Conversion Rate through December 2026 and first 550,000 units -- what's your guesstimate?

[Greshnab]

i was talking about the menu across the top..

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[Jhodgesatmb]

Yep.

Though there are hints maybe a third 9 k ton press might be in the works…

They redid the foundation at the NE corner of GigaAustin. I can only think of one reason why they would do that and there is room for 2 9KT gigapresses there. That said, there have been no gigapress deliveries since press #2, but in the video where Joe showed the 2 9KT gigapresses there were some components for a gigapress.

 

[Ogre]

i was talking about the menu across the top..

There is a big difference between being moved off the top bar and stopping maintenance on it.

I find it kind of silly that people have fallen so in love with their pet theories that they are willing to toss out the few resources which Tesla has given us about the truck.

Lots of claims about a huge vault shrink and sail pillars getting deleted. But it’s going to be awful difficult for Tesla to hit that 100 cubic foot secure storage they are claiming.

Of course… people seem to think the launch night and the site is make believe so we’re just supposed to guess what the truck is like based on fan theories based on bent light and pixel counts. ?

 

[cvalue13]

Of course… people seem to think the launch night and the site is make believe so we’re just supposed to guess what the truck is like based on fan theories based on bent light and pixel counts. ?

people can just go pull receipts of all the stuff on the site you no longer believe is included, and all the stuff never on the site you champion as being included

The buffet style hypocrisy isn’t lost on anyone, and it’s cringe

 

[Crissa]

I’ve seen what a $1 million buys you in the Bay Area and I’m pretty sure you guys are set ?

Well, if your house is over a million, then it will work out

Our house is not the median home. Think closer to a tenth that. A Dual Motor would fit under a third of its price.

i was talking about the menu across the top..

They change that all the time, though; and it varies based upon what you're using to view the site. When they have a new model or promotion, it goes to the first item, if preorders are getting long, they take it off the list.

-Crissa

 

[charliemagpie]

when?

mare you confusing what Elon’s said with what Tesla told parts suppliers to be prepared for at max ramp?

because the latter has been pretty well established to include a customary 30-35% overage for spare parts and maintenance stock. which puts you at 250K vehicle units, when at full ramp

Where has Musk separately said 375K vehicle units, unless you’re instead taking a mean between his hemming and hawing about 250-500 at Roundup? In which case saying “Elon said 375” is a strange phrasing!

Musk said maybe 500,000, so we will take that instead.

 

[anionic1]

A lot of this sounds way too organized and communicative for Tesla. It’s more likely to happen like this.

Tesla has a first deliveries event. 2 months later Electrek posts that people in Austin are getting emails to reserve the truck with deliveries late q4 2023. People start posting videos of their amazing experiences with the CT and 25,000 are sold and delivered in the last quarter alone (take that Rivian). Next we hear California is getting deliveries and people are getting emails to place orders and it seems like for a couple months only select states, regardless of reservation number are getting deliveries. Tesla is now maximizing order by regional reservation density and likelyhood of order fulfillment. They will likely prioritize reservation number regionally, but sorry day one reservation order Tom in Kansas you may have to wait for your delivery. Because even though they charge everyone the same delivery fee, that can be a huge profit center for them if it only cost them $400/truck to deliver to more dense order areas. So they maximize sales by regionally delivering more cheaply. After about 150,000 sold and they are now actually making profit on the CT, they start going by reservation number in less reservation sense areas. All the while not communicating anything to reservation holders jealously watching people post their CT adventures on Facebook or whatever app is cool at the time. By about 300,000 vehicles they are now picking off the reservation list full force and still have a supply demand huge advantage so the conversion rate is around 60%. It’s q1 2025, people have now figured out the reservation sequence and almost everyone can convert their reservation to an order but it could be a year wait. By end of 2025 they are approaching 600,000 CTs delivered and demand is still strong and they have cleared out almost all reservation holders with a conversion rate of about 30-40% depending on where the pricing actually lands.

It’s 2026, the Irvine police department has now converted entirely to CTs, production is at 500,000 CTs per year, it’s Teslas second most popular vehicle and it’s priced more competitively than any other EV truck. All the other start ups making trucks went BK. Rivian is really struggling and likely to go BK and is extremely proud to have hand built 100k trucks over 6 years and is still loosing $100k per truck sale and Rivian owners start quickly trying to offload their trucks in fear of maintenance support once Rivian goes under.

It’s 2027, the CT now outsells more than all other EV trucks combined and the government is handing the other US automakers $20B annually to subsidize them into staying solvent and they keep coming up with some new reason to need more money. Autopilot actually works now and Optimus is now selling and is able to drive the CT so delivery workers are beginning to strike. Elon purchased Switzerland to further take free speech to the next level in the monetary system. The starship is finally landing on mars with a gnarly converted CT rover on it.

It’s 2028, the CT now finally has the features actual workers have been asking for and they are up to 750,000 per year. People no longer have to ghetto rig the CT to make it functional in their work capacity and aftermarket features actually have connection points for almost any different product end uses. And functional has won the battle over intuitive once and for all. Autopilot is so good that child labor states allow 10 year olds to get drivers licenses to be alone in the CT. Everyone is pretty sure that Elon has now transferred himself into an Optimus robot cloud and it’s becoming more and more obvious that the AI partnered with him is spiraling out of self learning and is actually self destructive. Elon tries to buy the grasslands (all of them) to extend his free speech ideology to food, but by now we are pretty sure he is a robot AI trying to control the planet so we only allow him to buy the grasslands in California where basically there are only a couple hundred aggregation acres left from politics and the drought and California us desperate to take him back left alone any of the emigrants that left the state.

It’s 2029 and the CT is the best selling car in the world. They are producing 1M per year and now they run off solid state batteries made from recycled batteries, salt water and plastic grocery bags. Apple finally has a car out. It’s all next generation glass and looks exactly like a large iPhone with wheels. It’s creatively called the iCarzero. You can’t buy it but subscribe to it for $5k per month and it magically appears when you need it. No one knows how to actually charge it and there are intuitively no controls but it connects flawlessly to all your apple devices and Siri knows where to take you based on algorithms that evaluated every aspect of your being because you checked a box at the end of a 50 page small font digital agreement telling Apple it’s ok to do so.

If you read this far I congratulate you and I hope it was at least partially funny. I have a newborn and am only partially coherent so I will stop this here. My vote is 40% conversion. Good night my fellow CT enthusiasts.

 

[Ogre]

A lot of this sounds way too organized and communicative for Tesla. It’s more likely to happen like this.

Tesla has a first deliveries event. 2 months later Electrek posts that people in Austin are getting emails to reserve the truck with deliveries late q4 2023. People start posting videos of their amazing experiences with the CT and 25,000 are sold and delivered in the last quarter alone (take that Rivian). Next we hear California is getting deliveries and people are getting emails to place orders and it seems like for a couple months only select states, regardless of reservation number are getting deliveries. Tesla is now maximizing order by regional reservation density and likelyhood of order fulfillment. They will likely prioritize reservation number regionally, but sorry day one reservation order Tom in Kansas you may have to wait for your delivery. Because even though they charge everyone the same delivery fee, that can be a huge profit center for them if it only cost them $400/truck to deliver to more dense order areas. So they maximize sales by regionally delivering more cheaply. After about 150,000 sold and they are now actually making profit on the CT, they start going by reservation number in less reservation sense areas. All the while not communicating anything to reservation holders jealously watching people post their CT adventures on Facebook or whatever app is cool at the time. By about 300,000 vehicles they are now picking off the reservation list full force and still have a supply demand huge advantage so the conversion rate is around 60%. It’s q1 2025, people have now figured out the reservation sequence and almost everyone can convert their reservation to an order but it could be a year wait. By end of 2025 they are approaching 600,000 CTs delivered and demand is still strong and they have cleared out almost all reservation holders with a conversion rate of about 30-40% depending on where the pricing actually lands.

It’s 2026, the Irvine police department has now converted entirely to CTs, production is at 500,000 CTs per year, it’s Teslas second most popular vehicle and it’s priced more competitively than any other EV truck. All the other start ups making trucks went BK. Rivian is really struggling and likely to go BK and is extremely proud to have hand built 100k trucks over 6 years and is still loosing $100k per truck sale and Rivian owners start quickly trying to offload their trucks in fear of maintenance support once Rivian goes under.

It’s 2027, the CT now outsells more than all other EV trucks combined and the government is handing the other US automakers $20B annually to subsidize them into staying solvent and they keep coming up with some new reason to need more money. Autopilot actually works now and Optimus is now selling and is able to drive the CT so delivery workers are beginning to strike. Elon purchased Switzerland to further take free speech to the next level in the monetary system. The starship is finally landing on mars with a gnarly converted CT rover on it.

It’s 2028, the CT now finally has the features actual workers have been asking for and they are up to 750,000 per year. People no longer have to ghetto rig the CT to make it functional in their work capacity and aftermarket features actually have connection points for almost any different product end uses. And functional has won the battle over intuitive once and for all. Autopilot is so good that child labor states allow 10 year olds to get drivers licenses to be alone in the CT. Everyone is pretty sure that Elon has now transferred himself into an Optimus robot cloud and it’s becoming more and more obvious that the AI partnered with him is spiraling out of self learning and is actually self destructive. Elon tries to buy the grasslands (all of them) to extend his free speech ideology to food, but by now we are pretty sure he is a robot AI trying to control the planet so we only allow him to buy the grasslands in California where basically there are only a couple hundred aggregation acres left from politics and the drought and California us desperate to take him back left alone any of the emigrants that left the state.

It’s 2029 and the CT is the best selling car in the world. They are producing 1M per year and now they run off solid state batteries made from recycled batteries, salt water and plastic grocery bags. Apple finally has a car out. It’s all next generation glass and looks exactly like a large iPhone with wheels. It’s creatively called the iCarzero. You can’t buy it but subscribe to it for $5k per month and it magically appears when you need it. No one knows how to actually charge it and there are intuitively no controls but it connects flawlessly to all your apple devices and Siri knows where to take you based on algorithms that evaluated every aspect of your being because you checked a box at the end of a 50 page small font digital agreement telling Apple it’s ok to do so.

If you read this far I congratulate you and I hope it was at least partially funny. I have a newborn and am only partially coherent so I will stop this here. My vote is 40% conversion. Good night my fellow CT enthusiasts.

There is certainly much truth here. But it won’t take 150k deliveries to get to chuck in Kansas. There will be a train going to Kansas City within the first 50,000 deliveries, Tesla wants them seen and talked about. Can’t have buzz if you don’t have presence.

 

[anionic1]

There is certainly much truth here. But it won’t take 150k deliveries to get to chuck in Kansas. There will be a train going to Kansas City within the first 50,000 deliveries, Tesla wants them seen and talked about. Can’t have buzz if you don’t have presence.

True that.

 

[anionic1]

do we have solid confirmation that the 9kt press can run at this speed?

Wondering is we’ve been operating under an assumption for a long time based on projecting from the 6kt press.

One of the Idra interviews they said it had about a 2 min cycle time. There will obviously be some down time and maintenance time. I think the casting is definitely the bottle neck and thats why they have 2 of them right now. One for the front and one for the rear. That's why Elon stated about 250,000 per year then ramp up to 500,000 depending on demand. 250,000 is probably a reasonable expectation per year.

 

[anionic1]

I'm not allowed to get a truck costing more than a third of our house.

-Crissa

What are you allowed to spend on one of these? House on wheels so at least 150% of house value right? Get 12kW of solar power on that roof and never plug in again.

 

[RayzorBEV]

I'm allocating $150k for my Quad-Motor Cybertruck ?

 

[charliemagpie]

irony is, it will cost me about that in Australian dollars if it comes in at US$80,000

 

[EVSport7]

Big story...

This is better than most movies out right now. ?

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