -- what's your guesstimate?

Given the stated assumptions what will be the conversion rate for the first 550,000 units thru 2026


  • Total voters
    111

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
166
Messages
10,735
Reaction score
27,050
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
60 to 90 seconds per casting

Take it as 90 seconds, and take 10% of the year as downtime.

=28,382,400 seconds, divided by 90 = 315,360 CT per year.

______________________________________________

go faster than 90 seconds, a little less downtime = 375,000 CT's per year, which is what Elon said.
do we have solid confirmation that the 9kt press can run at this speed?

Wondering is we’ve been operating under an assumption for a long time based on projecting from the 6kt press.
Sponsored

 

Coolbreeze704

Well-known member
First Name
Bruce
Joined
Nov 23, 2019
Threads
15
Messages
1,418
Reaction score
3,774
Location
Troutman,NC
Vehicles
2022 Model Y, 23 Lightning, CyberTruck (someday)
Occupation
GM Manufactured Homes
Country flag
I'm not allowed to get a truck costing more than a third of our house.

-Crissa
Time to buy a new home to help out the truck purchase? ;)
 


Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
166
Messages
10,735
Reaction score
27,050
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
Most important question isn’t answered here.

Is there still sail pillar storage?
 

RayzorBEV

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 8, 2019
Threads
5
Messages
1,616
Reaction score
3,546
Location
Texas
Vehicles
H-M3 P, CB FS, CB FS, CB, J-MY P, Zero S ZF
Occupation
Electric Bum
Country flag
I'm not allowed to get a truck costing more than a third of our house.

-Crissa
Well, if your house is over a million, then it will work out :D
 

RayzorBEV

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 8, 2019
Threads
5
Messages
1,616
Reaction score
3,546
Location
Texas
Vehicles
H-M3 P, CB FS, CB FS, CB, J-MY P, Zero S ZF
Occupation
Electric Bum
Country flag
Most important question isn’t answered here.

Is there still sail pillar storage?
I'm afraid the sail pillar storage had set sailed...
 

charliemagpie

Well-known member
First Name
Charlie
Joined
Jul 6, 2021
Threads
48
Messages
2,982
Reaction score
5,369
Location
Australia
Vehicles
CybrBEAST
Occupation
retired
Country flag
do we have solid confirmation that the 9kt press can run at this speed?

Wondering is we’ve been operating under an assumption for a long time based on projecting from the 6kt press.
You are correct, we dont. But we don't know if they are faster either.

Maybe the 6 ton do it in 70 seconds, and 9 tons in 80 seconds. ?

But Elon did say 375,000. That we do know.
 


cvalue13

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 17, 2022
Threads
74
Messages
7,153
Reaction score
13,769
Location
Austin, TX
Vehicles
F150L
Occupation
Fun-employed
Country flag
But Elon did say 375,000. That we do know.
when?

mare you confusing what Elon’s said with what Tesla told parts suppliers to be prepared for at max ramp?

because the latter has been pretty well established to include a customary 30-35% overage for spare parts and maintenance stock. which puts you at 250K vehicle units, when at full ramp

Where has Musk separately said 375K vehicle units, unless you’re instead taking a mean between his hemming and hawing about 250-500 at Roundup? In which case saying “Elon said 375” is a strange phrasing!
 

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
166
Messages
10,735
Reaction score
27,050
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
You are correct, we dont. But we don't know if they are faster either.

Maybe the 6 ton do it in 70 seconds, and 9 tons in 80 seconds. ?

But Elon did say 375,000. That we do know.
Yep.

Though there are hints maybe a third 9 k ton press might be in the works…
 

Greshnab

Well-known member
First Name
Doug
Joined
May 14, 2023
Threads
4
Messages
338
Reaction score
507
Location
Fort Worth, Tx
Vehicles
Model Y
Occupation
Software Arrchitect
Country flag
Still listed as a feature on the site. Unlike many of the hairball ideas floating around
at this time i wouldn't consider the cybertruck website to be an accurate reflection of their intentions.. since they de-linked it from the main tesla page they stopped maintaining it.

when they put a link to it from tesla.com THEN i suspect it will be maintained and updated.
 

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
166
Messages
10,735
Reaction score
27,050
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
at this time i wouldn't consider the cybertruck website to be an accurate reflection of their intentions.. since they de-linked it from the main tesla page they stopped maintaining it.

when they put a link to it from tesla.com THEN i suspect it will be maintained and updated.
Hit menu and it’s right there where it’s been for a long time. Not sure what you mean by stopped maintaining it. It’s not broken, just hasn’t been updated.

Tesla Cybertruck Conversion Rate through December 2026 and first 550,000 units -- what's your guesstimate? 1689040586533
Sponsored

 
 








Top